New Zealand Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar gains on renewed Hormuz tensions
- NZD/USD falls as a steady US Dollar draws support from renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this month and in September.
- ING anticipates the RBNZ will implement a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50% this Wednesday.
NZD/USD inches lower for the second successive day, trading around 0.5700 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground, which could be attributed to the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg reported, citing a United States (US) official, that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway late Monday. While two ships sustained significant damage, no casualties were reported. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that a southbound tanker was struck on its port side by an unknown projectile, which ignited a fire on board.
Market participants scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated. Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook.
Despite a sharp collapse in oil prices, ING anticipates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will implement a 25-basis-point "insurance" rate hike to 2.50% on Wednesday. However, the firm cautions that the tightening could be a one-off move, offering little sustained upward momentum for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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