Social Security's Trump Bump-Led 2027 COLA Should Have Its First Silver Lining Since 2023, but There's a Steep Price to Pay for This Victory

For the nearly 55 million retired workers who took home a Social Security benefit in July, there are few, if any, announcements more anticipated than the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) reveal in October. A quarter-century of Gallup surveys shows that 80% to 90% of retirees rely on their Social Security income, in some capacity, to make ends meet.

Social Security's COLA is essentially a "raise" given to beneficiaries annually to offset the effects of inflation. For instance, if a broad basket of goods and services regularly purchased by seniors increases in cost by 2% from the previous year, Social Security benefits would need to rise by the same percentage to avoid a loss of buying power.

Social Security's 2027 COLA is setting up as something of a good news/bad news event. While tens of millions of retirees should enjoy their first silver lining since 2023, courtesy of a "Trump bump," there's a potentially steep price to pay for these individuals and Social Security as a whole.

President Trump's policies are having diverging impacts on Social Security. Image source: Official White House Photo by Molly Riley.

A historic Trump bump should lead to a rare victory for tens of millions of retirees in 2027

The concept of a Trump bump -- a boost in benefits caused by one (or more) of President Donald Trump's policies -- is nothing new to Social Security beneficiaries. While a modest level of inflation is perfectly normal in an expanding economy, Trump's tariff and trade policy gave the prevailing inflation rate a boost last year.

In early April 2025, the president unveiled his Liberation Day tariffs, consisting of sweeping global tariffs and higher reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries. Even though the U.S. Supreme Court struck down these tariffs in February 2026, the lift they provided on consumer prices last year translated into a modestly higher COLA for Social Security recipients in 2026.

Two of Trump's policies will contribute to a second consecutive year with a Trump bump in 2027.

BREAKING: US July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, hits 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%.

Core PCE inflation was 3.3%, the second highest reading since October 2024.

US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed's 2.0% target.

Own assets or be left…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 26, 2026

For starters, the Trump administration reimposed sweeping tariffs on more than 80 countries in July. Adding duties to unfinished imported goods can increase domestic manufacturing costs, which are then passed on to consumers. In other words, tariffs are leading to modestly higher consumer prices and should bump up next year's Social Security raise.

The other policy contributing to Social Security's 2027 Trump bump is the Iran war. Shortly after the president approved military attacks on Iran, the latter shut down the Strait of Hormuz to virtually all commercial vessels. This action sent fuel prices soaring. More recently, we've witnessed evidence that Iran-war-driven inflation has reached the broader economy.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, estimates Social Security's 2027 COLA will be 3.6%. Meanwhile, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson anticipates a Social Security raise of 3.4% for the upcoming year.

The average of these two estimates, 3.5%, is particularly significant for the tens of millions of beneficiaries currently enrolled in traditional Medicare.

BREAKING: 71 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2026. The average annual increase over the last decade: 3.1%.https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/pgqtPLgqMB

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2025

Since the start of this century, it's been commonplace for Medicare's monthly Part B premium -- Part B is the segment of traditional Medicare responsible for outpatient services -- to rise at a considerably faster pace than Social Security's COLA. For instance, while Social Security benefits grew by 3.2% (2024), 2.5% (2025), and 2.8% (2026), Medicare's monthly Part B premium jumped by 5.9% (2024), 5.9% (2025), and 9.7% (2026), respectively.

This dynamic of a larger percentage increase in the monthly Part B premium relative to Social Security's COLA means beneficiaries are losing some or all of their annual Social Security raise.

Next year should be different. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report predicts the standard Part B premium will climb by a modest 3.25% to $209.50/month. For the first time since 2023, Social Security's COLA is estimated to be higher (on a percentage basis) than the projected increase in Part B. This silver lining should allow tens of millions of retirees to retain more of next year's cost-of-living adjustment.

Image source: Getty Images.

Social Security's rare silver lining comes at a steep cost to the program

Unfortunately, this expected victory comes at a potentially steep cost to Social Security and its current/future beneficiaries.

The primary reason Social Security's 2027 COLA is projected to come in higher than the estimated Part B premium increase is President Trump's aforementioned policies. In short, this is all due to a second consecutive year with a Trump bump. While a beefier monthly benefit is something most recipients will enjoy, it's terrible news for America's leading retirement program.

For four decades, the annually published Social Security Board of Trustees Report has warned of a long-term (75-year) unfunded obligation for the program. In plain English, income collected in the 75 years following the publishing of an annual report is expected to be insufficient to cover outlays.

But what's far more concerning is the impending depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund's (OASI) asset reserves -- i.e., the excess income collected since inception that's been invested in special-issue, interest-bearing government bonds, as the law requires.

US Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund Assets at End of Year data by YCharts

The OASI is forecast to exhaust its asset reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. Although the OASI doesn't need a penny in its asset reserves to continue making monthly payments to retired workers and survivor beneficiaries, the depletion of these reserves would necessitate sweeping benefit cuts estimated at 22%.

The Trustees Report models relatively modest Social Security raises into its short- and long-term forecasts. A projected Trump bump of 3.5% is well above average and would represent a tie for the seventh-largest percentage increase since 1992.

While tens of millions of Social Security recipients are set to benefit from a rare silver lining in 2027, the entire program could suffer from the OASI's asset reserves being drained even faster by an outsize Social Security raise. A second consecutive year with a Trump bump can shorten the timeline to sweeping benefit cuts.

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