Goldman Sachs Warns $120 Oil Is Back on the Table. Time to Buy Plug Power Stock?

The past year has been a wild ride for oil prices.

Oil prices last September hovered around $60 per barrel. They would remain at roughly that level for the next six months.

This March, however, prices began to climb sharply amid rising geopolitical tensions. In April, prices surged well above $100 per barrel, only to fall back toward $60 in July.

Today, oil prices are back above $90 per barrel. And according to a new report from Goldman Sachs, $120-per-barrel oil could be just around the corner.

If oil prices climb that high, investors would be wise to search for promising oil stocks. There is, however, another way to bet on rising oil prices: buy hydrogen fuel stocks.

Hydrogen fuel is a potential substitute for fossil fuels in a wide variety of applications, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation, steelmaking, chemicals production, and cement making. When fossil fuel prices rise, switching to an alternative fuel source like hydrogen can become more attractive.

One of the more popular hydrogen fuel companies right now is Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG). Plug Power is already experiencing impressive revenue growth. Higher oil prices could provide even more sales growth momentum.

But before you jump in, there are two things investors must understand.

1. Goldman Sachs hasn't been the best oil price prognosticator

Swings in oil prices today are largely a matter of geopolitical tensions. The active war between the U.S. and Iran started on Feb. 28. This is the primary reason oil prices began to move higher in March.

At the time, Goldman Sachs was guiding for higher oil prices. The bank expected "21 days of low Strait of Hormuz oil flows at 10% of normal levels, followed by 30 days of gradual recovery." Goldman predicted $98 per barrel oil in early 2026, with prices falling to $71 per barrel by the end of the year.

Now, Goldman is reversing its previous end-of-year price prediction.

"In a span of just three months, Goldman Sachs analysts have gone from lowering their oil-price forecasts to hiking them," observes a report from MarketWatch. "The reduction came after the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, but now, with no sign of a let-up in Strait of Hormuz hostilities, commodities research head Daan Struyven is obliged to reverse direction and lift his price assumptions."

While informed, investors should remember that predictions from Goldman Sachs -- or any other bank for that matter -- should not be taken as guaranteed.

Image source: Getty Images

2. Switching to hydrogen fuel isn't straightforward

Plug Power is expected to grow revenue by 15% this year, with another 18% growth expected in 2027. Higher sales are the result of the sale of more hydrogen fuel systems, as well as higher hydrogen fuel itself to a larger installed base of users.

Higher oil prices should help hydrogen become a more economic fuel source. But here's the problem: pricing for other alternative fuel sources like wind and solar continue to drop as well. So while potential customers will be more likely to pursue alternative fuel sources during a higher-for-longer oil pricing environment, hydrogen is far from their only option.

Additionally, the production of hydrogen fuel often involves the use of fossil fuels. According to a recent industry report, more than 90% of hydrogen projects in the U.S. rely on fossil fuels for hydrogen production. In short, higher oil prices cuts both ways. The end result for Plug Power stock is far from straightforward.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.