Afya (AFYA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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DATE

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• Chief Executive Officer - Virgilio Deloy Gibbon
• Chief Financial Officer - Luis Andre Blanco

TAKEAWAYS

• Revenue (Q3) -- BRL 985 million, representing a 6% increase due to growth in the Undergraduate segment.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q3) -- BRL 434 million, increasing 9% compared to the prior year.
• Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Q3) -- 44%, expanding 100 basis points reflecting higher gross margins in Undergraduate programs.
• Net Income (9M) -- BRL 634 million, an increase of 7% for the first 9 months of 2026.
• Basic EPS (9M) -- BRL 6.98, representing 9% growth driven by profitability and the impact of the share repurchase program.
• Operating Medical Seats -- 3,785 seats, an increase of 5% following organic expansions and seat authorizations.
• Undergraduate Medical Students -- 26,000 students, representing 3% growth compared to the same period of the prior year.
• Net Average Ticket (Medical) -- BRL 9,466, increasing 4% through annual tuition adjustments.
• Continuing Education Revenue (9M) -- BRL 209 million, representing 1% growth as the segment transitions toward short-duration courses.
• Medical Practice Solutions Revenue (9M) -- BRL 128 million, remaining broadly in line with performance from the prior year.
• Clinical Management Active Payers -- 52,000 users, representing 20% growth driven by increased penetration of Afya iClinic.
• Total Ecosystem Users -- 300,000 active users, reflecting penetration among physicians and medical students in Brazil.
• Health Science Student Base -- 18% growth in average students, driven by the diversification of the health-related undergraduate portfolio.
• Shareholder Returns (9M) -- BRL 459 million returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
• Gross Debt -- BRL 2.5 billion as of Sept. 30, 2026, compared to BRL 2.3 billion in the prior year.
• Net Debt -- BRL 1.2 billion, reflecting a reduction of BRL 170 million during the first 9 months of 2026.
• Leverage Ratio -- 0.7x net debt to adjusted EBITDA based on the midpoint of 2026 guidance.
• Operating Cash Conversion -- 99.5%, maintaining strong efficiency in translating earnings to cash flow.
• Free Cash Flow to Equity (9M) -- BRL 629 million, including BRL 206 million generated during the third quarter.
• 2026 CapEx Guidance -- BRL 340 million to BRL 380 million, with management expecting to achieve this range by year-end.
• 2027 Tuition Increase -- 5.7% scheduled increase for gross tuition in the upcoming academic year.

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RISKS

• Blanco stated that "gross margins compression in the Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions segments, associated with the ongoing investment cycle in both segments, and higher sales and marketing expenses," impacted quarterly profitability results.
• Blanco warned that trade receivables were impacted by a 64% increase in FIES funding balances since Dec. 2025, which totaled approximately BRL 90 million and pushed working capital higher.
• Management reported that monthly active users in the Medical Practice Solutions segment reached 219,000 during the period, representing a 4% decline compared to the prior year.
• Gibbon indicated that management is seeing physicians become "more critical in terms of conversion" and more price-sensitive when enrolling in long-duration programs.

SUMMARY

Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA) entered into a definitive merger agreement with Yduqs Participaçoes S.A. on Sept. 23, 2026, establishing a transaction where Afya shareholders will hold 69.0% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis. Management reported that the business combination remains subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, with a contractual deadline for completion set for March 31, 2028. The company achieved an AA MSCI ESG rating, the highest in the Latin American education sector, while maintaining 100% occupancy across its medical undergraduate programs. Financial results for the period were impacted by the implementation of Pillar 2 global minimum tax rules in Brazil, leading to the company's first tax disbursement under this framework in July 2026.

• CEO Gibbon stated, "This result shows the strength of our business model and our ecosystem, while creating the foundations we need to keep growing and unlock the next chapter in the company's history."
• Management reported that internal assessments of the new ENAMED medical examination showed student proficiency rates approximately 18 percentage points above the simple average of previous exams.
• The company secured authorization for 17 additional medical seats at Afya Cruzeiro do Sul on Sept. 18, 2026, supporting management's strategy for predictable organic expansion.
• CFO Blanco noted that the average debt duration increased from 1.9 years to 3.7 years, successfully extending the company's maturity profile.
• The Continuing Education segment is experiencing a mix shift as students increasingly favor short-duration technical programs over traditional long-duration graduate programs.
• Management confirmed that the 2026 capital expenditure target of BRL 340 million to BRL 380 million remains realistic despite current year-to-date spending levels being lower than anticipated.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• B2P: Business to Physician; a model focusing on products and services sold directly to medical professionals.
• CDI: Certificado de Depósito Interfinanceiro; a benchmark interest rate for the Brazilian interbank market.
• ENAMED: Exame Nacional de Desempenho dos Estudantes de Medicina; a national examination used to assess medical student performance in Brazil.
• FIES: Fundo de Financiamento Estudantil; a Brazilian government-funded program providing financing for students in private higher education.
• MAU: Monthly Active Users; a metric representing the number of unique users who interact with a platform within a 30-day period.
• Pillar 2: Global minimum tax rules established by the OECD to ensure large multinational enterprises pay a minimum level of tax on income in each jurisdiction.
• PROUNI: Programa Universidade para Todos; a Brazilian federal program that provides scholarships to students in private higher education institutions in exchange for tax exemptions.
• SAEME: Sistema de Acreditação de Escolas Médicas; the primary accreditation system for medical schools in Brazil.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Renata Couto: Thank you for joining us for Afya's Conference Call. I'm here today with Afya's CEO, Virgilio Gibbon; and our CFO, Luis Andre Blanco. During today's presentation, our executives will make forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be related to future events, future financial or operating performance, known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause Afya's actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements related to the business and financial performance, expectations and guidance for future periods or expectations regarding the company's strategic product initiatives and its related benefits.

These risks include those more fully described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on the information available to us as the date hereof. You should not rely on them as predictions of future events, and we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required by law. In addition, management may reference non-IFRS measures on this call. These measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the results prepared in accordance with IFRS. This presentation reconciles these non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures. Now let me turn the call over to Virgilio Gibbon, Afya's EO.

Virgilio Deloy Gibbon: Thank you, Renata, and everyone for joining us today for our third quarter nine months conference call for 2026 results. This quarter reflects more than financial performance. It demonstrates how our strategy continues to position Afya for sustainable growth, transforming medical education across Brazil. As we continue to train physicians with recognized quality and important accreditations and recognitions, such as SAEME, DOCEEME, and MSCI rating, while maintaining 100% occupancy across all of our medical programs in Brazil. Today, I will cover key strategic developments and operational highlights that drove these results. Then Luis Blanco will provide a detailed review of our operational and financial performance. Let's begin with our main highlights and strategic priorities for the quarter.

In the third quarter, revenue increased 6% year-over-year to BRL 985 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 9% to BRL 434 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 44%, an expansion of 100 basis points compared to the same period of the prior year. For the first 9 months of 2026, revenue grew almost 7% year-over-year, reaching BRL 2,970 million, followed by an adjusted EBITDA growth of almost 5%, reaching BRL 1.3 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 45.5%. Net income reached BRL 634 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, and basic EPS climbed to BRL 6.98, representing a 9% increase, reflecting the impact of the company's share repurchase program.

We also reported a strong operational cash conversion of 99.5%, with BRL 629 million of free cash flow to equity in the 9 months of 2026, of which BRL 206 million were generated in third quarter 2026. These results reflect the strength of our cash generation, disciplined execution and our continued commitment to creating long-term shareholder value. Moving on to our operational updates. In this quarter, we maintained our leadership position in medical education, supported by 3,785 operating medical seats, reflect an increase of over 5% year-over-year. Furthermore, the number of undergrad medical students reached more than 26,000 students, representing 3% growth compared to the same period of the prior year.

Additionally, we increased the net average tickets of medical school by 4% year-over-year, reaching BRL 9,466. In Continuing Education, revenue increased 1% over last year, reaching BRL 209 million, and in Medical Practice Solutions, revenue was in line with the same period of the prior year, reaching over BRL 128 million. This lower growth is part of the investment strategy we previously announced, aimed to increasing the user base in these 2 segments. In this quarter, we are already seeing 10% growth in Continuing Education students compared to the same quarter of the prior year. In Medical Practice Solutions, we see a 3% growth in both paying users and MAU compared to the previous quarter.

Our ecosystem now counts 300,000 users, reflecting continuing meaningful penetration among physicians and medical students across the country. Now, moving to Slide #4, we will discuss the highlights of our 3 business segments and our corporate achievements. Starting with the Undergrad segment in medicine course, we saw medical school net average tickets rising by 4% year-over-year. We also continue to deliver strong student base growth momentum in health science course. Compared to the previous year, average health science students increased by 18%, reflecting the diversification of our health-related undergrad portfolio. In addition, we secured authorization of 17 medical additional seats in Afya Cruzeiro do Sul on September 18.

This approval reinforced our organic growth runway and supports our ability to expand with predictability. The Continuing Education segment was once again marked by strong growth in our total student base, which expanded 10% in the 9 months of 2026. B2P revenue for the segment grew 4% compared to the same period last year. The Medical Practice Solutions segment, delivered 20% increase in clinical management active payers in 9 months. In addition, B2B revenue grew 4% year-over-year. Lastly, shareholder returns remained a key priority. Our disciplined capital allocation framework continues to create sustainable value for shareholders.

At the corporate level, supported by strong cash generation, we returned BRL 459 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the 9 months of 2026. To conclude corporate context, we are glad to announce that we achieved an AA MSCI ESG rating, becoming the highest-rated company in the education sector in Latin America, while also has achieved an ESG leader status within the diversified consumer servicing industry. This result shows the strength of our business model and our ecosystem, while creating the foundations we need to keep growing and unlock the next chapter in the company's history. I will now turn the call over to Luis Blanco, Afya's CFO, to provide further insight into the financial operation metrics.

Thank you.

Luis Andre Blanco: Thank you, Virgilio, and good evening, everyone. Starting with the next slide for discussions of key operational metrics by business unit. Starting with the undergraduate programs, our medical student base grew by 3% compared to the first 9 months of 2025, reaching over 26,000 students, while operating medical school seats increased 5% year-over-year to 3,785. Our medical school net average ticket increased by 4%, reaching BRL 9,466 in the 9 months of 2026. In addition to our health science and other undergraduate programs, revenue for the Undergraduate segments grew by over 7%, totaling BRL 2,642 million. Notably, 85% of this revenue comes from the medical program and 93% from health-related courses, reinforcing our strategic focus and leadership in the sector.

On the next page, I will present our Continuing Education metrics. We approach Continuing Education through 3 main journeys. Starting with the residency journey, which encompasses products focused on the residency preparations. The student base dropped 4% year-over-year to 9,595 students at the end of the period, but increased 4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the seasonality of this product. Undergraduate journey, which focus on specialization test preparations and graduate medical education, total students increased 2% to 9,386, supported by continued demand for advanced medical training programs. Lastly, other B2P and B2B offerings continued to grow, with the total students up 17% year-over-year to 36,345.

Continuing Education revenue increased to BRL 209 million in the 9-month period of 2026 compared to BRL 208 million in the same period of 2025, representing a growth of 1%. This performance was primarily driven by B2P revenue, which increased over 4% year-over-year to BRL 195 million, representing 93% of the Continuing Education revenue. Meanwhile, B2B revenue totaled BRL 14 million. Moving to the next slide, I will discuss the Medical Practice Solutions operational metrics. Total active payers increased by 2% year-over-year to approximately 206,000, with clinical management active payers growing 20% to 52,000, reflecting continued penetrations of Afya iClinic. Monthly active users reached 219,000 during the period, down 4% year-over-year.

Medical Practice Solutions revenue reached BRL 128 million in the 9 months of 2026, broadly in line with the same period of the prior year. On the next slide, we present Afya ecosystem. We are proud of the meaningful impact Afya continues to make across Brazil healthcare ecosystem. By the end of the third quarter of 2026, over 300,000 users were actively engaging with our service and products, reflecting our solid relevance and reach in medical educational and medical solutions. Moving forward, I want to discuss our financial overview for the third quarter and the 9 months of 2026.

I am pleased to present another solid set of results for Afya, reflecting the resilience of our business model and our continued focus on sustainable growth and operational efficiency. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 reached BRL 985 million, a 6% increase from the same period from the prior year. For the 9 months of 2026, revenue totaled BRL 2,970 million, up 7% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA reached BRL 434 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 9% from the prior year. For the 9-month period, adjusted EBITDA totaled BRL 1,352 million, up 5% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 44% in the quarter and 45.5% in the 9-month period.

The margin expansions in the quarter was primarily driven by higher gross margins in the Undergraduate segments and partially offset by gross margins compression in the Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions segments, associated with the ongoing investment cycle in both segments, and higher sales and marketing expenses. On the next page, cash flow from operating activities reached BRL 1,333 million in the 9-month period of 2026 compared to BRL 1,291 million in the same period of the prior year, representing a growth of 3%. Cash conversion remained strong at 99.5%, broadly in line with the prior year. Net income for the third quarter of 2026 totaled BRL 171 million, up 7% from the same period of the prior year.

For the 9 months of 2026, net income reached BRL 634 million, up 7% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased BRL 1.88 in the third quarter of 2026, up 10% from the BRL 1.71 in the prior year period, higher than the net income increase, reflecting the executions of our buyback program. For the 9-month period, earnings per share reached BRL 6.98, up 9% from the BRL 6.40 in the 9-month period of 2025. Overall, these results reflect Afya's abilities to continue generating solid cash flow while delivering consistent growth in profitability and shareholder returns. And now, moving to my last 2 slides, I will cover our gross debt composition and our cost of debt and our net debt reconciliation.

These slides detail the compositions of our gross debt position as of September 2026, covering its maturity profile and average cost of debt. Afya continues to maintain a solid capital structure and a conservative leverage profile. As of 30 September of 2026, gross debt totaled BRL 2.5 billion compared to the BRL 2.3 billion as of September 2025. At the same time, the average debt durations increased from 1.9 years to 3.7 years, extending our maturity profile in the period. The average cost of debt in 2026 is 15.2% per year, representing approximately 106% of the CDI for the period. On the next page, we can look closely at the net debt variation.

Our net debt positions continue to benefit from a solid cash flow from operating activities, which totaled BRL 1,333 million during the period, and largely offsets tax, investments, leases and interest expenses. As of September 2026, our net debt totaled BRL 1.2 billion. Our free cash flow to equity reached BRL 629 million in the first 9 months of 2026, including BRL 206 million generated in the third quarter. It's worth mentioning that Afya disbursed Pillar 2 taxations for the first time at the end of July 2026. This strong cash flow generation allowed us to return BRL 459 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase during the 9-month period, while reducing our net debt by BRL 170 million.

Afya's net debt, excluding IFRS 16, divided by the midpoint of the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, is 0.7x. This concluded our prepared remarks. The 9-month periods of 2026 reinforce what we have consistently demonstrated over time; a resilient business, a focused team and a strategy that is working. We remain deeply committed to advancing the physician journey through our integrated ecosystem and confident in our ability to deliver sustainable long-term value for our shareholders, students and healthcare professionals across Brazil. The strengths of our ecosystems and the resilience of our business model enable us to continue growth and reinforce our ability to achieve our objectives. I will now open the conference for the Q&A session. Thank you.

Renata Couto: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from [ Livia ] from JPMorgan.

Unknown Analyst: I want to have 2 questions here. The first one is on the medical segment. Could you give us an update on the competitive environment, especially for the first half of next year intake? I know it's a little bit early at this point, but if you could give us some color, would be great. And if you could also comment a little bit on how you see the dynamics for tickets next year. And the second one, we would like to better understand the elements behind the expansion of gross margin in the Undergrad segment.

Virgilio Deloy Gibbon: Livia, it's Virgilio. Thanks for your question. So as you said, it's very early in the process to give a call or how will be the intake for 2027 first semester. Regarding ticket, we passed 5.7% over our gross tuition to next year. So we are in very beginning, so kind of optimistic based on what we did on the second semester of 2026. So this is as regard the competition and the trend for 2027. About the gross margin on undergrad, we saw in this quarter very good results coming from undergrad. We are 100 bps over the same quarter last year, and basically comes also from undergrad. The gross margin expanded.

Most of them are very good results also on medical, but also on health programs that we continue to have very high growth on other health programs on our campuses, diluting fixed costs and also improving the number of students per class, also combining more health-related disciplines between programs, what help us to minimize the faculty cost. So I think this is the overall reason coming from a better gross margin on this third quarter.

Renata Couto: Next question comes from Flavio from Bank of America.

Flavio Yoshida: I have 2 on my side. The first one is on ENAMED. So I was wondering if you have already had access to any preliminary results or insights from this year's exam. And based on what you have seen so far, if you guys anticipate having to increase investments or costs to better prepare your students for the ENAMED exams in the upcoming years. And my second question is on Continuing Education. We have been informing that the student base growth is not translating into a proportional revenue growth, right? So I think you guys already mentioned that there is a mix shift towards short duration and lower ticket courses.

So my question here is on when should we expect the monetization of this growing student base evolve or when should we expect revenues per student to stabilize? And also, if you still want to continue education, if you could explain what's going on, on the B2B revenues that has been increasing at a very -- at 30% year-over-year?

Virgilio Deloy Gibbon: Flavio, actually, it's 4 questions here that at least that I took the note here. First is the preliminary ENAMED results. So we don't have any clue from the Ministry of Education yet. Everything that we have is based on our internal assessment because we got back the answers from our students and we make the correction and all the estimative, how is the average of our student compare to the previous ENAMED exam, and we were almost 20 percentage points above. So it was a very good result. Actually, it was 18 percentage points on a simple average.

Also, doing the normalization, considering our distribution, our student base, we are also having a much better proficiency rates on every campuses. But it's still a preliminary. We are not comparing our student to the entire student base in Brazil. We cannot take this as a consideration. Second, regarding the costs. As you saw, we increased our margins and improved our gross margins, so we didn't have any additional cost from ENAMED. We are doing 100% internally. We have all the features now that we have the information. We run at least 11 mocks for every campuses.

And we did a lot of homework for this new step of this new ENAMED, but the result is at least expected to be released in December. Your third question is about the Continuing Education that we are seeing and growth on student, but revenue, it's not coming at the same proportion. Yes, we are growing faster the student base. We are seeing a more critical in terms of conversion, price-sensitive physician to enroll in a long duration programs. So the mix effect here is that we have much more student applying for short duration programs, more related to procedure, new technicals for some specialties.

And that -- the consequence direction of that is that the revenue does not come because the tuition is much lower. So that's the reason on Continuing Education. When we will see a same-store sales in some, maybe in 2020 -- not in 2026, but in 2028, we are aiming to go north in one single digit. It's what we are aiming on Continuing Education 2027. On the B2B revenues, we have like a mix effect here. We are seeing a strong growth on the traditional pharma-related contract, but a reduction on the other side, on the other types of B2B contracts related also for providers and other type of institution.

So we are seeing that we are a bit more flat this year in 2026, but the sales volume is getting a little bit higher, so expecting better results for 2028. Fourth quarter will be actually the same trend that we are seeing for the entire year, okay? So I think I captured all the 4 question, not 2.

Denis Bianco: Just if I may add something here, Virgilio, to Flavio, in the B2B side from EduCon, where we see the decrease year-over-year, it's more related to the test prep market that has changed a lot during the year, Flavio, because of the ENAMED. So this dynamic changed a lot of these years, and we think that's opportunity for the next years to recover it with this market, with this new ENAMED phase that we're going to have, the 3 phases test, one for the second year, the fourth year and the last test in the sixth year. So I think it's opportunity to recover these B2B signs from the EduCon.

Renata Couto: Yes. And regarding the B2B of SPM, is the one that we are seeing the sales increasing. Next question comes from Felipe Amancio from Itau BBA.

Felipe Amancio: Two questions from my side. The first one is on profitability. We noticed a margin increase in the quarter, mostly driven by the undergraduates. You already commented about this in your last answer, but if you could comment a bit better, if this changes your expectations for profitability gains for next year? And also what are the main levers that you envision in this segment? And my second question is also on profitability. We notice here a greater net revenue decrease on Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions. I would like to understand how much of this profitability increase that we observed this quarter could be explained by this revenue mix?

Luis Andre Blanco: Felipe, it's Blanco here. I will take the questions. The first regarding the profitability for these years, we are -- we will deliver the guidance that we provided to the market in the beginning of the year. So we had a decrease in the first 2 quarters. We have these 100 bps above this third quarter, but all of it, we are going to perform the year delivering the guidance that we provided at the beginning of the year. Regarding the margins from 2027 ahead, we will deliver the guidance for 2027 when we release the 2026 results in March.

Regarding the mix of segments affecting the profitability in general, what we have is that undergrads represents roughly 86% of our net revenue. So if we get more profitability coming from the segments, it will cover the participation from EduCon and SPM that we have, the decrease in the period. That's why these major participations from the undergrad more than covers the margins that were down in EduCon and SPM.

Renata Couto: The next question comes from Lucas Nagano from Morgan Stanley.

Lucas Nagano: We have 2 questions. The first is related to working capital. There is an upward trend in receivable days. Is this explained by higher share of FIES and private funding? And if yes, should we expect this trend to continue into next year? And the second is related to CapEx. There is a reasonable gap between year-to-date CapEx and the lower end of the guidance. The question is if this guidance is realistic, or if not, is it a matter of postponing investments or should investments be indeed lower?

Luis Andre Blanco: Nagano, it's Blanco. I'm going to take your questions. Regarding the working capital, what is pushing our working capital is the trade receivables, and inside of trade receivables, we are having increase in the FIES. So we have an increase of 64% of the FIES if you compare to December. This is roughly BRL 90 million in the periods that these push our receivables up in the periods. Talking ahead about FIES, we don't have the expectations to increase the positions of FIES. We are around 22% of the medical students using FIES as of the third quarter. We don't expect to increase these positions going ahead. Regarding CapEx, you are right.

We are a little bit lower than our expected CapEx for the period, but our expectation is that we are going to achieve the guidance that we provided, that is between BRL 340 million to BRL 380 million in the year.

Virgilio Deloy Gibbon: Just to add a point here, Lucas, regarding the FIES. Now, when you compare the schedule of FIES on the second semester of 2026 with the first semester or the previous year, we are in a much later trend. All the amendments are still working, being due by the end of this month. So the growth, the increase on the working capital coming from FIES, I think it's a trend for the entire sector, given the late schedule for the amendments and the renewal of all the contracts coming from FIES. So that's also another. For next year, we are expecting to be flat or a little bit lower in terms of FIES for 2028.

Luis Andre Blanco: But all of that, Nagano, just important just to highlight that even with this increase in receivables, if we compare our cash flow from operating activities with our EBITDA, our cash conversions is 100%. In the first 9 months, of course.

Renata Couto: Okay. Since we do not have any more questions, I thank you all for participating. Thank you and have a good night.

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