Not Oklo. Not NuScale. This Nuclear Stock Is Going to Be the Biggest Winner of the AI Power Boom.

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Oklo and Nuscale are both speculative bets on small nuclear reactors.

  • Investors should consider buying Vistra as a safer power play on the AI market.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Vistra ›

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) and NuScale (NYSE: SMR) both attract significant attention as speculative bets on the surging demand for nuclear energy from the cloud and AI markets. Oklo's microreactors and NuScale's SMRs are both much smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, and they can be deployed in a modular manner in remote and off-grid areas.

However, Oklo doesn't expect to generate any meaningful revenue until it deploys its first reactors in 2027. NuScale generates some lumpy research revenues, but it doesn't expect its first commercial SMRs to come online until the early 2030s.

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An illustration of an atom.

Image source: Getty Images.

With a market cap of $6.7 billion, Oklo is already valued at 127 times its 2028 sales. NuScale, which is valued at $3.5 billion, trades at 14 times its 2028 sales. Therefore, any delays or market downturns could easily compress those valuations and cause both stocks to crash.

So instead of investing in Oklo or NuScale in this wobbly market, it might be smarter to invest in Vistra (NYSE: VST) -- the diversified power generation and retail electricity giant that also provides plenty of exposure to the nuclear energy and AI markets. Let's see why Vistra's stock -- which more than quadrupled over the past three years -- still has room to run.

How is Vistra exposed to the nuclear and AI markets?

Vistra owns a wide range of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. It sells electricity to roughly five million customers through its regional subsidiaries, which include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, Ambit, and other utilities. With a capacity of 44 GW, it generates enough electricity to power more than 22 million homes.

Nuclear power accounts for 15% of Vistra's installed capacity and approximately 24% of its total power generation. Its 2024 acquisition of Energy Harbor increased the total capacity of its nuclear fleet to 6.4 GW, including major plants in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nuclear power accounts for 20% of all data center power consumption in the United States. Another 40% comes from natural gas, followed by renewables (24%) and coal (15%).

Natural gas accounts for about 62% of Vistra's capacity and 24% of its power generation. So instead of being a pure-play on next-gen nuclear technologies like Oklo and NuScale, Vistra is already providing plenty of nuclear energy and natural gas to cloud and AI data centers.

Vistra can also rely on coal, which accounts for around a fifth of its total capacity and energy generation, to pick up the slack as data centers gradually shift toward cleaner solutions. Renewables account for only a low single-digit sliver of its capacity and generation, but that business should flourish as more data centers adopt its solar and battery storage solutions.

Why is Vistra a better long-term play on the AI power boom?

Unlike Oklo and NuScale, which will remain unprofitable for the foreseeable future, Vistra has remained firmly profitable by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) over the past three years. It also generates billions of dollars in annual revenue.

Vistra faced two major challenges over the past year. First, a series of fires forced it to permanently close a large portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facilities in 2025. Second, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved PJM Interconnection's request to extend its capacity auction price collar (which caps electricity capacity prices) through 2030. That decision will limit Vistra's pricing power across the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest.

But from 2025 to 2028, analysts still expect Vistra's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 13% and 75%, respectively. Over the past 12 months, its stock has declined more than 30% -- but it now looks like a screaming bargain at less than 16 times this year's earnings. So if you're looking for a simple way to profit from the AI power boom, Vistra deserves a closer look.








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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vistra. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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