Nvidia Stock Is 10% Below Its Record. Does Anthropic's IPO Filing Make It a Buy?

Anthropic made its initial public offering (IPO) filing public on Monday, showing what the Claude maker has agreed to pay to rent computing power built on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips. Deals with three providers have a price tag: up to $120.5 billion with SpaceXAI, an arm of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), around $44.6 billion with Nscale, and about $41.3 billion with Lambda.

All told, that's up to about $206 billion. But they're rental contracts with cloud providers, not chip orders, and the same filing commits even more money to computing on Google's chips.

Nvidia shares were up about 2% on Monday as of this writing, at around $216 -- still about 10% below their Oct. 6 record close. I think the filing says less about Nvidia's future sales than that $206 billion suggests.

Image source: Nvidia.

How much of the money goes to Nvidia?

The biggest part mainly rents capacity that's already built, or will be by December. In May, Anthropic said it would use all the capacity at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center, which has over 220,000 Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs), including older H100 and H200 chips. By late May, the deal also covered capacity at SpaceX's newer Colossus 2 site. Hardware that must be running by December is mostly already sold, or shipping now.

When the full SpaceXAI capacity arrives, the rent runs around $3.1 billion a month. But those contracts are also the easiest to exit. After their initial lock-in periods end in early 2027, either side can cancel with 90 days' notice.

The Nscale and Lambda deals look more like new demand, as that capacity still needs to be built. But Nscale must use its best efforts to line up financing for the Nvidia GPUs and the data center infrastructure. And Lambda's biggest agreement, around $34.9 billion, can be canceled if Lambda doesn't secure its facility lease in time.

Of course, rent pays for more than chips. It also covers the buildings, the power, the financing, and the provider's profit. So Nvidia's share of the $206 billion is likely much smaller.

Anthropic also committed at least $44.9 billion to Microsoft through May 2033, but didn't say how much of that runs on Nvidia chips. A July supply deal with Advanced Micro Devices for its Helios rack-scale systems could also top $20 billion if Anthropic takes its full initial capacity.

Google's chips get the bigger commitments

Anthropic agreed to spend at least around $114.5 billion with Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG) Google through July 2033, and it estimates that extra computing on Google's tensor processing units (TPUs) from 2028 to 2031 could cost between $125 billion and $150 billion. Its leases with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) for TPU-based hardware total around $161.2 billion in rent. Amazon, which makes its own Trainium chips, gets a commitment of at least $110.0 billion.

Put another way, Google and Broadcom alone account for about $276 billion, leaving out the extra TPU estimate. Unlike the SpaceXAI deals, these commitments can't be canceled except in narrow cases, like a default or the other side's uncured breach.

Anthropic's revenue soared to $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026 from $1.2 billion a year before. But it's steering more of its committed money to Google's chips than to Nvidia's.

Nvidia's growth doesn't depend on Anthropic

For the second quarter of fiscal 2027 (the three months ended July 26, 2026), Nvidia's data center business (home to its AI chips and systems) had revenue of $89.0 billion, over twice the year-ago total. That followed $75.2 billion in fiscal Q1 and $62.3 billion in fiscal Q4 2026, so the business has been adding roughly $13 billion or more every quarter.

At that latest rate, the business takes in about $356 billion a year. Anthropic's full SpaceXAI rent runs about $37 billion a year, and just some of that flows to Nvidia.

"This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout," CEO Jensen Huang said in Nvidia's fiscal Q2 earnings release. Now, he said, "multiple frontier labs" are "scaling in parallel."

After all, investors aren't paying much for that growth. At around $216, Nvidia stock trades at about 14 times the earnings per share analysts expect for its fiscal 2028 (its year ending January 2028). Broadcom, in comparison, goes for about 17 times the earnings expected in its next fiscal year.

So, is Nvidia stock a buy after Anthropic's filing? The $206 billion number overstates what's headed Nvidia's way, and Google's chips are winning more of Anthropic's commitments. But Nvidia's growth doesn't rest on any one lab, and its valuation arguably already assumes growth will slow sharply.

I'd consider buying Nvidia stock at about $216. The filing just doesn't do much for that case by itself.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.