Credit Card Balances 90 Days Late Have Nearly Doubled Since 2022. New Delinquencies Have Not Moved.

When Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) reported its second-quarter 2026 earnings, it posted a 30-day delinquency rate of 3.13%, down from the previous year and below the first-quarter rate. Given the high rate of inflation and concerns about stretched consumers, that's a good sign. But what should investors really take away from this data? A recent Federal Reserve report takes a deeper dive into the numbers.

Capital One isn't alone

Capital One is a large bank and credit card company, with a focus on offering credit to lower-quality customers. But it generally doesn't delve into the higher-risk spaces of the industry. This is a key reason why Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF), which issues store cards, had a higher 30-day delinquency rate of 4.16%. Store cards tend to carry more credit risk. But, even here, the trends aren't bad. Like Capital One, Synchrony's 30-day delinquency rate was down sequentially and year over year.

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Bread Financial (NYSE: BFH), which, like Synchrony, offers private-label cards, had a delinquency rate of 5.25% in the second quarter. As with the other two card issuers above, that figure was lower than a year ago and than in the first quarter. Overall, based on results from these financial institutions, it looks like consumers are doing OK right now.

But inflation is running hot, with frequent media coverage of consumers being forced to tighten their belts. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York took a deeper dive into the numbers to get a read on what is going on. The big takeaway is that consumers are, in fact, doing OK. But there's still some risk to consider.

Nothing to worry about, yet

In a Liberty Street Economics report, researchers examined trends in 30- and 90-day delinquency rates, which are loans that are seriously delinquent and likely to be charged off. To these, the researchers added a third measure, which they called "the flow." Essentially, without getting too deep into the details, these are the loans that have moved from 30-day to 90-day delinquent in a given period.

The bad news first: "between 2022:Q3 and 2026:Q1, the percentage of credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6 percent to 12.8 percent, prompting concerns that Americans are falling behind on their debt payments at rates not seen since the Great Recession." That sounds really bad, but "the flow" metric changes the story in an important way.

According to the researchers, "the flow delinquency rate--which captures the rate of new delinquencies--has remained relatively stable for almost two years." In other words, consumers are, for the most part, managing through a difficult period. The real trouble lies among those who are truly struggling. And a key part of the story here is that the researchers believe lenders appear to be reporting on delinquent debts longer before charging them off, which has inflated the 90-day delinquency rate.

This isn't a sign that there's no risk. Summing up their results, the Fed researches noted that "when the question is 'how are households doing right now?' the flow delinquency rates...provide a more accurate view of current consumer repayment behavior. By those measures, we find that the pace of credit card delinquency is elevated but has been largely stable since 2024." Given the inflation backdrop and concerns about consumer spending, that sounds about right.

Keep a close eye on credit card delinquency rates

Credit card delinquency rates are often the first place where financial strain shows up. So you should continue to monitor the 30-day delinquency rate at companies like Capital One, Synchrony, and Bread Financial. Right now, consumers appear to be holding up reasonably well, but that doesn't mean the credit situation will remain this sanguine forever. And if you are concerned, you may consider trading into companies with better credit metrics, noting that Bread Financial's delinquency rate is more than two percentage points higher than Capital One's.

Synchrony Financial is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Bread Financial and Capital One Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.