If Democrats Win the Midterms and Take Back the White House, What Happens to Bitcoin? VanEck Says Bitcoin Investors Don't Need to Worry.

The U.S. midterm elections are about two months away, and right now, Democrats are favored. They have an 89% chance of winning a House majority, according to Polymarket. Their odds of winning the Senate are essentially a coin flip at 51%.

The conventional wisdom is that Republican control of Washington, D.C. benefits Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), whereas Democratic control would be bearish for the top cryptocurrency. However, Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, offered a different view in a recent CNBC interview.

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Sigel believes a Democrat win isn't an issue for Bitcoin

When discussing the possibility of Democrats winning the midterms, Sigel said that "(former President Joe) Biden was actually OK for Bitcoin. It's the rest of cryptos that might have a problem." His assertion about Bitcoin checks out. Although it experienced significant price fluctuations during Biden's presidency, it reached multiple all-time highs from 2021 to 2025. Biden's term also saw the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, one of the factors that drove the cryptocurrency's growth in 2024 and seems to have given it a more stable price floor.

While Sigel didn't explain why he thought altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) would have a problem, many of the major altcoins are more vulnerable to regulatory scrutiny than Bitcoin. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, to give a few examples, all benefit from traditional financial institutions using their blockchain infrastructure. Financial institutions need an established regulatory environment to do that. The Clarity Act would introduce a clear federal framework for cryptocurrencies, but it stalled in the Senate and could be further delayed if Democrats win the midterms.

Bitcoin is much more established than any other cryptocurrency. Its purpose is already set as a digital store of value. Bitcoin isn't used for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, such as tokenizing stocks and other real-world assets for blockchain trading, and it doesn't need banks to use its blockchain. Regardless of which party has a majority, Bitcoin isn't likely to face any regulatory issues.

Where does Bitcoin go from here?

Sigel wasn't surprised by Bitcoin's recent rally. He explained on CNBC that VanEck has 12 capitulation signals for Bitcoin, and "every single one of them had fired" in the preceding three months.

In addition, he mentioned a few historical precedents in Bitcoin's favor. The first is its pattern of moving in four-year cycles, with highs and lows each occurring about four years apart. Sigel explained that the four-year Bitcoin cycle would put the bottom of this bear market sometime in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Bitcoin's current low in this bear market came on June 30, right at the end of the second quarter, which would be a bit early, but close enough to remain consistent.

Sigel also said that although Bitcoin generally doesn't go up in a straight line, after a rally of this size, "the subsequent one-year performance is excellent by historical standards."

Investors should never base their expectations for Bitcoin on its past performance. Cryptocurrency investing is anything but predictable. However, there are signals that Bitcoin could be starting a recovery phase.

Lyle Daly has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.