Forget SpaceX's Upcoming Q2 Results. History Says You Should Wait at Least This Long Before Buying SpaceX Stock.

Many investors are keeping a close eye on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) as the company is about to release its second-quarter results on Tuesday, Aug. 4.

SpaceX stock has plunged 31% since its IPO just over one month ago (and is down 51% from its all-time high), and some investors are waiting on the sidelines to buy shares if Q2 results beat Wall Street's consensus estimates.

But history says it's probably better to wait one year or longer before buying SpaceX stock, if at all. Here's why investors shouldn't be so eager to buy the company's shares.

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The post-IPO blues

While excitement around the SpaceX IPO was high -- the company raised nearly $86 billion from the offering -- SpaceX's falling share price has been a disappointment for investors.

But what shareholders may not realize is that SpaceX is following a well-worn path. Data from 1980 to 2024, compiled by Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, shows that companies that IPO with $500 million or more in annual revenue underperform their value-weighted market index by about 4% in their first three years after going public.

And that's not the only historical data pointing to disappointing returns for SpaceX. IPO data compiled by Jefferies over the past 26 years show that companies that go public with market caps above $10 billion typically have gains of only 3.5% in their first year.

Whether SpaceX gains around 4% over the next 12 months or lags the market by 4% three years from now, neither would be an impressive outcome for SpaceX shareholders. And with so much historical data backing the underperformance of IPO stocks, it shouldn't be too surprising to see SpaceX stock tumbling recently.

Progress is being made, but at a high cost

Of course, there are always outliers for any data set, and SpaceX could prove to be a highly successful stock over the next year or more.

The company has made some significant strides with its rocket launch business lately, including the successful 13th test launch of its Starship. SpaceX wants to use the larger rocket to reduce the average launch cost by up to 99%. And the company's rocket business continues to expand, with SpaceX recently inking a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 rocket missions through the end of next year.

But SpaceX's capital expenditures are accelerating as the company invests in its other businesses, namely artificial intelligence (AI). The company's capital expenditures (capex) reached $20.7 billion last year and already hit $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

Investors haven't loved the massive AI spending spree that's currently underway among tech companies. Shares of some AI stocks have slid recently as shareholders question whether the companies will earn a sizable return on their AI investments or not. With SpaceX's AI capex ramping up, it's likely its share price will continue to feel pressure until shareholders see some return on that spending.

When is the right time to buy SpaceX stock?

Based on the historical data, you may want to wait at least until mid-2027 before buying SpaceX, if not longer.

If the Jefferies data holds up for SpaceX, the company's shares will have regained some ground but will be up only about 4% from its opening-day price, putting its shares around $156. And if Ritter's historical IPO data pans out for the company, you might want to wait until 2029 before picking up some SpaceX shares.

SpaceX stock will need to fall much further before its shares look like a good deal. Even with down 40% since its IPO, as of this writing, the stock still has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 76, compared to the tech sector P/S ratio average of about 9.

That's quite a premium to pay for a company. All of which means that even if SpaceX has an impressive second quarter, investors may still want to sit this one out for now.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.