Goldman Sachs Expects Global Space Economy to Reach $1.8 Trillion by 2035: Which Stocks Are Worth Watching?

TradingKey - Goldman Sachs currently projects that the global space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, while noting that increased public market financing could further drive industry M&A and consolidation. The space economy is gradually shifting from high-volatility thematic investing to industrial investing driven by commercial satellites, defense demand, communications infrastructure, and launch services.

For investors looking for suitable investment targets based on Goldman Sachs' views, three companies are worth watching: Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), and Redwire (RDW), which correspond to the three industry chains of launch + satellite systems, satellite-to-cellular connectivity, and space infrastructure, respectively.

Is RKLB Stock Worth Buying? $2.2 Billion in Orders and Neutron Unlock Growth Potential

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is currently one of the pure-play space economy companies in US equities with relatively high revenue scale and order visibility, and its investment thesis extends beyond the launch frequency of Electron rockets.

The company currently operates two main business segments: Launch Services and Space Systems. The latter encompasses products such as satellite platforms, solar components, flight software, and inter-satellite laser communications, which closely aligns with Goldman Sachs' view that investors should 'not only focus on launch companies, but also look for pick-and-shovel providers in the space supply chain.' Goldman Sachs believes that as the commercialization of the space industry expands, infrastructure and supply chain companies may gain more opportunities.

Rocket Lab's latest operating data provides clear fundamental support. The company's first-quarter revenue reached a record $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year, while its GAAP gross margin rose to 38.2%, and its order backlog reached $2.2 billion, continuing to grow both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The company also holds over $2 billion in liquidity.

Notably, in the first quarter, Rocket Lab added 31 Electron and HASTE launch contracts as well as 5 dedicated Neutron launch contracts, bringing its total signed launch missions to over 70. The number of launch missions signed in the first quarter alone exceeded that for all of 2025.

Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann also recently included Rocket Lab among his recommended space stocks. He believes that the space industry is currently driven by policy, military demand, technological innovation, and declining launch costs, making Rocket Lab one of the companies worth watching.

The biggest variable for RKLB in the next phase is Neutron. Once Neutron enters commercial operation, Rocket Lab's addressable market will expand from small satellites to large satellites, constellation deployment, and US defense missions.

A recent survey by Bank of America shows that space companies currently widely regard insufficient launch capacity as one of the main bottlenecks in the industry, with some launch slots booked out for the next two to three years. This provides potential demand for Neutron, but also constitutes RKLB's largest execution risk: Neutron remains in the development stage, and any delay in its inaugural flight, test failure, or cost overrun could impact market forecasts for future revenue.

Is ASTS Stock a Buy? Satellite Direct-to-Phone Targets 3 Billion Potential Users

AST SpaceMobile has a completely different business model from Rocket Lab. The company is building a low-Earth-orbit satellite cellular network, aiming to enable standard smartphones to connect directly to satellites without special satellite terminals.

In terms of commercial partnerships, the company has established partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators, covering over 3 billion subscribers globally. These include major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Orange, and Telefonica. The company has secured over $1.2 billion in contract revenue commitments from commercial partners.

A major change for ASTS this year is the emergence of actual revenue. The company's full-year 2025 revenue reached $70.9 million, making it a revenue-generating enterprise for the first time. Revenue in the latest second quarter further reached $31.5 million, and the company expects full-year 2026 revenue to reach $150 million to $200 million. Its revenue backlog currently stands at approximately $1.3 billion, with more than $125 million coming from U.S. government national security-related contracts.

The pace of satellite deployment will determine the timing of future commercialization. AST SpaceMobile plans to have 45 to 60 in-orbit satellites by the end of 2026. The company recently launched six new satellites in less than two months, bringing its number of in-orbit satellites to 13, with more satellites currently in production.

From an institutional perspective, Piper Sandler recently assigned ASTS an Overweight rating. In contrast, the firm takes a relatively neutral view on SpaceX (SPCX) and Rocket Lab, partly because it believes the current valuations of the latter two already reflect much of their long-term growth expectations.

For ASTS's stock price, the most crucial metric ahead is not single-quarter EPS, but rather the number of satellite launches, commercial service launch timing, subscriber coverage scale, and the speed at which contract commitments of over $1.2 billion convert into actual revenue. If these metrics progress according to plan, ASTS could become one of the direct beneficiaries of satellite communications growth in the $1.8 trillion space economy.

Is RDW Stock a Buy? Space Infrastructure Demand Grows, Orders Hit Record High

Goldman Sachs believes that investors who focus solely on rocket launch companies may overlook broader opportunities in the space industry. Looking ahead, companies providing infrastructure, electronic equipment, advanced materials, and manufacturing capabilities to the entire industry may be more worthy of attention. Meanwhile, RDW's core business is providing satellite components, solar arrays, sensors, avionics, in-space manufacturing, and related defense technologies.

According to RDW's latest financial report, its first-quarter revenue reached $97 million, up 57.9% year-over-year, while its gross margin rose to 26.6%. More notably, its book-to-bill ratio reached 1.92x, indicating that new orders received during the quarter significantly exceeded recognized revenue for the period, providing support for subsequent revenue. Meanwhile, the backlog rose to a record $498.1 million.

RDW also secured the Andromeda IDIQ advanced spacecraft contract worth up to $1.8 billion, as well as follow-on orders from the U.S. Marine Corps and a quantum-secure satellite project from the European Space Agency. The company currently maintains its 2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million.

Therefore, RDW is better understood as a high-elasticity target under Goldman Sachs' 'picks and shovels' thesis, rather than a mature, profitable company. If global satellite numbers, defense space programs, and investments in in-space infrastructure continue to increase, the company's orders may benefit; whether the stock price can receive sustained support will depend on revenue growth ultimately converting into positive EBITDA and cash flow.

Summary

Goldman Sachs believes that as more space companies enter the public market, increased access to capital could drive further M&A and vertical integration in the industry; meanwhile, investment opportunities in space stocks may gradually spread from pure rocket launches to communications, satellites, and supply chain infrastructure.

From a market perspective, the three companies correspond to three distinct investment logics: RKLB's advantage lies in its already sizable revenue scale and $2.2 billion order backlog, with Neutron providing a new growth variable; ASTS's core appeal centers on the direct-to-cell market and over $1.2 billion in contract commitments, though it faces the highest commercial execution risk; RDW is closer to the "pick-and-shovel" logic highlighted by Goldman Sachs, participating in the expansion of the entire industry through satellite components and infrastructure.