Cerebras Has a $25.4 Billion Backlog, and One OpenAI Agreement Is Behind Much of It

By most measures, Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS) delivered an outstanding second quarter.

The artificial intelligence (AI) computing specialist grew its non-GAAP (adjusted) revenue 103% year over year to $209.9 million. Its inference cloud business nearly quadrupled, and management raised its full-year outlook to a range of $880 million to $890 million in adjusted revenue.

But the most important number in the mid-August update wasn't on the income statement at all. Cerebras ended June with $25.4 billion in remaining performance obligations, the backlog of contracted work it hasn't yet delivered or recognized as revenue. That's nearly 29 times the revenue management expects for all of 2026, a figure lifted by data center costs passed through to OpenAI.

A figure that large deserves scrutiny. The company's own filings say where to look: at a single agreement with OpenAI.

Image source: Getty Images.

The backlog arrived almost all at once

In December 2025, Cerebras signed a master relationship agreement with the ChatGPT maker under which OpenAI committed to purchase 750 megawatts of computing capacity for AI inference -- a deal Cerebras has valued at more than $20 billion. OpenAI also holds an option to buy an additional 1.25 gigawatts of capacity by the end of 2030.

Remaining performance obligations were $24.6 billion at the close of 2025, then edged up to $25.0 billion in March and $25.4 billion in June. The balance grew only about 3% over the first half of 2026. Nearly all of it was on the books before 2026 began. And Cerebras says in its latest quarterly filing that a significant amount of the balance is attributable to its obligations under the OpenAI agreement.

Cerebras recognized $56.8 million of revenue under the arrangement in the second quarter, or about 32% of the company's $180.1 million in revenue under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which grew 74% year over year.

When does the backlog become revenue?

The backlog converts slowly, by design. Cerebras expects to recognize only about 22% of the $25.4 billion (about $5.6 billion) over the 24 months ending June 30, 2028.

Another 43% should arrive between months 25 and 48, with the rest coming later. Of course, the timing can shift at the customer's request.

It's worth noting, though, that the near-term share has moved up. At the close of 2025, Cerebras expected about 15% of the balance to convert in the 24 months through 2027. The latest figure is 22%, though it covers a window ending six months later.

The conversion takes years partly because Cerebras is still building the thing it has sold. Capacity for OpenAI deploys in stages from 2026 through 2028. Cerebras says more than 600 megawatts of data center capacity is live or under contract for delivery by the end of 2027, with manufacturing capacity set to grow more than tenfold in 2026. And just this week, Cerebras announced a new 165-megawatt data center in Finland.

OpenAI is even helping to finance the build-out, advancing Cerebras a $1 billion working capital loan in January.

Concentration isn't new here

In 2025, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence accounted for 62% of the company's revenue, and Group 42 accounted for another 24%. Those figures are shares of last year's revenue, not of the backlog.

But the pattern held in the second quarter, when three customers each accounted for at least 10% of revenue, or 76% of it between them. The company doesn't say exactly how much of the $25.4 billion sits with OpenAI. Either way, a short list of buyers is doing most of the buying.

That matters because of the stock's valuation. With shares around $215 as of this writing (down about 44% from their 52-week high of $386.34), the whole company is valued near $51 billion -- nearly 58 times the adjusted revenue management expects this year, for a company still posting operating losses. Even if revenue more than triples in 2027, as management plans, the stock would trade at about 19 times those expected sales.

What, then, is the backlog worth to a shareholder? A lot, I think -- just not everything the headline number implies.

The $25.4 billion includes a customer's multiyear commitment, not revenue in hand. And most of it is scheduled to convert after mid-2028, by a company that must build enormous capacity on time, much of it for one buyer whose needs could change.

The business itself is executing well. Adjusted gross margin improved about nine percentage points from a year ago, and Cerebras holds about $8.6 billion in cash and investments after May's initial public offering.

Ultimately, the backlog is evidence of extraordinary demand and arguably the best reason to keep watching Cerebras closely. But I'd want to see the OpenAI revenue step up for a few more quarters before paying today's price.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.