Avista Corp (AVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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DATE

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• Investor Relations Manager - Stacey Walters
• President and Chief Executive Officer - Heather Rosentrater
• Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Chief Strategy Officer - Kevin Christie

TAKEAWAYS

• GAAP EPS -- $0.57 in the third quarter compared to $0.36, primarily reflecting improved investment performance at nonregulated businesses.
• Non-GAAP Utility EPS -- $0.38 in the third quarter compared to $0.37, driven by cost management and utility operating performance.
• 2026 Earnings Guidance -- Confirmed at $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, with management expecting full-year results to align with the midpoint.
• Other Business Net Income -- $29 million for the first three quarters of 2026 compared to a loss of $13 million, following a recovery in market values and an initial public offering for ERock Inc.
• Energy Recovery Mechanism (ERM) -- An expected negative impact of $0.09 per diluted share for 2026, recognized within the 90% customer and 10% company sharing band.
• Utility Capital Expenditures -- $615 million projected for 2026, with $496 million invested through the first three quarters of the year.
• Five-Year Capital Plan -- $3.6 billion in base capital expenditures from 2027 to 2031, excluding potential compute-related growth.
• Common Stock Issuance -- $58 million issued through Sept. 30, with plans to issue up to $15 million in additional common stock in 2026.
• Long-Term Debt Issuance -- $230 million issued in 2026, with no further long-term debt issuances expected for the remainder of the year.
• 2027 Financing Plan -- Approximately $220 million in long-term debt and up to $110 million in common stock planned for the coming year.
• Available Liquidity -- $168 million under the committed line of credit and $57 million under the letter of credit facility as of Sept. 30.
• Long-Term Return on Equity (ROE) -- Expected run rate of approximately 9%, which assumes a structural lag of 0.6 percentage points.
• Long-Term Earnings Growth -- Targeted at 4% to 6% from the midpoint of 2025 earnings guidance.
• Short-Term Financing -- Up to $100 million in a short-term loan planned for the fourth quarter to manage regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery.
• Prospective Load Growth -- Approximately 85 megawatts of potential load associated with expansion in commercial, manufacturing, and mining sectors.
• Distributed Energy Goal -- 35 megawatts toward a 40-megawatt goal by 2030, secured through demand response agreements.
• North Plains Connector -- A roughly 10% stake targeted in a $6 billion project, with a definitive agreement expected in the first half of 2027.

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RISKS

• Christie stated that the company plans to obtain a short-term loan "due to increased regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery," which management noted as a reason for seeking additional liquidity in the fourth quarter.
• Rosentrater noted that "customer rebuilding efforts could take multiple years" following the Spokane complex wildfires, which may delay the replacement of some utility infrastructure until rebuilding begins.

SUMMARY

Avista Corporation (NYSE:AVA) confirmed its full-year 2026 utility earnings guidance while implementing a strategic pause on large data center applications to ensure long-term customer affordability. The company is managing a transition in its resource mix, including the removal of Colstrip from its generation portfolio and the development of the 2027 Integrated Resource Plan. Management is navigating a heavy regulatory calendar with a pending decision in Washington and upcoming multiyear rate filings in Idaho and Oregon. Capital investment focuses on grid hardening, wildfire preparedness, and meeting growing peak day resource needs through upcoming request for proposal processes.

• Management announced a 12-month pause on processing new large data center applications that require significant generation or transmission investments.
• The Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission is expected to issue a decision on the 2026 general rate case in mid-December.
• The company expects to file its next general rate case in Idaho in the first quarter of 2027 and its first five-year rate plan in Oregon in the fall of 2027.
• CEO Rosentrater stated, "As our peak day resource needs continue to outpace earlier predictions, the draft preferred resource strategy includes additional peaking resources."
• The company exited its interest in the Colstrip coal-fired power plant in 2026, which impacted both fuel costs and depreciation expenses.
• Management is exploring a state-level tariff to provide assurances that existing customers will not be burdened with costs associated with serving new large data centers.
• CFO Christie noted that structural lag of approximately 60 basis points remains a factor in the long-term return on equity run rate.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• CCA: Climate Commitment Act, a Washington state program related to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon allowances.
• Colstrip: A coal-fired power plant in Montana from which the company has transitioned its ownership.
• Dead Band: A range in the Energy Recovery Mechanism where the utility bears all power supply cost variances before sharing begins with customers.
• ERM: Energy Recovery Mechanism, a regulatory tool used to track and share differences between actual and authorized power supply costs.
• IRP: Integrated Resource Plan, a long-term roadmap for meeting future energy demand through a mix of resources.
• PGA: Purchased Gas Adjustment, a regulatory mechanism allowing natural gas utilities to adjust rates based on changes in the cost of gas.
• RFP: Request for Proposal, a formal process used to solicit bids for new energy resources or services.
• Structural Lag: The difference between authorized returns and actual returns due to the timing and recovery of costs in the regulatory process.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Avista Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this call may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Stacey Walters, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Stacey Wenz: Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Avista's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings and third quarter Form 10-Q were released premarket this morning. You can find both documents in this presentation on our website. Joining me today are Avista Corp, President and CEO, Heather Rosentrater; and Senior Vice President, CFO, Treasurer and Chief Strategy Officer, Kevin Christie. We will make forward-looking statements during this call. These involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change. Various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations we discuss in today's call.

Please refer to our Form 10-K for 2025 and our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 for a full discussion of these risk factors. Both are available on our website. On this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP utility earnings. Our third quarter earnings presentation is posted on our website and includes definitions and reconciliations for non-GAAP disclosures. Our non-GAAP utility earnings are comprised of results from our Avista Utilities and AEL&P segments. The investment gains and losses that have historically made up the majority of our nonregulated business earnings can be significant but they are difficult to predict and outside management's control.

Non-GAAP utility earnings facilitate meaningful evaluation of our operating performance across periods and reflects management's core utility focus. We believe it is important to discuss these utility results in addition to our GAAP results. Let's begin this morning with a recap of the financial results presented in today's press release. Our consolidated earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $2.11 per diluted share compared to $1.51 for the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our consolidated third quarter 2026 earnings were $0.57 per diluted share compared to $0.36 in the third quarter of 2025.

Our non-GAAP utility earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $1.76 per diluted share, compared to $1.67 per diluted share in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our third quarter 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings were $0.38 per diluted share compared to $0.37 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Heather.

Heather Rosentrater: Thank you, Stacey. I first want to provide a follow-up to our second quarter earnings call where we discuss the devastating Spokane complex wildfires our communities experienced in August. Although it is clear that recovery will be a long road, I am happy to share that our community has experienced an incredible amount of support and that our community itself has shown up in a wide variety of ways to help those impacted. Our hearts continue to be with those who are starting that long road to recovery.

And with the third quarter now complete and with a welcome transition to fall, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made advancing the priorities that support reliable service for customers and sustainable long-term value. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, we continue to strengthen reliability and resilience, through grid hardening, wildfire preparedness and enhanced outage response capabilities. We also advanced resource planning and clean energy solutions, including progress on our 2027 Integrated Resource Plan. Through strong strategic execution and performance on Avista Utilities through the first 3 quarters of the year, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for the remainder of the year.

Given that the Spokane complex wildfires were still active during our second quarter earnings call, we didn't have a full understanding of the overall impact to our facilities at that time. While the overall community impact has been devastating, ultimately, the impact of our facilities was not material. We also understand that each of these fires was human caused, and we are confident that our facilities were not involved. As I mentioned, for the neighborhoods affected, recovery and rebuilding will be a lengthy process, and some of our own infrastructure can't be replaced until rebuilding begins.

We anticipate that in some cases, customer rebuilding efforts could take multiple years, and we stand ready to reconnect customers when it's possible to do so. Throughout recovery, our focus will remain where it always is. Providing safe, reliable and affordable service to meet customers' needs when they arise. Affordability continues to be a top priority at Avista. Understanding the financial pressures our customers face is fundamental to developing effective strategies to provide assistance where it's needed most. With enhanced data, we have better insights to guide resource allocation as well as direct the programs we support and future investments across our service territory.

As we look ahead to a changing energy landscape, this focus on affordability better enables us to meet customers' needs today and prepare to serve them in the future. We appreciate that identifying ways to support customer affordability is a shared priority among our investors, our customers and ourselves. It is important to note that one of our key strategies to support customer affordability is responsible growth, and to support long-term responsible growth. After listening to customer and community feedback and to allow time for us to participate in a broader coordinated planning effort, we announced in September that we have paused processing new large data center applications that require significant new generation or transmission investments.

This pause respects the moratorium in place in several local jurisdictions including the City of Spokane and Spokane County, and the proceeding at the Washington Commission. We expect the pause to last at least 12 months of state regulators and local government's advanced policy and regulatory frameworks. This is not the withdrawal from potential growth opportunities. As I shared, it is one of our main strategies to support affordability. We remain engaged with regulators, policymakers, local jurisdictions and other stakeholders, even as we strengthen our own governance, customer qualification and planning processes to support informed investment decision making into the future.

As we take the time to strengthen these areas, we remain committed to protecting existing customers and maintaining safe, reliable service. Even after the pause, we won't move forward with the new large data center customer unless we are confident they will cover their own costs. And in addition to covering their own costs, that they will make significant contributions to support affordability for our existing customers. And we won't move forward with the new large load customer unless we're confident that our customers' reliability will be maintained or enhanced. Any future projects must meet regulatory and public interest requirements while supporting responsible growth that benefits our communities over the long run.

In order to strengthen assurances related to these customer protection commitments, we are exploring regulatory mechanisms and other policy options that can provide existing customers with more confidence that they won't be burdened with costs associated with serving potential new large data centers. Although we have paused processing new large data center request that require significant new generation of transmission investments, we are fortunate to have other growth opportunities associated with customers evaluating expansion, representing commercial, manufacturing and mining sectors. Each of these opportunities has a different time line and taken together over the long term, prospective load associated with these opportunities would be approximately 85 megawatts.

We are grateful to be part of these activities that strengthen the local economy and existing customer affordability, and which could be additive to our normal organic growth. As we plan for the future, we remain focused on reliable, affordable energy that meets customer needs and supports our clean energy goals. We are moving forward with the projects selected to advance through our all-source request for proposal or RFP, including demand response agreements expected to provide up to 35 megawatts toward our 40-megawatt distributed energy goal by 2030, along with key renewable energy projects. Work began this year on our next Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP. We expect to file the 2027 IRP late this year or early next year.

As our peak day resource needs continue to outpace earlier predictions, the draft preferred resource strategy includes additional peaking resources. We expect another RFP to occur soon after the filing of our 2027 IRP. Together, this progress on our operational priorities and effective cost management reinforce our confidence. We remain focused on executing the priorities that support reliable and affordable service for customers, constructive long-term growth and sound financial performance. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for additional discussion of our financial results.

Kevin Christie: Thanks, Heather. We continue to execute well across our business through the third quarter with a focus on delivering results at the utility and managing our costs. Our utility earnings in 2026 reflects the benefits of our cost discipline and improved cost recovery. We remain on track as we move into the final quarter of the year. At our other businesses, net income was $29 million in the first 3 quarters of 2026, compared to a loss of $13 million in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Market values have recovered from the valuation losses experienced in 2025. In 2026 -- in June of 2026, one of the businesses in an EIP fund, ERock Inc., conducted an initial public offering.

Our third quarter consolidated results reflect the associated increase in valuation. Among our initiatives, regulatory outcomes are key to our progress. For our 2026 Washington general rate case, we appreciate the party's engagement and constructive hearings in September. Final briefs have been filed and we expect the commission to issue a decision in mid-December. As we look ahead, we anticipate filing our next general rate cases in Idaho in the first quarter of 2027. Our next filing in Oregon will take place under the state's new multiyear rate plan legislation and is slated for the fall in 2027. In accordance with Oregon Commission rules, we will file a 5-year rate plan.

We continue to invest in our utility infrastructure to support customers. We expect capital expenditures at Avista Utilities of $615 million in 2026. Through September 30, we have invested $496 million in our capital projects this year. For 2027 through 2031, we expect base capital expenditures of $3.6 billion. This includes the projects selected from our 2025 RFP expected in 2028. We continue to evaluate incremental capital investment opportunities that support serving our customers safely and reliability, including addressing the growing peak day resource needs Heather mentioned.

Given the pause we have taken in both our existing MOU with the data center developer and in processing any large data center applications, we do not include any compute related growth in our capital plan at this time. Turning to liquidity. We issued $58 million of common stock in the first 3 quarters of the year. Subject to market conditions, we expect to issue up to $15 million of additional common stock in 2026. We issued $230 million of long-term debt in '26, and we do not expect further issuances of long-term debt this year. Due to increased regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery, we plan to obtain a short-term loan of up to $100 million during the fourth quarter.

In 2027, we expect to issue approximately $220 million of long-term debt and up to $110 million of common stock. We are affirming our non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for '26. We expect our earnings to be in line with the midpoint. Our guidance includes an expected negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism, or ERM of $0.09 in the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band, which we have recognized in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our expected long-term return on equity at Avista Utilities is approximately 9% excluding any impact from the ERM. This reflects expected structural lag of 0.6%.

Over the long term, we continue to expect that our earnings will grow 4% to 6% and from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance. Throughout 2026, we kept our focus on delivering results at the utility, and that focus won't shift as we look to the remainder of the fourth quarter and on into 2027. We remain committed to financial strength, making smart investments in our infrastructure that deliver long-term value to both the communities we serve as well as our shareholders. Now we'd be happy to answer your questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo Securities.

Whitney Mutalemwa: This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar. So on the power cost, so staff was constructive on your new forecasting method and on updating the baseline every year, if the order adapts that, how much of that roughly $0.09 of power cost drag in this year's guidance should likely go away in '27?

Kevin Christie: Well, it's certainly difficult to predict what might happen in power supply markets as we look forward. And if we were able to see a commission order supporting our power supply costs as filed then we would see largely an elimination of that $0.09. Now again, there are a number of variables that could come into play as we look forward, but the intent would be to get the ERM back to closer to 0, certainly within the dead band.

Whitney Mutalemwa: Of course. And then just another one. So obviously, this update flags incremental capital for growing peak day resource needs with the RFP projects moving forward and the '27 resource plan underway. Could you just give us an overview of what we can expect and timing of that opportunity?

Kevin Christie: Are you asking particularly around the '27 IRP?

Whitney Mutalemwa: Yes.

Kevin Christie: So with the '27 IRP, it's important to note that it's in draft form at this point in time. We'd expect to file the final version towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. And then what would happen, and assuming that the current draft preferred resource plan moves forward into that final filed copy, we would then expect to need incremental resources on a peak day basis, and we would go out within the next few months after that with an RFP, all-source RFP to help bring on those peak day resources.

Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

Michael Lonegan: So you touched on the ERM, but just more broadly in the Washington rate case, you concluded post-hearing briefs. We're coming up on a final decision next month. I know there's some disagreement on the multiyear rate plan. Just wondering if broadly, you could touch upon some of the key debates and how you're feeling about them supporting your plan?

Kevin Christie: Yes, thanks for the question. We have had, I would say, a very constructive process as we worked with the parties throughout the case. And I'm proud of what our [ team ] has done for putting forth a high-quality case, a case that supports what we need to support our customers overall. And certainly, there are issues. You highlight one of them, the back and forth there between the 4-year and perhaps a 2-year was a pretty significant one, but not surprising at all given that this is the first 4-year that's been filed under the multiyear legislation. And as we all know, when you move into something that's new and different, there are different perspectives that come forward.

And so we appreciate how the parties have looked at it and are a little uneasy about the 4-year nature of this case. We would point out years 3 and 4, although I don't want to diminish the importance from an affordability perspective, years 3 and 4 are relatively modest. And given the preponderance of evidence that we put forth, we think we've given the commission an opportunity to prove that for you. The other issues that come up are pretty normal things in our rate cases, ROE and there's a lot of attention on ROE right now.

We have given, I think, through our expert witnesses and the need from a risk perspective, the commission an opportunity to approve what we put forth there and we'll see how that shakes out. And the rest of it is generally around capital recovery. We've got a good track record in the past around what's called provisional capital, but that got a fair amount of attention. And then we had some tracking mechanisms either existing or a new tracking mechanism that had attention as well. So those were all discussed in the hearing, and we briefed on those. And then fortunately, in the next 6 weeks or so, we'll hear from the commission.

Michael Lonegan: And then you talked about potential incremental CapEx. Just wondering how we should think about the mix of debt and equity financing. I think in the past, you talked about 50-50. I know you're doing a little less equity this year than planned and you issued '27. Do you have an FFO to debt target over the course of your plan?

Kevin Christie: Yes. We currently want to of course, stay at the rating that we're at with the rating agencies. And so we have, as we look to our forecast, the ability to support that comfortably. And so that isn't something barring, something unforeseen that we're tremendously worried about. When it comes to expected equity issuances on a go-forward basis, when we indicate that we have incremental capital expenditure opportunities, it's likely near 50-50. But I do want to highlight that with some of our other investments, as they might return proceeds back in the form of cash, that could lighten the equity needs that we have.

And that's why we typically communicate an up-to number. for you so you can have something to model at what might be the high end.

Michael Lonegan: And then lastly for me, on the North Plains Connector project, I know it likely falls outside your 5-year plan. I think a number of months ago, you signed an MOU. Just wondering when you're expecting a definitive agreement there and then also the size of your CapEx opportunity on the potential 10% stake.

Kevin Christie: Yes, that one continues to move out a bit. I think we would -- we initially had hoped by the end of this year. I think it's likely first half of next year at this point in time as we work with all the partners. It's always a little bit more complex when you have as many potential owners as we have. But we're confident that we can find a way to move forward with everyone and then midyear give you an update, hopefully, on that. And the overall capital for the build-out would be about $6 billion, and we would be roughly 10%.

Operator: Our next question comes from David Rold with Bank of America.

Matthew David Rold: Question on the Washington rate case. Once the new rates are in, how close do you expect your authorized return in 2027? Is lag still meaningful? Or does this mostly close the gap?

Kevin Christie: Yes. As we've mentioned in the past, we would expect, once we have a constructive rate case outcome in Washington, we have the Idaho case and the Oregon cases filed, and we get on the proper cadence there, and we continue to manage our costs importantly that we would expect a long-term return on equity of 9%. And that -- what that builds in is roughly 60 basis points of structural lag. Those are the costs that we're unable to recover through rates for various reasons. So 9% is our run rate as we look forward.

And it also -- that also assumes that we're at the midpoint from an ERM perspective, meaning within the dead band and we have reset power supply costs at an appropriate level.

Matthew David Rold: And with rate base growing a little over 7%, what would it take to get you guys to the top end of your 4% to 6% growth range? What are the biggest factors holding back today?

Kevin Christie: Well, I think what we're going to need to see is some of those or most of those incremental investment opportunities that Heather alluded to and that we've mentioned in the past. We do see transmission investment potential out there in our region, both within and without outside of our service territory. We have incremental customer growth that we're seeing, and we hope to bring that to fruition. Important to point out that as Heather mentioned, if we were able to bring those on, it's a handful or more of , commercial and mining loads that taken in total, again, if we were able to bring them all on, would raise our average day load by almost 10%.

So that's an important investment if we're able to bring those over the finish line. And then on top of that, we need to see how both the RFP coming out of the next IRP shakes out and then thinking about that North Plains connector that we mentioned already.

Operator: Our next question comes from Chris Hark with Mizuho.

Chris Hark: I just had a question on the data center pause in Washington. Just any protections that would be required? Just any color you could give us on that? And then how large is that data center opportunity sitting behind the pause?

Heather Rosentrater: So related to the pause. We have our commitments, but we recognize that our customers may be looking for something stronger than our verbal commitments. I mean, we have been very clear and consistent on those commitments that any -- we wouldn't move forward unless it would any data center would cover their own costs and provide meaningful additional support for existing customers from an affordability perspective. And we are -- so to help with those assurances, we are exploring whether having some kind of tariff at the state level or just engaging in policy discussions at the state level as well as those could provide additional assurances for our customers.

Related to the level of request, that will likely evolve a lot over the next 12 months. So I think it's probably -- it's challenging to say right now where that might land at the end of 12 months, but we'll look to update as we get closer to that -- to the end of that pause.

Operator: This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Stacey Walters for closing remarks.

Stacey Wenz: Thank you all for joining us and for your interest in Avista. Have a great day.

Operator: Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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