Coinbase Stock Forecast: COIN Tests $139.33 Support After the Binance Hack and a Weak Trading Quarter

TradingKey - Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) fell 10.62% to $143.54 on Friday, October 30, just above its lowest close of the past year, $141.09 on February 12. It was the first session after two blows on Thursday, October 29: a record $6.36 billion hack at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and Coinbase's own third-quarter results, which showed transaction revenue down 44%.

The weekend brought some relief. Binance said it had replenished 95% of the losses and began reopening withdrawals on November 1. But the stock had already fallen about 24% in October, and its core trading business is shrinking.

What Happened at Binance

On October 29, attackers moved about $6.36 billion out of Binance wallets across ten blockchains, most of it in about 20 minutes, according to TRM Labs. That is about four times the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in 2025. The FBI tied the attack to North Korea, and about $3 billion in stablecoins, tokens pegged to the dollar, was frozen, mainly by Tether and Circle.

Binance pledged to cover all customer losses and said on November 1 that it had replenished 95% of them. Withdrawals resumed on November 1, starting with Ethereum, USDT and USDC. Bitcoin fell about 5% to below $80,000 after the news.

Coinbase's Profit Came From Bitcoin, Not Trading

Revenue fell 35% from a year earlier to $1.22 billion, flat with Q2 and slightly below the $1.233 billion estimate. Net income was $719 million, or $2.51 a share, but $715 million of that came from unrealized gains, meaning paper gains on crypto Coinbase holds, as bitcoin rose 42.7% during the quarter. Adjusted net income was only $78 million.

Transaction revenue fell 44% to $590 million as retail spot trading volume dropped 59%, though that still beat the roughly $527 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit before items such as depreciation and stock-based pay, reached $333 million, above the roughly $290 million expected.

The Diversification Story

Subscription and services revenue came in at $570 million, close to half of the total, including $307 million from stablecoins, mostly USDC. Coinbase's share of crypto trading volume rose to 10.7%, its fourth straight quarterly gain, and prediction markets passed a $200 million annual revenue run rate. For Q4, Coinbase guided subscription and services revenue to $550 million to $630 million and said transaction revenue reached about $165 million through October 25.

Risk or Opportunity?

The risk is easy to see. The largest crypto theft on record could hurt trust, and a lower bitcoin price would cut both trading volumes and the value of Coinbase's own crypto, reversing part of Q3's gains.

Several analysts see it differently. Cantor Fitzgerald said, "We would be buyers on weakness," and Compass Point said, "We believe Binance has more than enough liquidity to cover the hole." CoinDesk noted the hack could also push business toward regulated rivals such as Coinbase. In my view, if Binance's recovery holds, this becomes a market-share story for Coinbase rather than a trust crisis for the whole sector.

Coinbase Technical Analysis: Daily Close Below $139.33 Could Open $125.76

The selloff shows clearly on the daily chart. Friday's low at $136.89 briefly pierced $139.33, a support floor that has held since February, but buyers pulled the price back above it by the close, which keeps that level alive. COIN still trades far below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, moving averages that give more weight to recent prices, at $173.54 and $175.91, so sellers remain in control. Overnight trading was nearly unchanged at $143.49.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has fallen to about 32, close to 30, the oversold line, and the MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is still sliding.

COIN Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

If $139.33 holds, a bounce toward $162.55 is possible, and a later retest that holds could form a double bottom, a pattern where two lows at the same level suggest selling is running out. A daily close below $139.33, however, could send COIN toward $125.76 and then $112.48.

I'm bearish below $162.55, with everything hinging on $139.33.

Key Levels

• Last close: $143.54, down 10.62% on Friday, October 30
• Support: $139.33, $125.76, $112.48
• Resistance: $162.55, $173.54, $175.91
• RSI: 31.91, close to the 30 oversold line
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $162.55
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $139.33

FAQs

Why did Coinbase stock fall?

Coinbase dropped 10.62% on Friday after a record $6.36 billion hack at Binance hit crypto prices and its Q3 results showed transaction revenue down 44%, with most of its profit coming from bitcoin gains rather than trading.

What is the Coinbase stock forecast now?

The bias is bearish below $162.55 on the daily chart. A daily close below $139.33 could open $125.76 and $112.48, while holding that level could allow a bounce toward $162.55.

Bottom Line

Coinbase is becoming less dependent on trading, but Q3 showed how much its profit still rides on bitcoin's price. The level that matters is $139.33, the floor since February. I expect a bounce toward $162.55 only if Binance's recovery steadies crypto prices, while a daily close below $139.33 would open $125.76.