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Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026
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Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) reported a third consecutive increase to its full-year 2026 guidance following quarterly results that exceeded management expectations. The company reported that market share gains in off-road vehicles and strong demand in utility-focused segments drove top-line growth. Management noted that approximately $0.30 of earnings shifted into the third quarter from the fourth quarter due to earlier-than-anticipated snowmobile shipments and improved throughput on a new lean manufacturing line in Huntsville. Capital allocation during the quarter prioritized debt reduction, which helped the company achieve its net leverage target of 2.0x.
Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Polaris Third Quarter 26 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to J. C. Weigelt. Please go ahead.
Weigelt: Thank you, Chad, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I am J. C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our 26 third quarter earnings call. We will reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com. Joining me on the call today are Michael T. Speetzen, our Chief Executive Officer and Robert Paul Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have prepared remarks summarizing our 26 third quarter results as well as our expectations for the remainder of 2026 Then we will take your questions.
During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 2000. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward looking statements. You can refer to our 30 ks and our other filings with the SEC for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties. All references to 26 third quarter actual results and future period guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation and at the end of our earnings deck for the GAAP to non GAAP adjustments.
Now, I will turn the call over to Michael T. Speetzen. Go ahead, Mike.
Michael T. Speetzen: Thanks, JC. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered another strong quarter with results exceeding our expectations and demonstrating that the actions we have taken over the past several years are making Polaris a stronger, more focused and more profitable company. We are the global leader in power sports with leading share in the largest US manufacturing footprint in the industry. Our portfolio serves all who play and work outside and today, over half of our sales come from customers who buy their vehicles for work. From farms to ranches to commercial job sites as well as government agencies and the military. I am proud of how the Polaris team continues to execute.
They have stayed focused and have done a great job navigating a dynamic environment. As a result, dealer inventory remains healthy We gained share in ORV for the sixth consecutive quarter and once again we delivered industry leading innovative products that were launched at our dealer shows in August. While the consumer environment remains dynamic, we continue to focus on what we can control That focus is driving share gains, translating into stronger operating performance and we believe positioning us to deliver our full year outlook in mid cycle targets. Third quarter reported sales increased 11% and excluding Indian Motorcycle from Q3 of 25, sales grew 17%.
Sales growth was driven by high single digit growth in ORV double digit growth in PG and A and high double digit growth in commercial, government and defense and marine as well as over 100% growth in seasonal. Our growth was driven by growing end markets and share gains in ORV. Strong growth in large capital projects such as data centers increasing the need for our commercial products Given the level of infrastructure investment we are seeing, we believe this business has a long runway for growth. Growing government and defense demand supported by increased defense spending across the U.S., Canada and NATO with U.S.-manufactured utility and snow product contributing to that growth.
Robust ridership leading to higher parts and accessory sales meaningful innovation across ORV and marine, and healthy dealer inventory levels which allowed us to ship in snowmobiles ahead of the season. Growth this broad in a soft consumer market shows the strength of a portfolio built for both utility and recreation. Turning to margins, adjusted EBITDA margin improved 118 basis points to 8.8%. Positive contributors to margins were volume, net price and operational efficiencies. As expected, offsetting these gains were higher commodity costs driven by elevated prices for steel, diesel, aluminum and logistics. Our lean work in our manufacturing facilities helped offset more than half of the commodity pressure.
We also recorded $10 million in IEEPA tariff refunds related interest during the quarter. As we did last quarter, we have removed these refunds from our adjusted financial metrics and will refer to them as operational adjusted results on today's call and our earnings materials. Excluding these refunds, our operational performance drove margins higher by approximately 85 basis points. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.08 which includes the pretax $10 million in tariff refunds. Excluding these tariff refunds, operational adjusted EPS was $0.95 compared to $0.41 last year and was well above our expectations.
In July, we noted that our earnings split between the third and fourth quarter could shift for the timing of fall and winter shipments, which is a portion of the Q3 over performance given higher than expected shipments in snowmobile and utility. This year with snowmobile dealer inventory in good shape, we shipped a portion of those units in the third quarter to ensure dealers had inventory to meet early season consumer demand. Bob will walk through the details in his remarks. As a result of our third quarter performance and the momentum we are seeing across the business, we are raising guidance for the third time this year.
Excluding tariff refunds, we now expect operational EPS of $2.40 to $2.50 up from our prior guidance of $2.05 to $2.15 And while uncertainty remains, October retail is tracking in line with expectations. We still have work ahead of us, but the business is on increasingly solid footing and we remain confident that our focus on innovation disciplined inventory management and operational execution is positioning Polaris well as we head into 2027. Moving to our retail performance, total company retail was flat for the quarter ORV North American retail was up 2%, the industry and gaining share for the sixth consecutive quarter.
This growth was even more impressive as we were comparing against a very strong third quarter of 25 where North American ORV retail grew 9% on the heels of a successful FAC event. Trends within ORV remain consistent with recent quarters. With utility growing and recreation seeing pressure from external factors. Because we serve customers who use our vehicles for work as well as for fun, utility growth more than offset softness and more discretionary recreational markets resulting in ORV retail growth. ORV utility continues to be the biggest driver for our business as it represents over 60% of Polaris Power Sports sales.
From the value tier Ranger 500 and Sportsman 500, to the new Ranger cab units, the premium NorthStar lines, and Ranger XD 1.5 thousand we give dealers and customers a broad and innovative utility portfolio. 6 straight quarters of share gains reflect that strength. Additional data points that demonstrate our leadership position in ORV include this quarter marked our highest third quarter ORV share in since the third quarter of 2019. The Ranger 500 helped our midsized portfolio of Rangers gain more than 10 points of segment share in the quarter. Our Ranger cab units gained multiple points of share in the quarter and still represent over 50% of our Ranger sales.
Cab units with comfort features such as AC and heat continue to grow faster than the broader industry. For Polaris specifically, we have seen over 70% growth in utility cab units since 2023. We are shipping 3 new vehicles to dealers in the fourth quarter. The first is the Polaris Expedition with pneumatics. This is our second generation Expedition while competitors have yet to launch a product that we believe is comparable. The second is the RZR Pro R Boost, the industry's most powerful side by side with a leading 275 horsepower and 223 pound-feet of torque. And third is our new value tier ATV, the Sportsman 500.
Our close relationships with dealers is paying off as our survey work reflects an improvement in dealer sentiment over the last 2 years with the recent data set showing us tied for the lead. And finally, our commercial government and defense businesses deserve mention. Commercial demand is tied to infrastructure and data center construction and these construction contractors rely on our purpose built vehicles and our parts support to keep their projects running. In government defense, we are seeing growth across a range of customers and applications. Supported by increased defense spending across The U. S, Canada and NATO. These customers buy on government budgets and project schedules rather than on consumer confidence.
That gives these businesses a different profile through the cycle than recreation. A highlight of the quarter for me was attending the ORV and Marine Dealer Shows and Product launches in August. Nothing is more energizing than seeing our dealers overtaken with excitement for our new products. I am proud of the products we have recently launched, but what makes me even more excited is what is ahead. We have a strong pipeline of innovation. Innovative products planned for the next 3 to 4 years, and I believe the best is yet to come. Turning to marine, our third quarter pontoon retail was down low double digits. According to the August SSI report.
The good news is that we gained pontoon share in the quarter, but it remains a challenging industry. Our intention is to keep innovating to drive consumer interest and ensure we have an attractive portfolio of pontoons and deck boats when the industry recovers. We continue to see healthy dealer inventory levels across our portfolio. During the third quarter, we again strategically increased inventory and utility given the robust growth we are experiencing in this category. We did see a slight increase in ORV recreational inventory associated with the timing of the new Polaris Expedition launch, but expect it to be to normalized by year end.
We also continue to take the appropriate actions to right size dealer inventory in our seasonal business and we entered the snowmobile season with dealer inventory in the best position in years. In aggregate, dealer inventory was up 3% in the quarter versus last year and dealer DSOs are slightly over 100 days which remains well below historic levels. We remain committed to matching shipments to retail and we have expect dealer inventory to end the year in a healthy position. Relative to retail.
Robert Paul Mack: I am now going to turn it over to Bob to provide more details on the financials and the increase to our full year guidance.
Michael T. Speetzen: Thanks Mike. The strong momentum we saw in the first half of the year continued into the third quarter and we delivered results well above our expectations. Across each of our key financial metrics, sales were up 11% or 17% organically excluding Indian Motorcycle. As Mike noted, some of the growth came from the earlier timing of vehicle shipments, mainly snowmobiles, which I will walk through shortly. We also saw strong contributions coming from ORV, commercial, government and defense, and marine. Total PG&A sales were up 12%, driven by parts and oil, which we attribute to strong ridership data and strong sales in apparel ahead of the snow season.
We received $10 million of tariff refunds and related interest that was not contemplated in our July outlook. Excluding the refunds, operational adjusted EBITDA margin still increased 85 basis points and operational adjusted EPS was $0.95 versus $0.41 a year ago. Underlying performance was strong in the quarter, In addition, approximately $0.30 of adjusted EPS shifted from the fourth quarter into the third quarter primarily due to 2 timing items. First, we were able to ramp up efficient Ranger production on the new lean line in our facility earlier than anticipated. When the line opened in early July, we expected the benefits to be more heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter as operators adjusted to the new process.
The team progressed more quickly than anticipated allowing us to capture a greater portion of those shipments in the third quarter. Second, healthy snowmobile inventory at our dealers allowed us to ship more product ahead of the season than we have historically. These earlier shipments benefit our dealers by providing additional setup time, and allowing them to focus on retail execution during the selling season. Although these items affected the quarterly cadence, both reflect positive developments faster progress on our lean initiatives and healthier snow inventory across our dealer network.
Robert Paul Mack: We Turning to our segments, 18% year-over-year with growth across our major product lines. Seasonal, commercial and government and defense delivered particularly strong performances, while ORV also generated high single digit growth. Overall, it was another strong quarter for the segment. Utility continues to be a key strength and differentiator for Polaris. Our broad Ranger portfolio spans across the value tier through ultra premium and extreme duty products. Complemented by our commercial business where we continue to see strong demand at large job sites such as data centers. Utility products represented approximately 60% of powersports sales and more than 50% of powersports sales in the quarter.
This mix differentiates Polaris from our direct competitors and the other leisure companies that have greater exposure to discretionary purchases. Many of our customers rely on our industry leading products to get work done whether on a ranch, a farm, a data center project, a general construction site, or at a municipal facility. Powersports PG and A sales were up 19% driven by factory installed accessories and oil sales. Providing further evidence that customers continue to ride and use our vehicles. Commercial PG and A revenues were up significantly bolstered by parts and factory installed accessories and configurations requested by our commercial customers. Gross profit margin from operations declined 19 basis points.
Positive net price and operational efficiencies partially offset 190 basis point headwind from commodities, logistics and tariff costs. As we discussed last quarter, commodities and logistics continue to be 1 of the more significant year over year pressures in the second half of the year. Marine sales were up 29%, driven by a richer mix of pontoons led by the Bennington QS and Godfrey Sanpan premium lines. Gross margin increased 43 basis points year over year reflecting favorable mix and operational efficiencies. We expect premium mix to remain a positive contributor through the selling season. Higher commodity costs particularly aluminum, continued to pressure our margins. And we expect that headwind to persist while aluminum prices remain elevated.
Aixam-Goupil sales were down 12%, reflecting our planned reduction in Aixam shipments to better align dealer inventory with retail demand heading into the New Year. Gross profit margin declined 47 basis points year over year primarily due to these lower planned volumes. Our capital deployment priorities remain unchanged. First, investing in core businesses to drive higher margin profitable growth. Second, returning capital to shareholders through our dividends and third, reducing debt. As we expected, cash generation was strong in the third quarter with operating cash flow of $382 million as seasonal working capital unwound. We used that cash to reduce total debt by $320 million mostly by repaying borrowings under our revolving credit facility.
Supported by our strong year to date operational performance, we reduced our net leverage ratio from 3.4x at the beginning of the year to 2x at the end of the third quarter. We expect to make further progress in Exit 2026 with net leverage below 2x. We remain confident in our financial position and we continue to take a disciplined approach to capital deployment. We plan to continue to strengthen balance sheet flexibility while managing the business in line with investment grade metrics. We now expect year end working capital to be negative 2% of sales, a 100 basis point improvement versus prior expectations.
We expect working capital reductions to continue into next year as we continue to localize our supply chain in North America which also reduces our tariff exposure to China. Moving to guidance, we are raising our full year outlook given our third quarter beat and continued strength across the business. This is the third time we have raised guidance this year, demonstrating the consistent operational execution of our teams and the improving earnings power of the business. We now expect full year sales of $7.55 billion to $7.6 billion representing growth of approximately 6% with both ends of the range above our prior guidance.
Excluding the sale of Indian Motorcycle in the first quarter, this range reflects approximately 11% organic sales growth at the midpoint. We expect fourth quarter organic sales to be roughly flat as Q4 retail is expected to be flattish and the shift of snowmobile shipments into the third quarter are partially offset by year over year sales growth in marine. We are also narrowing our full year adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to the upper end of our prior range. We now expect adjusted EBITDA margin to increase 270 to 275 basis points. An operational basis, excluding tariff refunds, we expect margin expansion of approximately 165 to 170 basis points compared with our prior outlook of 145 to 170 basis points.
The primary operational drivers of this year's margin expansion are higher volume, favorable mix and operational efficiencies. These are partially offset by higher commodity and logistics costs which we expect to be $70 million higher than last year. In the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted EBITDA to increase by more than 100 basis points primarily due to the benefit from the Indian Motorcycle separation and positive net price. These benefits will be partially offset by higher commodity and logistics costs. On tariffs, we still expect to pay $215 million this year unchanged from our prior outlooks. This assumes no material change to USMCA or other tariff policies currently in place.
The Indian Motorcycle separation remains on track to be accretive by $50 million to adjusted EBITDA with the benefit weighted more toward the back half of the year and into January 2027, due to the seasonality of motorcycle sales. We are also raising full year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.50 to $3.60 from $3.00 to $3.10 This includes $1.90 from the tariff refunds recorded in the second and third quarters. Excluding tariff refunds, operational adjusted EPS is expected to be $2.40 to $2.50 compared with our July 28 guidance revision of $2.05 to $2.15 This increase reflects our strong third quarter performance and additional improvement in the underlying business relative to our July expectations.
Our guidance does not include any additional tariff refunds. While we believe there may be opportunities to recover additional amounts, a formal process for the next phase of refunds has not been established, the timing and amount of any further recovery is uncertain and certain amounts would need to be recovered from suppliers. Our full year guidance implies fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.32 to $0.42 reflecting in part the approximately $0.30 of earnings that shifted from the fourth quarter into the third quarter. We expect fourth quarter earnings to be supported by net price and the separation of Indian Motorcycle somewhat offset by higher commodity and logistics costs.
In closing, our strong third quarter results and increased full year outlook reflect the continued momentum across our business and the disciplined execution of our teams. We are delivering meaningful operational margin expansion strengthening our balance sheet and positioning the company to exit the year with net leverage below 2x. While commodity and logistics costs remain headwinds, we are confident in the underlying fundamentals of the business and the actions we are taking to drive further progress in 2027.
Michael T. Speetzen: With that, I will turn it back over to Mike. Thanks, Bob. Before wrapping up, I want to spend a few minutes on how we are thinking about 2027. While it is still early and we are not providing formal guidance today, there are several factors that give us confidence in the continued progress of the business. First, we expect to maintain the same disciplined approach to dealer inventory that served us well with production and shipments aligned closely with retail demand. At the same time, we are preparing to bring innovative new products to market across our core businesses, while continuing to capitalize on the consumer shift toward cab units.
From an operating perspective, we expect commodity costs to be a meaningful headwind given current prices on steel, diesel and aluminum in addition to logistics. But we also see continued opportunities to drive productivity operational efficiencies and expense leverage to help offset a portion of these elevated costs. Our manufacturing facilities are currently running at roughly 70% of capacity and we continue to expand lean to improve our efficiency. As volumes recover, that available capacity should provide a meaningful incremental margin opportunity. We also remain focused on executing our tariff mitigation strategy. Including meeting our targets of reducing our exposure to China by the end of 27.
Finally, we expect our improving earnings and cash flow profile to support a healthy balance sheet and we intend to manage net leverage within our 1x to 2x target range. Operating within that range gives us more flexibility to enhance our return of capital to shareholders. So while we are operating in an unsettled macroeconomic world, we believe the actions we have taken over the past several years have put Polaris in a much better position to manage through volatility and drive improved financial performance over the long term. With 1 quarter to go, our priorities remain consistent. The overall retail market has played out slightly better than we originally expected. Growth remains volatile, but utility continues to outperform.
We had originally called for the retail environment to be flat year over year, but now expect it to grow low single digits. And while uncertainty remains in the broader economy, the trends we have seen through the third week of October give us confidence that we can have a strong ending to the year. We continue to build and ship products at the same pace as retail and expect this strategy to hold true for the foreseeable future. As I noted earlier, we are shipping 3 important new products this quarter. The RZR Pro R Boost, Polaris Expedition with pneumatics and the Sportsman 500.
Early feedback from dealers and customers has been very encouraging and we believe the Pro R Boost and new Expedition can help provide a lift in recreational sales. We remain ahead of our internal targets regarding our tariff mitigation with an expected 9% of material cost of goods sold originating from China by year end. This is down from approximately 14% at the beginning of the year and our ultimate goal is to have these costs below 5% by year end 2027. Our focus and execution this year drove these results and allowed us to raise guidance for the third time. Our strategy is unchanged and our foundation is stronger.
We are a different company than we were 5 years ago. We are more focused, our manufacturing facilities are more efficient, our dealer inventory is healthy and our portfolio increased increasingly serves customers who rely on our products for work as well as play. Dealers see the change as do customers and employees and increasingly it is showing up in our results. Polaris is the leader in powersports and I am confident we have the strategy portfolio and operating foundation to deliver higher earnings power stronger returns over time. With that, turn the call over to Chad to open the line for questions.
Operator: Thank you. Will now begin our question and answer session. And the first question will be from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Joe Altobello: Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. First question, I want to kind of talk about incremental margins for next year, right? If we assume modest unit growth, let. You know, let's say, how do you see incremental margins playing out given all the, you know, puts and takes you just laid out, Mike?
Michael T. Speetzen: Yeah. So, well, first of all, good morning, Joe. The, you know, the incremental margins were pretty heavily impacted in the third quarter. There was obviously a little bit of incremental tariff cost. Third quarter of last year is when tariff cost had really ramped up for us. Third quarter really saw the impact of commodities. And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, the commodities really have ramped up. And we expect that to be a bit of a headwind as we get into next year. Now the good news is we have been making substantial improvements in the business in terms of just how efficient the factories are operating.
The team, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, have done an excellent job of, you know, pulling content out of China, pulling that supply chain back into North America primarily which is going to help from a tariff perspective. it is early for us to make a lot of comments around what we expect incremental to be going into next year, but I think we have got the business position. I mean it is a bit frustrating because the incremental tariffs, the incremental commodities, those things are eating away at the margins. And I would just remind you that ex the $215 million of tariffs, our margins would almost be 2 points higher than where they are today.
And obviously, Bob can fill in some of the blanks that I skipped over.
Robert Paul Mack: Yeah, Joe. I mean, I think the biggest thing, we will start to lap the tariffs going into next year and as of right now, we do not expect you know, dramatic changes in the overall tariff load on the company. there is, you know, some incremental, some of some of that is going to be offset by stuff we have moved out of China. So you know, absent any changes, there is still a 301 investigation out there on excess capacity. I do not think anything will happen with that till after the midterms. But, you know, once the midterms are over, I think it is pretty tough to predict where that 1 will go.
But if that does not change the picture, I think our tariff picture will be relatively flattish next year. As compared to this year. And so the bigger headwind is gonna continue to be commodities And when we say commodities, we include trucking in that because it is a big part of it right now, you know, the line haul side. Is almost as big as the diesel side with trucking shortages. So we talked about having about $50 million of headwind in the second half of 26. You know? So most of this really ramped up in the back half of the year. It was about $70 million for the full year. Some of that was offset by hedge.
So as we look at the first half of next year, think the commodity headwind is going to be in that $70 million range. And it is really tough to predict after that. The commodity curves as they sit here today, would show some improvement particularly in steel and diesel in the back half of the year. But the reality is we have watched those curves push out the last you know, few months. And so, we will just have to see how that goes. A little too early to get into that. But, certainly, in the first half of the year, I think we will see less tariff headwind, a little more commodity headwind than we did this year.
Michael T. Speetzen: And Joe, the other thing I it is obviously not related to cost, but it is a critical component. I mean, you know, think about the comments that we have made about the utility portion of our portfolio, the exposure we have If you look at things like the Dodge Momentum Index, the level of construction activity, commercial construction activity, is not anticipated to abate anytime soon and increasingly our vehicles being used more and more in that type of environment. And, you know, we have got a we have got a dealer meeting February of next year We are also gonna have an investor day in February of year, early February of next year.
And if you think about that is on the heels of a dealer meeting in August where we launched 3 incredible products. So there is more to come. And I am convinced with the new products and the exposure we have from utility standpoint the business is looking at a good environment as we head into next year despite the fact discretionary spending pressures still remain and the markets could remain under a little bit of pressure. Balance of our portfolio I think really helps out and gives us the opportunity to get more volume through the factories and drive that incremental leverage. To help address some of the increasing costs we are seeing that Bob outlined.
Robert Paul Mack: Yes, the other piece to think about is you know, we have had really good operational performance at the factories. I think the you know, what happened in Huntsville in the third quarter, you know, we had hedged our bets a little bit coming into the quarter, as we implemented a new lean line there. Know, Mike and I have both been down there The team did just a great job at coming up speed on that line. And getting to some of the highest levels of first pass yield on vehicles that we have seen. So we were able to pull a little bit more Ranger into the quarter.
We had thought we were going to be pretty tight on Ranger shipments in the quarter, and we were able to do a little better than that. But I think it shows that you know, the benefits, that we are getting from lean are real. And, you know, like we have talked about, I mean, you know, we are kind of in the World Series time. So, you know, we are we are kind of in the third inning ish of a 9 inning game, and, so there is a lot more to go. So whether we will be able to fully offset commodities know, we will have to see as we get into budgeting for the full year.
But, I expect to see continued improvement on that side also.
Joe Altobello: Very helpful. And just a follow-up and somewhat related. Promotion intensity. Is that a good guy or a bad guy next year? On margins?
Michael T. Speetzen: Well, I mean, the fact that we continue to keep dealer inventory in a good spot. Retail velocity was up again This past quarter we were up about 19%. So we are moving product faster. And I think I mean look we have done a better job of making sure that we have got the right inventory at the dealers The current non current mix is incredibly important And then quite frankly having leading innovation takes significant pressure off from a promotional perspective.
And so you know, it is early to have a perspective as we head into year, but certainly we are trying to set the business up, you know, through a combination of the innovation, the product mix as well as just overall dealer inventory levels that we are going to keep promotional pressure abated. And hopefully look to continue to drive that down as a percentage of sales. Great. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. The next question will be from James Hardiman from Citi. Please go ahead.
James Hardiman: Wanted to continue along sort of the same lines as we think about 2027. I think I have all the moving pieces right. Obviously, you know, the 3 biggest would be the commodity and freight inflation the efficiencies that you talked about and then tariffs. It sounds like tariffs are basically going to be a wash Right? The annualization is a bad guy. The, lower reliance on China is a good guy. And it is a little bit unclear which is gonna be bigger at this point. The inflation versus the efficiencies. I guess, a, is that all right? Is that all accurate? Because you just gave us a lot in the answer to the. To Joe's questions.
But then I if I just look at, the street for next year, which was assuming a lot of growth on a reported basis. And the fact that we need to be backing out sounds like about a $1.90 of tariffs I guess, do you think you will be able to grow on a reported basis next year? Obviously, I think you think you can grow on an operating basis, right, ex tariffs. But I am just trying to understand if the street ex expectation is too aggressive as we sit here today.
Robert Paul Mack: Yes. I think so, James, a couple of comments on the tariffs. I mean, I would remind you there still is a open 301 investigation around excess manufacturing. And so that is an unknown. I think net of anything happening there, we look at tariffs as kind of a push. I mean, we are we are working hard and we are confident with the work that we have got underway to get, sourcing out of China. So that will take some tariff costs out, but, you know, obviously, we were in China because the costs were less. So we are moving into areas where it is cost a little bit more.
So I think it is gonna probably be a net push when you look at just the tariff mitigation excluding whatever happens on 301 excess manufacturing. I do think the estimates are high next year and I think part of that is we know a number of analysts have not backed the IEPA refunds out. And that is obviously a big part of, the performance this year. In terms of getting the $80-plus million dollars worth of refunds in and the impact that is had on EPS.
Michael T. Speetzen: When you talk about can we grow next year from a top line standpoint, obviously, it is early to be giving guidance, but I do feel confident for the factors that I outlined, when answering Joe's questions around promo. We have got some incredible new product in the market that we launched this year. That obviously will cycle into next year. And then, you know, we have got a dealer meeting in February, so that should give you some hints that there is yet more to come. And I think that coupled with our exposure to the utility markets and specifically around some of the commercial construction activity that is going on.
I feel good about that growth trajectory. it is a bit early You know, Bob gave you some color around the commodity pressure that we are facing. what is tough for us is what is going to happen in the back half of next year from a commodity standpoint. Things could move down as quickly as they came up. A lot of that is going to really depend on what is going on in the broader macro and it is anybody's guess where we think things are at. So gonna continue doing the things that have served us well. We are gonna stay focused on everything we can control.
You know, we did not really talk much about it, but in addition to the factories operating better, our quality. We are now either amongst the top, if not the top. In power sports from a quality standpoint, and that serves us incredibly well in terms of taking warranty costs down, improving the satisfaction with customers and you couple that with all the new products and the exposure to the end markets we have, I feel good about the top line as we head into 2027.
James Hardiman: Got it. that is really helpful. And maybe a simpler question that may or may not choose to answer, but any color you can give us on sort of as we think about retail, which you know, RVs were up against a really difficult compare last year. Maybe just any color on sort of how that went over the course the quarter and then you talked about October being in line with expectations. I do not know where your expectations were, but any color there?
Obviously, we saw an interest rate hike and consumer confidence seems like it is getting worse, but it does not sound like you are seeing much of that in the numbers so far here in October. Thanks.
Michael T. Speetzen: Yes. I mean, I think about October in the low single digits, which is aligned with what we were expecting. I think third quarter was a tale of a different journey. I mean, we started out with a tough July. I think that was probably something that had been talked about more broadly, not just specific to power sports. And then we picked up momentum as the quarter went on. I think the affordability report that you put out I think, kinda sums it up. I mean, the RV space is space I think, a different set of challenges.
And then quite frankly, the fact that we have got 60% of our portfolio that is really outside of the rec exposure category. And that is not to say that people who buy a Ranger on their farm are not using it to go hunting and fishing, but the vehicle has multiple uses. And then when you index that, with the commercial construction that is going on and the number of vehicles that we have that are being bought by contractors as well as rental companies that are going into their fleets to support the work that they are doing on a range of projects, you know, I think that puts us in a little bit position.
So we are encouraged with what we have seen in October. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we are we believe we are set up to have a good strong end to the year. Really helpful. Thanks, Mike. Yep.
Operator: Thank you. The next question is from Garik Johnson from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Gerrick Johnson: Great. Thanks. Good morning. Hey, I wanted to dig into the shifts between the third and fourth quarter. How much you gave us the bottom line impact, but what was top line impact of snowmobiles ship shipping early as well as the Ranger? And then also on inventory, I would expect seasonal inventory to grow at the dealer level but on Page 5, it looks like it declined. So about the dynamics and seasonal inventory and also what inventory would be without automobile shipping early in the third quarter?
Robert Paul Mack: Yes. So Gerrick, if you think about the snow and the ranger timing from a revenue perspective, it is about split. it is you know, $30-ish million of snow and a little bit more than that of Ranger. So, you know, not massive, but, but meaningful. And, like, as we talked about, you know, that was really just performance of the factory and then the fact that we had low seasonal inventory. And the reason, you know, the reason inventory. Dealer inventory is down in the quarter is purely seasonal.
As we cleaned out, you know, a fair number of the old model year sleds, kind of earlier this year and what we saw in the quarter was some growth in Ranger, and a little bit in channel fill on the rec side. Know, Ranger because of strong sales, you know, and really inventory not growing quite as fast as the sales just because, we had deal with the new line in Huntsville, which you know, again, performed better than we expected, but still we were gonna be a little tight on Ranger in the quarter. And then with the channel fill on expedition starting to ship boost, that drove a little bit of rec growth.
We think that will that will level itself out by the time we get to the end of Q4. Okay, great.
Gerrick Johnson: So on seasonal it is the fact that you cleared out way more non currents than you shipped in currents early.
Robert Paul Mack: Leading to the Yes, definitely that and we also we have also seen snow check pickups at a greater pace than I think we were expecting. We were just with the dealer council last week and they were very appreciative of the fact that we had shipped in early. Because it allows them to spend time getting the snowmobile set up, getting them to consumers who have pre ordered, So it worked out it worked out well for us all around. I mean. And, you know, snowmobile shipping in Q3 is know, something that kind of the rest of the industry has done for a while. We have not been able to execute and do that the last few years.
And I think now we have got our Roseau facility and snow team running a lot better. And that allowed us to pull that up and deliver. Like Mike said, that was positively received by the dealers. We still had a pretty small snow build this year. Know, with an effort of trying to keep dealer inventory at the right level and really limit the amount of carryovers we have of into the new model year. So team's executing really well on that side.
Gerrick Johnson: Okay. Understood. And just lastly for me, international, seems soft even if you exclude Goupil And Axum. So Why Was That Underperforming Versus North America?
Robert Paul Mack: Yeah. I think, a lot of challenges obviously, a lot of distraction in Europe right now. So the European markets were relatively slow. And then really just a little bit of timing as we know, get dealer inventory. We are getting more sophisticated about our international dealer inventory. And market share and our ability to measure some of that. And so know, we have really been focused on taking some of what we learned on the U.S. side in terms of sales, inventory and operations planning, taking that to international and making sure we have got dealer inventory, right sized around the world. So some of that a little bit of timing impact in the quarter. Okay, great. Thanks, Bob.
Thanks, Mike. Yep. Thanks, Gary.
Operator: The next question is from Craig Kennison from Baird. Please go ahead.
Craig Kennison: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Mike, what is the latest on consumer usage trends based on Ride Command, Polaris surveys and other factors?
Michael T. Speetzen: Continues to be strong. We continue to see parts consumption, oil consumption, wheels, tires, for the vehicles that we can track riding, we are up in the kind of low to mid single digits which is encouraging and that is building on last year, which last year was critical because we saw ridership up above pre COVID levels. So people are still using the vehicles We are doing a lot of survey work to talk with consumers specifically on the rec side. there is a high level of engagement with the product. And in fact, we are seeing even some pickup in accessories, which means, you know, the people are hanging on to these things a little bit longer.
And I think a lot of it is they are waiting for the right moment to buy, and I think that has to do more with confidence in the economic backdrop as well as just the cost of living between what it costs to put gas in your vehicle not necessarily our vehicle, but your main driving vehicle as well as energy costs and groceries, etcetera, things are just expensive. And so taking on new higher payment right now which be. Which tends to be the predominant rec customer. You know, it is just not something that they are leaning in hard to. Know, the good news is we are we are putting new product out.
You know, that new ProR Boost is an incredible machine. The new x XPDition is getting incredible reviews relative to how quiet the vehicle is and the new Sportsman 500 that provides a nice value entry point. So, we are confident with all the new we have got coming out, we are going to put enough into the market that could stimulate that customer to come back in. It would be helpful to get some help from a macro perspective. But based on where things are at, I am not expecting that to be a help anytime soon. Thanks.
Craig Kennison: Do you get data on commercial usage versus consumer usage? And I am assuming commercial users are much more aggressive with your product and might have a different replacement cycle. So maybe comment on that if you would, please.
Michael T. Speetzen: it is a very different use case. You know, we are we are learning as. Especially as these vehicles are deployed on projects like data centers. What I can tell you is you know, they are they are putting an awful lot of miles on them. They are putting even more hours cause a lot of these projects are in areas that they will leave the vehicle running We have seen that show up in our parts data as, you know, alternator belts and things like that have to be replaced more frequently. You know, the vehicles are used in conditions where they are not able to be washed frequently.
I mean, it is just a whole just a whole different use case. And so, you know, the vehicles, we are watching what redeployment rates look like. That. that is when, you know, a rental fleet will be pulled back in off of 1 project and redeployed to another. We do not necessarily have a lot of great data yet on some of the new uses These vehicles tend to be out in the market 2 to 3 years. If they are salvageable, they tend to be sold for a very, very low price. And they are not a consumer oriented vehicle if you will. But most of these vehicles are not redeployed.
So lot to be learned and, you know, for us, it is just about staying focused on this commercial build out. Looks like it is gonna go on for a while and we are making sure that we have got the product that these consumers are looking for. HVAC tends to be something that has become increasingly more popular not just having heat but also having air conditioning in the vehicle. So we are working through making sure that we have got that offering as we move forward. Thank you. Bet.
Operator: And the next question will be from Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead.
Arpine Kocharyan: Hi, good morning. This is Arpine for Robin. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to go back to the big picture demand drivers for 2027. You suggested shipments should be aligned with retail as we look into next year. And it sounds like we are now looking at roughly maybe slightly better retail for this year. As you look across the consumer business, does it seem like you should see similar low single digit improvement and then maybe better shipment than that given commercial business and data center demand and defense budget that seem to be maybe not going down year over year? Anything any more color on that would be great.
Michael T. Speetzen: Yeah. I do not know that we wanna start getting into specifics around 2027. I mean, I think said an awful lot about our confidence in the products we have We have got dealer inventory shipments and build aligned this year. So as we head into next year, I do not necessarily see that being a tailwind like it was this year. I think our top line growth will probably be more reflective of what we ultimately see happening from a broader retail as well as what ultimately happens in the commercial construction.
The Dodge Momentum Index is a good gauge of what is expected in the commercial markets. it is not a 1 for 1 by any stretch, but it certainly looks encouraging, but we will have more say in January when we provide our official guidance on 2027.
Arpine Kocharyan: Okay, thanks. And it seems like adjusted for tariff refunds, for base year this year, you should be able to keep margin flattish to better year over year next year? Is that if you were to sort of dial down what you were trying to say earlier on margin for 2027, is that a correct conclusion?
Robert Paul Mack: I think tariffs will be generally flat year over year unless there is a new 301 tariff, which we certainly do not know in hard to anticipate what that could look like. I think going into the year, we are going to have operational efficiencies as a as a tailwind and commodities as a headwind. it is pretty difficult to say with full year commodities looks like right now sitting here in October. So I do not think we are giving a forecast on you know, what margins will look like next year. I. We have given the data we are gonna give in terms of the puts and takes, and then we will update January once we get closer.
To the year. Okay. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. And the next question will be from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Noah Zatzkin: Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I guess first, I think you noted $0.30 of pull forward into 3Q from 4Q. But you did raise full year operational EPS guidance by $0.35 at the midpoint. And I think you raised full year sales guidance $175 million So is the driver of those increases really the low single digit retail versus flat prior or is there kind of other dynamics there?
Robert Paul Mack: Okay. Yeah. Yeah, and it really is just the strength in utility. So we. You know, $0.15 of the Q3 beat lives through and then $0.20 in the fourth quarter. And it is largely driven by the strength we have seen in utility. The rec side is continuing to be a headwind relative to what we-- are in line with what we expected, but on a year over year basis.
Noah Zatzkin: that is helpful. And then I think, you know, some of the tariff noise maybe makes it a bit hard to discern the magnitude of operational efficiencies and the results. So wondering if you could help quantify or maybe provide some color around the structural benefits this year and how you are thinking about the remaining opportunity there? Thanks.
Michael T. Speetzen: Well, I mean, just think about the fact that our margins would be almost 2 points higher than where they are today. We did not have tariffs sitting in there. And so it is a meaningful impact. And even the commodities are a pretty substantial drag right now. And we are not seeing necessarily the benefit from a foreign exchange perspective. There is some benefit, but not anywhere near magnitude of what we are dealing with commodities. And look, we could sit here and, you know, adjust those out feel great about our results all day long, but the reality is they are here and we are dealing with them.
So you know, Bob mentioned it, you know, the work we have done in Huntsville, the work we are doing in Monterey, you know, we are transitioning engines out of Wisconsin both to Osceola and down to Mexico. That work is going well. You know, the focus that the team has around making sure that we have got pass yield coming out of our factories. it is not to say we do not have issues come up, but the level of performance is like I have never seen come out of this company before. And so we are gonna keep working that because we can control those far better than I can do anything about commodities.
Bob and his team do what they can to hedge but that only ultimately dampens the volatility. You ultimately end up getting caught up eventually with what is going on in the current markets. And unless we see some sort of resolution that drives oil down, I do not expect that change anytime soon, which is further to the comments Bob made around the first half headwinds that we think we have.
But we are going to keep working all the operational activity and, you know, I think the sheer fact that we have pulled China content down from 14% down to 9% and we are on a glide path be below 5% within a 2 year time period speaks to the capability we have developed inside the company from a supply chain standpoint. So our teams are working hard and we are going to do everything we can to get the cost out.
Operator: Thank you. The next question will be from Molly Baum from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Molly Baum: Hi, thanks for taking our questions. The first 1 I wanted to ask is just on the competitive landscape. You have now seen 6 straight quarters of share gains. But are you seeing or would you call it any notable changes in the competitive landscape heading into 2027, whether it is from a pricing standpoint? Or are you seeing competitors push further into value or commercial where you have been seeing a lot of success? Thanks.
Michael T. Speetzen: I would not say we have seen any huge shifts. You know, I think the there is a lot more responsible acting today than there was, say, a couple of years ago. You know, we do not see the massive discounting and I mean, there is still some of that activity going on. But we and the number 2 player in the industry who make up between the 2 of us 60%, both have inventory in a good spot and I think we are hearing the dealers play back to us that is putting pressure on the others to do the same. But really, we have not seen anything from a promo standpoint.
Know, I do think you are seeing a lot of competitors follow the steps we are making from a product standpoint. And we are just going to continue to lead. that is what we do as the leader in powersports and leaves the field wide open for us to drive new product development.
Molly Baum: Got it. that is helpful. And you know, off of that, and I do not want to front run the Investor Day too much, but where would you say you are prioritizing innovation from a new product standpoint over the next few years? Is it more on the value side, the commercial side? I know you mentioned cab units as well. Or is it kind of across the board?
Michael T. Speetzen: Yes. Well, I mean, we, we will talk obviously more at the investor day. But I mean, we. We have really honed our focus as a company over the past several years, and we have got cycles within the business But yeah, we have some really. We have some cool stuff coming. We are excited and looking forward to February. Got it.
Molly Baum: We are as well. Thanks so much.
Operator: Thank you. And the next question is from Andrew Didora from BOA. Please go ahead.
Analyst: Hi, good morning everyone. I guess Mike, a lot of questions on 27 margins at this point. But I guess, when we think of take a step back and think about kind of medium term margin potential and like kind of a current you know, state of tariff world, how do you think about the margin potential of the business? And then, again, to maybe to set the 20 baseline, because I think there are a lot of moving parts in terms of sale of Indian tariff refunds TSAs, etcetera. Are normalized EBITDA margins this year closer to 7.5% and that is what we should base our 27 estimates on or you thinking about that differently? Thanks.
Michael T. Speetzen: Yeah. I mean, look. We are. I do not wanna start trying to throw numbers out. We got a lot of math to go work on and do. We are going to end this year at about 8.5% EBITDA. And, you know, if you were to factor out the tariffs both the AIPA refunds as well as the ongoing tariffs we are dealing with. I mean, EBITDA margins are up around 10% operationally, organically, if you will. So we are certainly on a good path. Relative to the mid cycle targets. You know, the tariff headwind is a bit frustrating.
We are we are doing everything we can to work through it. that is obviously gonna delay things a little bit as we work through, you know, resourcing to get the tariff load down as well as then value engineer to get the incremental cost from the new supplier out But we feel good. You know, I mentioned it that we are working hard. We think with the setup of the business is good for the mid cycle targets.
And then, obviously, when we are with everybody in February, we will provide a little bit more context 1 of the things that know, Bob and I wanna make sure we do is walk analysts through how we get from where we are today up into that, you know, mid teens EBITDA range, and the series of things that need to occur for us to get there and the confidence level we have around that. We will have more share when we get to that February meeting.
Robert Paul Mack: Yeah. I mean, you know, to Mike's point, we certainly have an ongoing tariff headwind. Hopefully, that is stable for next year. Although we certainly do not control that. Know, but we are controlling what we can, moving stuff out of China, you know, also there is there is things that have to move out of Southeast Asia. As that is the kind of the next highest level of tariffs. So we continue to focus on that. You know, the other piece you know, so that stuff happens. We have gotta work the cost down. I mean, a reason everybody was buying stuff in China. It was cheaper.
So, you know, you do not get as much of an immediate benefit of. From the tariff relief as you would expect because some of it is offset with higher cost. It just takes some time to work those costs down, but the positive thing, and if you think about it going further into the future, anything we are designing today and we have such a high degree of innovation, you know, we are designing it with those new suppliers from the start.
So, you know, as new products continue to roll out over the next few years, you will have less of that impact of stuff moving from 1 supplier to a new supplier have started it with a North American supplier. So feel like that is gonna give us some tailwind as we as we get further out, but that stuff takes some time. So, you know, I think overall positioned well. I think, you know, as Mike said, we will be kind of at an 8.5-ish range for the full year, and I think that is a good place to build from. Got it. Helpful color. I will leave it there. Thanks. Thanks.
Operator: And the next question is from Anthony Bonadio from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Anthony Bonadio: Yes. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Just on commodities real quick, I know there is a lot of uncertainty, but just thinking about 2027 that seems like a key variable. Can you just talk about the timing of hedging And I guess if things were to improve, how much is locked in versus how much you benefit? And just vice versa if things remain challenged.
Robert Paul Mack: Yeah. I mean, we typically try to be about 50% hedged as we go into the year We are not there yet And obviously, we are looking at what the commodity curves look like and we will make those decisions as we see that unravel through the fourth quarter, and into the early part of next year. You know, it is not a hard fast rule. We try to look at what the what the market's telling us is gonna happen. it is just right now, it is just difficult. Look at the steel curves and the diesel curves, and they start to look better in the second half of last year.
But you know, they have pushed quite a bit over the last couple months. And so you know, we will continue to pay attention to that and see how that looks and that will drive how deeply we decide to hedge. But, you know, it is the opportunity if we see decreases in commodities is really gonna be more in the back half of the year you think about the first half of the year. You know, between the hedges that are in place and the fact that we are already buying inventory that will roll through COGS next year. Your opportunity to impact the first half starts to really decrease as you get into the end of this year.
Anthony Bonadio: Alright. I will leave it there. Thanks, guys.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question and answer session and thus concludes today's call. We thank you for joining Polaris' third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, you may now disconnect your lines. Take care.
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