Forget the Anthropic IPO. Here Are 6 Stocks Worth Watching.

The potential Anthropic initial public offering is the center of a lot of investor attention, but investors shouldn't lose sight of already public companies that are set for success.

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR), AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN), D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS), and Redwire (NYSE: RDW) are six names to watch.

Here's a look at what it would take for each of those stocks to double by 2028 -- which starts in just 14 months -- and how realistic it is to expect them to reach that goal.

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IonQ must prove that quantum computing can become a real business

IonQ has a market cap of about $12.5 billion. For it to grow to $25 billion, investors will need confidence that its technology can reach commercial viability. Given that quantum computing is still in a relatively early stage of development, that could take years.

One thing investors should watch for is the company's conversion of its $485 million in remaining performance obligations (RPO) into revenue. About half of that revenue is expected within a year. Plus, IonQ has about $2.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, or roughly four years of runway.

Still, the company has been raising capital, including a $2 billion equity offering it conducted this month. Further dilution risk is real with this stock.

Can Archer's air taxis move beyond test flights?

Archer Aviation aims to reshape how people travel with its air taxis.

Archer's path to doubling its current market cap of $3.1 billion to over $6 billion depends on the company earning regulatory certification for its electric aircraft, bringing them into production, and launching the business commercially. Its progress on the operational side makes the bull case more realistic.

On top of that, Archer's $1.6 billion in cash and short-term investments gives it about two and a half years of runway.

That said, dilution risk looms if R&D costs exceed funding. Slow commercial adoption could also weaken the bull case.

AST SpaceMobile wants to deliver satellite broadband to ordinary smartphones

AST SpaceMobile hopes to change how people stay connected.

For the company to double its market cap from about $15.8 billion to over $32 billion by 2028, it will have to hit two milestones: deploying a satellite network and generating revenue from carrier agreements.

The company is working toward both goals, but its execution risk is still significant, making the bull case less certain.

AST has $2.3 billion in cash, or about one year of runway. Building its satellite network requires substantial financing, so dilution risk is a major concern.

SoundHound's voice AI could become a key growth engine

SoundHound AI is using voice AI to power businesses.

For SoundHound's market cap to double from $2.1 billion to over $4 billion, it must secure more enterprise clients. In fact, revenue is growing strongly as more businesses adopt its OASYS platform, making the bull case more achievable.

Investors should monitor how quickly it can convert its $60 million in contracted business into revenue; the company expects $37.3 million to convert within a year.

In addition, SoundHound has $202.8 million in cash and equivalents on its books, or over a year and a half of runway. That said, funding its operations continues to pose notable dilution risk.

Quantum cloud access must become recurring revenue for D-Wave

D-Wave is beginning to bring the power of quantum computing to commercial applications.

It could double its $4.5 billion market cap to over $9 billion by 2028 if its tech stack gains broader commercial adoption. However, quantum computing adoption is still in its early stages, and the tech is not yet truly commercially viable, so the timeline could take even longer.

The statistic to watch with D-Wave is recurring cloud-access revenue, which rose to $1.9 million in the second quarter from $1.2 million a year earlier. Plus, $40.7 million of its contracted business has yet to convert to revenue, with about 57% expected within a year.

D-Wave currently has $546.2 million in cash and marketable securities, or nearly four years of runway, though dilution risk remains as it invests in its quantum technology.

Space and defense demand could drive Redwire's revenue growth

Redwire is counting on rising demand for space and defense technology.

To double its market cap from $2.1 billion to over $4 billion by 2028, it will have to convert its $542.1 million backlog into strong revenue growth. It's worth noting that its backlog has been growing, and rising revenue strengthens the bull case.

Redwire also holds $557.7 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, giving it a runway of over eight years at its current pace of spending. That said, it faces execution risks around its contracts and further dilution as it funds operations.

Can these six stocks double by 2028?

Promising technology is one thing, but turning it into strong shareholder returns is another.

Redwire and SoundHound have the most realistic paths to doubling by 2028 and could be the safest options of the six. Archer Aviation and AST SpaceMobile appear to be higher-risk picks that hinge on execution. IonQ and D-Wave rank further down in terms of their likelihood to deliver for shareholders, as quantum computing may take longer than expected to reach commercial viability and scale.

Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, IonQ, and SoundHound AI. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.