Where Will Rigetti Computing Stock Be in 3 Years?

As of Nov. 6, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) stock is down 48.1% in 2026. That's not a typo, and it's not the first quantum stock I've watched do this.

The shares fell 18.7% over the past month, mostly because the whole group got dragged down when quantum computing rival IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) announced a $2.0 billion equity offering in mid-October. Investors sold the whole pile, including Rigetti. The stock traded at more than 300 times trailing sales at the time, and there's not much room for error on those lofty heights.

The sell-off hit the whole group, even companies with little direct exposure to the offering.

Government money, with strings attached

Rigetti's most significant recent development is a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100.0 million over three years, aimed at superconducting quantum research under the CHIPS Act. The deal is not definitive yet.

The government would receive an equity stake, which means new shares. Existing shareholders would face share dilution if and when the deal closes.

Coherence time is the bottleneck

Rigetti's headline numbers are fine. Q2 revenue hit $5.1 million, up from $1.8 million, mostly from on-premises Novera sales. The company's flagship 108-qubit chip runs at about 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity, which sounds great until you remember the three-year goal is 99.9% -- nearly a whole order of magnitude tighter.

Management says the holdup is coherence time, meaning how long a qubit can keep its quantum state before information is lost. That figure is 25 to 30 microseconds in Rigetti's systems. Management hopes to double or triple it over several years, but lab results don't always carry over to production chips.

"Coherence time is the limiting factor for 2-qubit gate fidelity at this time, and that's why we are so focused on improving coherence time," CEO Subodh Kulkarni said on the Q2 earnings call.

Image source: Getty Images.

Three years is the right test

Rigetti has committed to a three-year roadmap, and that window is the most useful yardstick for investors. If it reaches the stated fidelity and scale targets around 2029, the stock's current valuation could look more reasonable in hindsight. But if it misses one or more of the official goals, a stock priced this high has a long way to fall.

Investors who want exposure to quantum computing should size their Rigetti position for the non-zero risk of a poor outcome. Share count rose 3.1% year over year to 333.7 million, and the Commerce deal would add more. I would only buy Rigetti as part of a broader multi-ticker quantum computing sleeve, not as a stand-alone bet. And I'd say the same thing about IonQ, D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS), or Quantinuum (NASDAQ: QNT), too.

Anders Bylund has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.