Qualcomm Stock Forecast: Can QCOM Hit $200 After Amazon AI Chip Partnership?

TradingKey - Qualcomm (QCOM) is accelerating its entry into the AI data center market, and its latest partnership with Amazon (AMZN) could mark an important step in this strategic transition.

On September 8, Qualcomm announced a multi-year, multi-generation product partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS), under which the two companies will jointly develop custom chips for large AI data centers and further advance high-speed optical interconnect technology.

The most noteworthy aspect of this partnership is that Amazon is not merely becoming a standard customer of Qualcomm. According to an 8-K filing submitted by Qualcomm to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, an Amazon affiliate obtained warrants to purchase up to 25 million shares of Qualcomm common stock at an exercise price of $161.26 per share, with an expiration date of September 3, 2036. Based on full exercise, the corresponding total value is approximately $4.03 billion.

This is also a key point that investors should focus on: what the market values is not the warrants themselves, but Amazon's willingness to tie its long-term procurement plans to Qualcomm's data center products.

Qualcomm Partners With Amazon As AI Inference Becomes Breakthrough

Unlike Nvidia, which primarily relies on GPUs to build AI computing platforms, Qualcomm has chosen to enter the market through custom chips, with a key focus on AI inference.

Inference refers to the process where an AI model processes user requests and generates results in practical applications after completing its training. As generative AI gradually shifts from model training to large-scale commercial deployment, the importance of inference workloads is rising rapidly, prompting hyperscale cloud providers to seek more efficient and cost-effective computing solutions.

Qualcomm will co-develop multiple generations of custom chips with AWS to provide compute power for Amazon's AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, the two companies will also collaborate on data center optical interconnect products supporting speeds of up to 1.6 Tbps to meet the growing data transmission demands between AI servers.

This means that Qualcomm is not merely selling a chip to data centers, but aims to enter both the compute and connectivity segments simultaneously.

For AWS, custom chips can help optimize for its own AI workloads and reduce reliance on general-purpose chips; for Qualcomm, this provides a tangible commercial entry point to expand from smartphone chips into the data center market.

Qualcomm Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala stated that the company expects to begin generating revenue from this partnership as early as the quarter ending this December. Meanwhile, he emphasized that the project is a crucial component of Qualcomm's goal to achieve $15 billion in data center revenue by fiscal year 2029.

Qualcomm management previously expressed strong confidence in reaching $5 billion in data center revenue by fiscal year 2027. If the Amazon project smoothly enters mass production, the likelihood of achieving this target will increase further.

Qualcomm No Longer Bets Only on Smartphones

Qualcomm is best known as a supplier of smartphone processors, but the company is attempting to break away from its dependence on the mobile phone business.

In June this year, Qualcomm launched its Dragonwing series of data center CPUs and announced that Meta plans to adopt the solution once the relevant products go into production. Meanwhile, the company is also collaborating with Saudi Arabia's Humain to develop AI accelerators while continuing to advance other data center products.

From a product strategy perspective, Qualcomm is shaping an AI infrastructure strategy that differs from traditional chipmakers: developing server CPUs on one hand, penetrating the AI accelerator space on the other, and expanding its product portfolio through custom chips and high-speed connectivity technologies.

This also means that the markets Qualcomm competes for in the future will no longer be limited to mobile phones and automobiles, but will extend further into the world's largest cloud computing and AI infrastructure markets.

The growth potential in this market is substantial. Bank of America projects that the global data center CPU market size could expand from approximately $27 billion in 2025 to over $60 billion by 2030. As AI workloads continue to grow, the division of labor among CPUs, GPUs, and custom accelerators is also being realigned.

Meanwhile, major tech companies such as Meta and Amazon continue to increase their AI infrastructure investments. One of the most significant implications of Qualcomm securing this AWS deal is proving that hyperscalers are willing to entrust core AI computing tasks to a new vendor.

Even more noteworthy, Qualcomm's CFO revealed that the company has another hyperscale cloud provider partner that has not been officially announced, with a collaboration model similar to the Amazon project. If this partnership is further disclosed in the future, it may further bolster market expectations for Qualcomm's data center business growth.

Qualcomm Stock Technical Analysis: Can QCOM Hit $200?

Source: TradingView

On the 8th, QCOM rose 3.17% to close at $174.09, with trading volume rising to approximately 26.13 million shares. The stock price has broken above the downtrend line extending from the peak of $259.89 and climbed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $170.52, indicating that the downward trend persisting over the past few months is beginning to improve.

However, after touching a high of $183.49 that day, the stock pulled back significantly and closed below the 60-day moving average of $175.89, forming a high-and-retreat pattern that reflects strong selling pressure in the $175 to $183 range. Meanwhile, the 20-day moving average at $164.62 remains below the 60-day moving average, signaling that the medium-term trend has not yet completed a reversal.

In terms of momentum, the 14-day RSI rose to 58.92, exceeding the signal line at 49.23 and the 50 centerline, indicating that buying power is strengthening. Furthermore, it has not yet entered overbought territory, leaving room for further upside.

To the upside, attention should first be paid to the resistance zone between $175.89 and $183.49. If QCOM can close above $183.50 on heavy volume, the next target could be $190, followed by the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $201.40. Only after breaking through the $200 to $201 range can the stock be expected to further challenge $215.20.

To the downside, the primary support is located at $170.52. As long as the stock price stays above this level, the rebound structure following the downtrend line break remains intact. If it falls below $170, it may pull back to test the 20-day moving average at $164.62. If $164 is also broken on heavy volume, downside risk will point back toward $155 and the previous low of $142.91.