Prediction: Micron's Sept. 30 Earnings Could Be the Most Important Catalyst for AI Memory Stocks This Year

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) will report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30, and many tech investors will be watching closely, as Micron is a leading memory supplier with 24% of the DRAM market and 15% of the NAND market.

If Micron is doing well, it's likely that other memory companies, like Sandisk, will continue to benefit from the booming memory market too.

Here's what Wall Street expects from Micron in the current quarter, how it'll be a catalyst for Sandisk and other memory stocks, and how investors should think about the current memory boom.

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Wall Street analysts forecast a blockbuster quarter

Analysts and Micron's management are expecting impressive results in the fourth quarter, with average revenue estimates of about $50.8 billion (compared to management's guidance of around $50 billion), representing a 350% increase from Micron's year-ago sales.

Earnings growth is expected to be even more impressive. Wall Street's consensus estimate is for non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings of $31.28 per share -- a massive 932% increase from the fourth quarter of 2025 -- and on par with Micron's management's earnings guidance.

The artificial intelligence data center boom is fueling this growth. Tech companies are spending an estimated $750 billion on AI infrastructure this year, and estimates for next year have already surpassed $1 trillion.

Not all that money goes to memory processors, but some does, and tech companies can't get enough of the critical memory chips that enable AI computing. The rush to buy as much memory as possible has led to a shortage of memory processors. And that shortage has allowed Micron and Sandisk to raise their prices and send their margins soaring.

Micron's non-GAAP gross margins were 84.9% in the third quarter, an astonishing jump from just 39% in the year-ago quarter. And Sandisk's are up to nearly 85%.

But what's even more impressive is that management estimates they will increase further in the fourth quarter to 86%. Not only is this great news for Micron, but it's also a strong indicator for fellow memory companies that the insatiable demand for memory processors is not yet over.

And that's the catalyst for memory stocks. If Micron's earnings continue to rise rapidly and its margins expand, it means the memory boom is alive and well, and Sandisk and other Micron peers will likely benefit from the growth too.

It's not too late to buy memory stocks

Micron's shares are up 724% over the past year, and Sandisk's jumped more than 2,900%. With those returns, it's easy to assume that these memory stocks are overpriced and it's too late to buy them.

But consider that Micron's trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just 21 and Sandisk's is only 20, compared to the tech sector average P/E ratio of 32. Using this metric, these stocks are still a very good deal.

If there's one word of caution I'd give, it's that at some point, the memory shortage will ease, and Micron's and Sandisk's margins will likely come down, at least a little. When that happens, some investors will panic and think the good times are over.

But investors with a good long-term perspective would be wise to ride out some of that volatility whenever it comes. First, even if margins decline slightly from their unprecedented levels, Micron and its peers will likely still enjoy very high profitability. Secondly, even if the data center boom slows, many in the tech industry anticipate that another wave of memory demand -- this time from robotics -- isn't far behind.

Consider what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last year:

Everything that moves will be robotic someday, and it will be soon... And every car is going to be robotic. Humanoid robots, the technology necessary to make it possible, is just around the corner.

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra says humanoid robots require 10 times the memory of current advanced driver assistance systems in many new vehicles. In short, as robotics and more autonomous systems take shape, memory will be central to it all.

All of this means that even as the catalysts propelling memory stocks shift, there doesn't appear to be a shortage of long-term opportunities for Micron and its peers.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.