Ripple Price Forecast: XRP builds recovery momentum as whales increase exposure

• XRP rises for a third consecutive day, targeting a short-term technical breakout at $1.10.
• Investors with 10,000-100,000 XRP increase their risk exposure, holding 11.9% of the total supply.
• The retail market shows increasing appetite as perpetual futures Open Interest climbs to 2.27 billion XRP.

Ripple (XRP) rises toward the pivotal $1.10 resistance on Thursday, marking three consecutive days of gains. This neutral-to-slightly bullish outlook follows the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh embraced a hawkish tone in the post-meeting press conference, underlining the central bank’s direction toward “only one target and it is 2%” inflation. Warsh emphasized that the Fed under his leadership “will deliver the 2% target.”

XRP whales keep accumulating despite weak market sentiment

Large volume holders with between 10,000 XRP and 100,000 XRP have continued to increase their risk exposure, as their cumulative holdings climb to 11.9% of the total supply on Thursday, up from 11.75% the day before and 11.64% on July 1.

According to Santiment, investors with between 100,000 XRP and 1 million XRP have also increased their appetite to hold 11.75% of the token’s total supply, up from 11.45% on July 1.

Interestingly, demand for XRP surged amid growing risk-off sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market, primarily attributed to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. If sustained, higher demand would absorb selling pressure, easing resistance and supporting a short to medium-term breakout.

Retail demand shows signs of increasing, with perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaging 2.27 billion XRP on Thursday, up from 2.25 billion XRP the previous day. However, the current level falls below this week’s high of 2.29 billion XRP, undermining risk appetite.

Technical analysis: XRP bulls eye short-term breakout

XRP trades at $1.08, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price remains capped beneath the Bollinger middle layer at roughly $1.10 and all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA at $1.13, together with the upper Bollinger band around $1.14, reinforces a dense resistance zone overhead, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.21 and $1.41 suggest that the broader trend still leans lower.

Momentum is soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 45 on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fractionally negative, hinting at fading bullish attempts.

On the downside, initial support lies at the lower Bollinger band near $1.05, where dip buyers could attempt to stabilize the pair. As long as XRP trades below the $1.10 Bollinger midline boundary and remains under the clustered resistance formed by the 50-day EMA at $1.13 and the upper band at $1.14, rallies are likely to be corrective and vulnerable to renewed selling, with a break under $1.05 opening the door to further weakness toward the prior psychological lows such as the $1.00 level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)