SpaceX’s Starship Just Did Something for Only the 2nd Time. Saturday Could Be Even Bigger.
Key Points
SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 reached orbit and began deploying 26 Starlink satellites, but the Super Heavy booster was diverted to a splashdown instead of being caught.
Space accounted for just $1.8 billion of SpaceX's $14.6 billion in third-quarter revenue, so Starship isn't really about the top line for the moment.
A successful catch of the upper stage would be a major step toward the fully reusable rocket that is a major part of SpaceX's growth thesis, but the hard part is getting back to Earth in one piece, over and over.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s (NASDAQ:SPCX) Starship Flight 15 lifted off from Starbase, Texas, on Friday, Nov. 13, at 5:47 p.m. ET in the company's attempt to pull off a "double-catch" of both stages of its Starship rocket for the first time.
But after a clean separation in the upper atmosphere, the lower half -- a Super Heavy booster -- was diverted off the coast, splashing down in the Gulf of Mexico, after which it burst into flames. The company has not shared details of the issue encountered.
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While that kept the mission from achieving complete success, Starship — the upper stage — successfully reached orbit at 6:13 p.m. ET. That's only the second time the company's pulled that off, with SpaceX's Dan Huot calling it "a really great moment" on Flight 15's livestream.
The payload of 26 of Starlink's latest satellites is currently being deployed.
If the rest of the mission goes according to plan, Starship will reenter the atmosphere tomorrow with a catch attempt scheduled for 4:17 p.m. ET. SpaceX said before launch that it would attempt a catch only if all systems needed to guide it through the atmosphere and into the tower successfully were healthy. So, successfully reaching orbit doesn't guarantee that the catch will go ahead.
Why a Starship catch matters for SpaceX stock
Even without a first catch, a successful second catch of Starship would be huge for the company, representing a major step toward making SpaceX's goal of a fully and rapidly reusable, heavy lift rocket a reality. The program is a major part of SpaceX's growth thesis.
In the third quarter, SpaceX brought in $14.6 billion in revenue, and the Space segment accounted for just $1.8 billion of that. Starship isn't really about the company's top line -- for the moment, that is.
What Starship could mean for SpaceX's launch business?
In the near term, an operational Starship program's main job would be to get as many Starlink satellites into orbit as quickly and cheaply as possible. Long term, however, once the program scales and the bulk of the Starlink satellite network has been filled out, Starship would allow the company to greatly expand its launch service business, and the top-line will undoubtedly grow significantly.
The company's current workhorse, Falcon 9, reuses its booster but throws away its upper stage on every flight. The ability to reuse such a large rocket would drive down the cost of getting payloads of all sizes into space, helping it win larger contracts from enterprise and government customers alike.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX is aiming for full Starship capability around the end of 2027, but the program has seen significant setbacks and delays in its development. A successful catch tomorrow would go a long way in reassuring investors worried about further delays.
Starship Flight 15 shows why reusability is the hard part
Getting Starship into orbit with a full load of Starlink satellites is a good day for SpaceX, but having the booster diverted into the water and burst into flames is a reminder that the hard part of this program -- the real essence of what makes it special -- is not getting to space, but getting back to Earth in one piece, over and over. That is what will change the economics of space.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Space Exploration Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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