The Week Ahead: Blockbuster Nvidia Q3 Earnings Arrive as US October Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes and Walmart Earnings Follow

TradingKey - During the week of November 16–20 Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market will focus on U.S. retail sales data for October and the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes to gauge consumer trends and the direction of future monetary policy.

On the earnings front, Nvidia (NVDA), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and Walmart (WMT) will report their earnings in succession.

Nvidia's earnings will provide a key reference for AI chip demand and cloud providers' capital expenditures, while the retailers' results will help assess the state of U.S. consumer spending.

Major Events Preview

Nvidia Earnings: Jensen Huang's Departure, Blackwell Demand, and Gross Margin in Focus

Nvidia is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results after the market close on Tuesday, November 17, and will host an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. The company expects to release CFO written commentary at approximately 4:20 p.m.

This earnings report faces new market variables. On November 12, Nvidia announced that co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO, and director, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO, and the board has initiated a search process for a new CEO, considering both internal and external candidates.

The leadership change comes as the company faces an independent investigation, with the market focusing on whether the management shakeup will affect customer partnerships, product roadmaps, and the execution of its long-term strategy.

In terms of guidance, Nvidia expects third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to be approximately $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, with both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins projected at 74%, plus or minus 0.5 percentage points. This guidance excludes data center compute revenue from the Chinese market. Meanwhile, market analysts expect third-quarter revenue of around $109 billion and EPS of approximately $2.47.

Investors will focus primarily on Blackwell shipments, Data Center revenue, progress on next-generation Rubin products, and fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin guidance.

If the results and forward guidance beat expectations, they could bolster market confidence in AI chip demand; conversely, if growth or delivery progress falls short of expectations, compounded by the uncertainty of leadership changes, Nvidia and AI infrastructure-related stocks could face heightened volatility.

U.S. Retail Sales and Walmart Earnings: Consumer Trends in Focus

The U.S. will release October retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday (November 17). Reflecting sales in the retail and food services sectors, this data is an important gauge of U.S. consumer demand.

Walmart will report its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Thursday (November 19), with earnings materials expected to be released at 7:00 a.m., followed by an earnings conference call at 8:00 a.m.

The company previously guided for third-quarter net sales growth of 3% to 3.75% on a constant-currency basis, adjusted operating income growth of 2% to 4%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.62 to $0.64.

The market will focus closely on U.S. comparable sales, customer traffic, e-commerce, advertising, and membership businesses, as well as demand for food and daily essentials. Walmart's updated outlook for the holiday shopping season and full-year performance will also reflect U.S. consumers' willingness to spend.

FOMC Minutes: Officials' Divergence on Further Rate Hikes in Focus

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October 27–28 meeting at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday (November 18). At that meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00%, though two members favored a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Because the meeting did not include the release of the Summary of Economic Projections or a rate dot plot, the minutes will provide further insight into officials' policy assessments. The market will focus closely on officials' evaluations of inflation, employment, and consumption, as well as their stance on further rate hikes.

Notably, the minutes reflect discussions from the October meeting and do not represent officials' current positions. Investors also need to consider post-meeting remarks by officials and the latest economic data to assess the Fed's future interest rate path.

Core Schedule for the Week

Monday (November 16)

Key Events: November Empire State Manufacturing Index, XPeng Earnings, Baidu Earnings

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release the November Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 a.m. that day, with markets watching indicators such as new orders, employment, and input prices to gauge manufacturing activity.

On the earnings front, XPeng (XPEV), Baidu (BIDU), and KE Holdings (BEKE) will all report their third-quarter results before the U.S. market opens.

XPeng's conference call is scheduled for 7:00 a.m., with a focus on vehicle deliveries, gross margin, and forward delivery guidance. Baidu's conference call is scheduled for 7:30 a.m., with markets focusing on online marketing, AI Cloud business, and the commercialization progress of its Ernie large language model.

Tuesday (November 17)

Key Events: October Retail Sales Data, Nvidia Earnings, Disney Earnings

The U.S. will release October retail sales data and import and export price indexes at 8:30 a.m. that day, followed by October industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m., and September business inventories at 10:00 a.m.

On the earnings front, Home Depot will report third-quarter results before the market open and hold a conference call at 9:00 a.m. Investors will focus on same-store sales, Pro customer demand, building material prices, and full-year guidance to assess the impact of cooling housing transactions on home improvement demand.

Disney (DIS) will also report fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results before the market open. Meanwhile, Nvidia will release its third-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results after the market close.

Wednesday (November 18)

Key Events: October FOMC Meeting Minutes, Target Earnings, Palo Alto Networks Earnings

The U.S. will release October housing starts and building permits data at 8:30 a.m. that day, reflecting residential construction activity and future supply pipeline. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m., with the market focusing on officials' discussions regarding inflation and the path of future interest rate policy.

On the earnings front, Target, Lowe's, and TJX Companies (TJX) will report results before the market open, with markets focusing on same-store sales, consumer demand, and inventory levels.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the market close, with a focus on its next-generation security business, remaining performance obligations, and full-year guidance.

Thursday (November 19)

Key Events: Walmart Earnings, Alibaba Earnings

Walmart will report third-quarter fiscal 2027 results at 8:00 a.m. that day. Markets will focus on U.S. same-store sales, e-commerce, advertising, and membership business performance, as well as guidance for the holiday shopping season.

Alibaba (BABA) will report its results for the quarter ended September 30 before the U.S. market opens and hold a conference call at 7:00 a.m. Key focus areas include its China commerce, Cloud Intelligence, AI business, and international digital commerce performance.

The U.S. Census Bureau will release the third-quarter Quarterly Services Report and retail e-commerce sales data at 10:00 a.m., reflecting changes in service sector revenue and online consumer spending.

Friday (November 20)

Key Events: October State Employment and Unemployment Data, BJ's Wholesale Earnings

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October state employment and unemployment data at 10:00 a.m. that day, along with 2025 total factor productivity data for major industries, reflecting trends in state labor markets and industry productivity.

At the same time, the University of Michigan will release the final reading of its November Consumer Sentiment Index, with markets focusing on consumers' views on the economic outlook as well as short- and long-term inflation expectations.

On the earnings front, BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the market open and hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Key focus will be on same-store sales, membership fee income, gross margin, and full-year guidance.