History Says the Stock Market Has a 95% Chance of Gains Over the Next Year: 3 Top Index ETFs to Buy Before November

September is widely considered the most volatile month for stocks and generally one of the worst-performing months. Midterm election years only tend to add to that volatility.

However, stocks historically perform very well in the 12 months following a midterm election. In fact, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has risen 95% of the time in the year following mid-term elections since 1938. And since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average return of 14.5% from November through November of the following year, according to research from Fidelity.

There aren't many sure things when it comes to investing, but buying stocks right before going into a mid-term election or shortly afterward has been as sure a bet as one can make historically. Against that backdrop, let's look at three index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to buy right ahead of the mid-term elections.

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1. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

The S&P 500 is the benchmark index for the U.S. stock market, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is one of the best ways for investors to mimic its performance. The fund has a minuscule expense ratio of 0.03% and is the largest and most liquid ETF tracking the index.

If you only want to invest in one ETF, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF would be my first choice. It gives you an instant portfolio of 500 of the largest companies spread across industries and has a strong track record. In fact, only about 14% of actively managed large-cap U.S. funds have outperformed VOO over the past decade.

The fund has produced an average yearly return of 15.3% over the past 10 years, and 21% over the past three years.

2. The Vanguard Growth ETF

While 2026 has seen value stocks lead the way, growth stocks have outperformed for most of the past decade. One great way to play this trend is by investing in the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VUG). The ETF essentially tracks the growth side of the S&P 500 and is heavily weighted toward the tech sector. Currently, nearly 70% of the fund's portfolio is invested in tech stocks, with another 14% in consumer discretionary stocks.

The ETF has been a great performer over the years. It has generated a 17.8% average annual return over the past 10 years, while it's been even better over the past three, up nearly 23% on average.

If growth and tech stocks continue to lead the way over the next decade, the Vanguard Growth ETF will be a top performer.

3. The Invesco QQQ Trust

Another great growth-oriented index ETF is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). The fund tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Exchange.

Similar to the Vanguard Growth ETF, the Invesco QQQ Trust is very heavily weighted toward tech stocks. About two-thirds of its holdings are in the tech sector, and its 10 largest holdings are all from the sector. One notable top stock in the Invesco QQQ Trust that is not in the Vanguard Growth Index is Micron Technology, which is its fourth-largest position at 5% of its portfolio. Drugmaker Eli Lilly, at a 2.7% weighting, is the largest stock in the Vanguard Growth ETF that is not in the Invesco QQQ Trust.

The fund has been a great performer over the years, with a 21% annual return over the last decade and a 24.8% return over the past three years. Impressively, its outperformance has been consistent and not relied on a few big years. As of the end of June, it has beaten the S&P 500 over a 12-month rolling basis 88.5% of the time over the past 10 years. That's a track record that's hard to beat.

Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Invesco QQQ Trust and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly, Micron Technology, Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.