What Move Will SpaceX Stock Make After Sept. 9? The Evidence Is Piling Up, and Here’s What It Shows.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) has been one of the most exciting stock market stories of the year. For good reason. The company, better known as SpaceX, completed the biggest initial public offering ever and launched with a trillion-dollar market value -- to put this into perspective, well-established tech giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft took years as publicly traded companies to reach such valuations.

The stock priced at $135, opened at $150 on June 12, and closed above $200 just a few days later. However, in the weeks to follow, SpaceX traded close to its IPO price and even fell below it. Today, it trades at about $140.

Investors have looked to specific events such as entry into the Nasdaq-100 in July, the company's first earnings report in August, and the expiration of share lockups as triggers for stock price movement. And now, we're days away from the next potential catalyst. What move will SpaceX stock make after Sept. 9? The evidence is piling up, and here's what it shows.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why investors are watching SpaceX

Before we consider the stock price, though, let's take a closer look at why investors have focused on SpaceX. As mentioned, the sheer size of the company's operation -- raising more than $85 billion in the IPO and after underwriters exercised an overallotment option -- helped it stand out.

But, even before this point, SpaceX has intrigued investors for a couple of reasons. One is the company's combination of growth businesses, including artificial intelligence (AI), space, and satellite-based connectivity. Though they require significant investment and come with a fair share of risks, they also offer enormous opportunity. The AI market, for example, is set to reach beyond $3 trillion early next decade, and SpaceX aims to benefit from that. The company is investing heavily in AI -- to the tune of $15 billion in the recent quarter -- but it also reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion for that segment. This is compared to a loss in the March quarter.

The second element that's brought SpaceX to the forefront is its leadership. Chief Elon Musk is known for his commitment to innovation and ambitious goals -- while some investors consider his style risky, others see him as a visionary. In any case, Musk's presence has prompted many investors to at least watch SpaceX -- even if they aren't buying shares.

While SpaceX's innovation and growth have supported the buy case, the company carries a high level of risk. This is because some of the major goals involve technologies that haven't been fully developed or proven. And this element has weighed on stock performance.

What's happening on Sept. 9

Now, let's consider what's happening on Sept. 9 and what history says may follow. IPO companies define lockup periods for their stocks so that, at the launch, early investors won't flood the market with shares. These individuals, who invested in the company at the very start, don't necessarily aim to exit the story, but they may want to sell a few shares to lock in a profit. To make the situation fair for everyone, companies create a schedule of when these investors may sell a certain amount of stock.

SpaceX has already experienced two of these share-unlocks -- on Aug. 6, which was two trading days after the first earnings report, and on Aug. 20, on the 70th day after the stock's debut. The next unlock is set for Sept. 9.

Here's what recent history shows us. In the week following the first unlock, SpaceX stock climbed 22%, and in the week following the second unlock, the stock added 5%. So, history shows that, so far, the unlock periods haven't weighed on SpaceX. It's important to keep in mind that just because early investors are allowed to sell at a certain moment doesn't mean they'll do so right away.

Does this mean that SpaceX stock will climb after Sept. 9? It's possible. But what's most likely to build wealth for you is a stock's long-term performance, and today SpaceX remains a risky bet -- that means most investors are better off watching from the sidelines for now.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.