SpaceX's Tradable Float Could Triple by December. History Says That's a Problem for the Stock.
Key Points
SpaceX’s shares will be unlocked in waves through the end of the year.
Those lockup expirations could roughly triple its float.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public at $135 per share on June 12. Its stock soared to a record high of $225.64 on June 16, but it trades at about $110 as of this writing. Three major issues are driving its stock lower: its sky-high valuation (still at 76 times its 2025 sales), the staggering losses in its AI division, and expectations for its float to roughly triple by December.
Of these three headwinds, the last one is the most unpredictable because it could limit its upside potential as more insiders cash out. Let's see why that's such a major problem.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks »
Image source: Getty Images.
Why will SpaceX's float skyrocket by the end of 2026?
SpaceX only sold about 5% of its shares in its IPO. However, it won't bar its insiders, early investors, and large institutional investors from selling their shares with a traditional 180-day lockup period. Instead, it will allow those investors to sell their shares in several waves.
The first wave -- which unlocked 20% of its shares -- occurred on Aug. 6, the second trading day after its second-quarter earnings report on Aug. 4. It will unlock another 7% of its shares on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24. On the second trading day after its third-quarter earnings report, it will unlock 28% of its shares. On Dec. 8, it will unlock all of its remaining shares.
All of those lockup expirations could drive SpaceX's stock lower -- so investors might want to wait for that smoke to clear before buying it as a long-term investment.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $400,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,345,502!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 956% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 214% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 6, 2026.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
