Wall Street Sees SpaceX Revenue Growth Ahead of First Earnings Report; Morgan Stanley Maintains $300 Target

TradingKey - SpaceX ( SPCX) will report its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on August 4, Eastern Time, marking the company's first earnings report since its listing in June.

SpaceX went public at $135 per share and once climbed to $225.64 after listing, but has fallen to $108.37 as of July 31, retreating over 50% from its peak and hitting a new low since its IPO.

With the stock price already below its IPO price and a massive lock-up expiration closely following, Morgan Stanley ( MS) believes that SpaceX is facing its most severe market test since listing. However, the firm still maintains an 'Overweight' rating on SpaceX and keeps its target price at $300, believing that the market is still significantly underestimating the long-term value of the company's AI business.

First Earnings Report to Show if Growth Is Still Accelerating

Wall Street currently expects SpaceX's second-quarter revenue to reach $6.88 billion, with a net loss per share of $0.23. Morgan Stanley's forecast is slightly more cautious, projecting revenue of approximately $6.75 billion and an adjusted loss per share of $0.35. For comparison, the company's first-quarter revenue was $4.69 billion, with a loss per share of $1.27.

The market expects AI and Starlink to be the primary drivers of growth this quarter. Among them, AI business revenue could increase from $818 million in the first quarter to $2.18 billion, while launch services revenue is projected to grow by nearly 35% to $835 million. Connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, is expected to reach $3.83 billion, representing a 17.5% increase from the first quarter.

Starlink remains the most stable revenue foundation for SpaceX, with consumer subscriber numbers reaching 10.3 million in the first quarter, covering personal broadband, aviation communications, mobile networks, and government services. Morgan Stanley expects Starlink's consumer subscribers to potentially increase to 12 million in the second quarter, with average monthly revenue per user of approximately $65.50.

Meanwhile, Musk has also recently sent more optimistic long-term signals.

On August 1, he replied to a post on the X platform regarding SpaceX's growth potential, stating that "few people understand this." The post projects that with the accelerated expansion of AI computing infrastructure and Starlink, SpaceX could add annualized revenue equivalent to Tesla's current size over the next 12 to 24 months, representing approximately $95 billion to $104 billion.

$300 Price Target Mainly Bets on AI Business

Despite a significant pullback in SpaceX's share price, Morgan Stanley maintains its $300 price target. Based on the current stock price, this implies a potential upside of over 170%.

In the bank's valuation model, the traditional space business is valued at approximately $8 per share, Starlink and connectivity at around $128, the X platform and Grok at about $12, and the enterprise AI business reaches $152. In other words, AI contributes more than half of SpaceX's target valuation, while the rocket launch business represents only a small fraction.

This valuation reflects that Morgan Stanley is actually betting on SpaceX's future expansion in enterprise AI, data centers, and orbital computing, rather than its current launch revenue. The long-term thesis is that if Starship can achieve low-cost, high-frequency, and fully reusable operations, SpaceX could gradually deploy computing infrastructure to orbit and leverage Starlink to provide data connectivity.

However, this price target is premised on several long-term assumptions, including the maturation of Starship technology, sustained growth in AI demand, and the commercialization of orbital data centers. Any project delays, cost overruns, or rising financing needs could lead to a significant downward revision in the valuation.

$100 Billion Restricted Share Unlock Heightens Short-Term Risk

Two days after the earnings release, SpaceX will also face its first round of post-listing lock-up expiration. It is estimated that a maximum of approximately 911.5 million shares can enter circulation starting August 6, which, calculated at recent prices, corresponds to a market value of about $100 billion. The shares becoming eligible for trading does not mean they will all be sold, but early investors and employees hold high paper gains, leading to market concerns that profit-taking could exacerbate stock price volatility.

With the concurrent pressure of earnings and the lock-up expiration, simply meeting market expectations may not be enough to stabilize the stock price. SpaceX needs to prove to investors that Starlink is still growing rapidly, AI investments have a clear path to monetization, and the progress of Starship has not significantly deviated from the schedule.

Discussions regarding a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla may also arise during the conference call, but such reports still lack clear evidence at present. Compared to merger rumors, management's outlook on cash flow, capital expenditures, and the three core businesses is the key to determining whether SpaceX's stock price can break out of its post-listing slump.