Ethereum to rise within key range, James Seyffart doesn't expect ETH ETF approval in 2024
- Ethereum would likely sustain trading inside key range despite recent sharp movements outside it.
- Hong Kong spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a second day of very low trading volume on Thursday.
- Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart doesn't see spot Ethereum ETFs happening until 2025.
Ethereum (ETH) is beginning to show signs of recovery on Thursday despite a second consecutive day of poor performance in Hong Kong's spot Ethereum ETFs. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has also shared that a spot Ethereum ETF may not happen in the US in 2024.
Read more: Ethereum attempts comeback after Fed decision not to tamper with rates
Daily digest market movers: Spot Ethereum ETFs unlikely in 2024
Ethereum ETFs are trending again following recent developments. Here are the latest market movers for the top altcoin:
- Hong Kong's spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded another day of underwhelming performance, as their total trading volume was approximately $8.75 million. The three Ethereum ETFs managed a trading volume of about $600,000.
The low volume may be attributed to the recent crypto market dip, as investors are exercising caution. This aligns with the current ratio of the Ethereum Fear and Greed Index, which has declined significantly, dropping to 40 at the time of writing. While that signifies a neutral state, a further drop could quickly turn on the fear alert, signifying a potential bearish trend.
- In an interview with Altcoin Daily, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart shared that the odds of an Ethereum ETF happening in 2024 is low, adding that an approval in 2025 looks more likely. He pointed out that a SEC approval of spot ETH ETFs in May is highly unlikely, considering there have been no positive signs.
"Our official stat is 25%. We're gonna have to lower that in the future as we are not seeing any movements," he said. The SEC must decide on Van Ecks' spot Ethereum ETF application on May 23.
Also read: Ethereum dips below key level as Hong Kong ETFs underperform
- However, he doesn't expect the SEC to deny ETH ETFs by going nuclear and calling them security, as it would invite a plethora of lawsuits. Instead, he expects the regulator to come up with a word salad—like leaning on weak correlations—as a reason for denial. Seyffart also noted that the outcome of the US presidential election may play a role in the final decision on ETH ETFs.
ETH technical analysis: Ethereum to rise within key range
After the recent downturn that saw its price reaching $2,816 on Wednesday, Ethereum is looking likely to recover earlier losses as it's currently trading close to $3,000. While many have turned bearish following recent price movements, ETH may not sustain any decline outside the $2,852 to $3,300 range for too long.
Read more: Ethereum erases weekend gains as yearlong SEC investigation comes to light
ETH/USDT 1-hour chart
We can also see this from the decline in Ethereum long liquidations, which sat around $34 million in the past 24 hours. Ethereum open interest (OI) has also risen slightly by 2% on Thursday, indicating traders are beginning to open positions again.
As a result, ETH's potential to decline further is unlikely. If ETH breaks past $3,029, it may rise further to cover the liquidity void of April 30.
This thesis would be invalidated if an upcoming macro event disrupts market dynamics.
Ethereum FAQs
Ethereum is a decentralized open-source blockchain with smart contracts functionality. Serving as the basal network for the Ether (ETH) cryptocurrency, it is the second largest crypto and largest altcoin by market capitalization. The Ethereum network is tailored for scalability, programmability, security, and decentralization, attributes that make it popular among developers.
Ethereum uses decentralized blockchain technology, where developers can build and deploy applications that are independent of the central authority. To make this easier, the network has a programming language in place, which helps users create self-executing smart contracts. A smart contract is basically a code that can be verified and allows inter-user transactions.
Staking is a process where investors grow their portfolios by locking their assets for a specified duration instead of selling them. It is used by most blockchains, especially the ones that employ Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism, with users earning rewards as an incentive for committing their tokens. For most long-term cryptocurrency holders, staking is a strategy to make passive income from your assets, putting them to work in exchange for reward generation.
Ethereum transitioned from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism in an event christened “The Merge.” The transformation came as the network wanted to achieve more security, cut down on energy consumption by 99.95%, and execute new scaling solutions with a possible threshold of 100,000 transactions per second. With PoS, there are less entry barriers for miners considering the reduced energy demands.
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