Joby Aviation Could Turn a $10,000 Investment Into This in 3 Years

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has had a dismal year on Wall Street.

How bad has it been exactly? Try a roughly 68% drop since the start of the year. Indeed, since this time last October, the stock has lost nearly 75% of its value.

Things don't seem to be getting better for it, either. Already trading near its 52-week low, the stock continues to lose investors' confidence, even as the company gets closer to achieving its biggest milestone yet: carrying its first paying passengers.

The mismatch between Joby stock's performance and the company's progress makes it an interesting investment to consider. Indeed, for investors with a high tolerance for risk, I think this eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) company could be one of the more compelling speculative investments to make. Here's why.

In three years, Joby will likely be taxiing paying passengers

Currently, Joby is in a good position. It has shown the world that its eVTOL aircraft can fly, including demonstrations in major metropolitan areas like New York City, San Francisco, and Dallas-Fort Worth.

It is also working through the fifth and final stage of the FAA type certification, while beginning real-world flights through the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). With the help of this program, Joby could put paying passengers in the air before the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing of eVTOLs has also been picking up. Thanks to help from its partner Toyota (NYSE: TM), Joby is targeting production of four aircraft per month in 2027. Assuming it hits those production targets, Joby could manufacture 48 aircraft annually, leaving it with a sizable fleet by 2029. And if most, or even some, of those aircraft were flying in major metropolitan areas, the visibility could bolster confidence in the company -- a one-two punch for the stock.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

So, what will Joby be worth in three years?

By October 2029, I predict Joby will have returned to the price it started at in 2026 -- about $13 a share. That could turn a $10,000 investment today into about $28,000 in three years.

The main reason behind this prediction is revenue growth. Within three years, Joby is likely going to quadruple its revenue, probably even more. Indeed, many analysts are expecting more than $400 million in annual revenue from Joby in two years, as the chart below demonstrates.

Data by YCharts

What's not shown above is revenue from Joby's planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences. Over the past 12 months, Resonant Sciences has generated more than $100 million in revenue, growing about 40% year over year. If that growth continues, Resonant could become a significant source of revenue for Joby in 2029.

All in all, this year's sell-off of Joby has helped reset expectations around the stock, but I don't think it has made Joby a worse investment. As long as it can put paying passengers in the air as it plans, investors buying at today's price could be handsomely rewarded over the next three years.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.