We Just Had the Busiest Day for Commercial Air Travel Ever. Here's What It Means for Airline Stocks.

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • Three major air carriers all posted strong second-quarter results.

  • Yet a surge in fuel costs remains a risk factor.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Delta Air Lines ›

July 23 was a banner day for commercial air travel. An incredible 153,359 commercial flights worldwide were tracked that day, a new record.

Of course, late July is peak season for global aviation, as that's when the North American, European, and Asian summer holiday schedules most closely align.

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But the trend overall is rising. Last year was a record year for the aviation industry, and 2026 was expected to see worldwide passenger traffic grow 5% over 2025. It looks like it's well on its way to accomplishing that goal.

That's very good news for U.S. carriers like Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ: UAL), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV). And even better news for their shareholders. Delta is up 35% so far this year, and both United and Southwest are up about 19%. So, they've significantly outperformed the broader market, which is up 13% year to date, as measured by the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC).

Despite higher jet fuel prices this year, some of which were passed on to customers via increased fares, demand for air travel has remained robust in 2026. There's also been a decline in capacity due to backlogs at major aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus.

The three airlines posted impressive Q2 results in July

All three carriers reported second-quarter results in July, and by and large, they were impressive.

A jet airliner soaring amid blue sky and clouds.

Image source: Getty Images.

Delta beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and earnings for the second quarter. For full-year 2026, the airline is expected to post income of about $73 billion, 15% above 2025 levels, and earnings of $6.63 per share, which would be 14% higher than last year.

United Airlines also topped analysts' expectations for the second quarter on both earnings and revenue. And it raised its full-year earnings forecast to $9 to $11 per share, up from the previous range of $7 to $11. Analysts expect the company to earn $10.36 per share in 2026, a slight decline from 2025.

United did add that higher fuel prices could add up to $6 billion to its expenses this year.

Finally, Southwest reported earnings of $0.94 a share on revenue of $8.72 billion. Expectations were for earnings of $0.51 a share on revenue of $8.58 billion. The company's CFO said demand for air travel remains very strong, though rising fuel costs have forced it to raise fares.

While those results inspire optimism for these three stocks, investors should keep in mind that jet fuel accounts for between 20% and 30% of an airline's operating expenses, so further spikes in fuel costs due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf could be a major headwind for these carriers.

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Matthew Benjamin has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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