Trump Tariffs send copper costs flying sky high

Copper in the U.S. is now way pricier than anywhere else on Earth, and it’s all thanks to President Trump, the gift that keeps on giving.

He announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports, and by the end of Tuesday, prices in America jumped 13%, closing at $5.69 per pound. That’s the highest one-day rise in more than three decades. Meanwhile, copper prices in London barely moved, going up just 0.3%.

Before the tariff, U.S. copper was already expensive. Now, it’s hitting levels that could drag down consumer spending, kill off business margins, and screw up national infrastructure projects.

Almost half of all copper in the U.S. is imported, and it’s a key metal in everything from air conditioners, electric cars, fridges, and smartphones, to housing and AI infrastructure. Trump says the goal is to force local production to rise, but industry experts told CNBC that’s not going to happen anytime soon.

There’s no quick fix. It’ll take years to ramp up mining inside the country and maybe even decades before the U.S. can meet its own demand, and that’s assuming investors are willing to throw down billions right now.

Tariffs send copper costs flying sky high

Since February, traders had been waiting for Trump to announce tariffs. They weren’t sure what the number would be or when it would start, but they knew it was coming. Copper shipments from Europe and Asia have already been rerouted into the U.S. in anticipation.

But now that the rate is set at 50%, traders say there’s still confusion around the exact timeline and possible carve-outs. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s commerce secretary, told CNBC the new rate would likely take effect around “the end of July, maybe August 1.”

That hasn’t stopped the price gap between U.S. and global copper from blowing up. For comparison, the London Metal Exchange (LME) is the world’s benchmark, and normally, the price difference between it and the U.S. Comex market is near zero.

Last year, the premium was about $150 per ton. But since February, the difference has bounced between $500 and $1,500. On Tuesday, it shot up to $2,600 per ton, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in London.

Benchmark’s analysts say if the tariff kicks in on August 1, copper in the U.S. could hit $15,000 per metric ton, while the rest of the world keeps paying around $10,000. That’s a massive price wall.

Daan de Jonge, who leads Benchmark’s copper pricing research, said this will hit everyone. “If you’re buying a new fridge, air conditioner, car; everything is going to get more expensive,” Daan told CNBC. He added that companies will likely pass those costs to consumers. It could also mean Americans start buying cheaper goods made abroad, even if that means dodging local producers.

Daan also pointed out that public investments will suffer too. Copper is essential for national infrastructure. Now with higher prices, a weaker dollar, and pricier debt, government projects will take a hit. “I’d expect that to start showing employment effects,” he said.

One response could be to start swapping copper for aluminum in certain projects. That might work in the short term, but aluminum is heavier and wears down faster, not a real long-term solution. Daan warned that this all “enters the risk range of demand destruction.”

Domestic supply not ready to fill the gap

Trump’s big pitch is that high tariffs will make companies start mining copper in the U.S., but there’s a massive reality check waiting. Getting new copper mines up and running isn’t fast or cheap.

Peter Chase, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told CNBC that the U.S. won’t be self-reliant overnight. “The price of copper with a 50% tariff is not going to mean copper production in the U.S. goes through the roof tomorrow,” Peter said.

Right now, the U.S. gets most of its imported copper from Chile, Canada, Mexico, and Peru. Replacing those sources with domestic production would require changes in permits, billions in new investment, and years of development, and that’s only if copper prices stay high long enough to make it worthwhile.

Peter also warned that the shock could mess with the country’s AI infrastructure buildout, which depends heavily on copper wiring and energy systems.

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