Chipotle Raises Full-Year Guidance After 9.3% Revenue Jump. Is the Turnaround Finally Here?

Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) came into the second-quarter earnings report with its back against the wall. The stock had fallen roughly 50% since its peak in late 2024 as growth slowed, it lost star CEO Brian Niccol to Starbucks, and the broader fast-casual industry struggled. Chipotle’s valuation, which had been priced for endless growth, came back down to earth.

With its second-quarter report now in, the burrito roller didn’t deliver a blowout report, but the results were strong enough to lift the stock after hours, up 6%.

Chipotle reported 2.2% comparable sales growth, its best result in six quarters, and revenue rose 9.3% to $3.33 billion, matching analyst estimates. New store openings boosted top-line growth, as Chipotle added 100 company-owned restaurants in the quarter, bringing the total to more than 4,200. Chipotle continued to see margins shrink as both food and labor costs rose, as Chipotle faced inflation in both categories, and general and administrative expenses grew faster than revenue. Menu price increases help offset the cost inflation.

Operating margin fell from 18.2% to 15.7%, and it reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.33, flat from a year ago, and ahead of the consensus at $0.32. Share buybacks lowered shares outstanding by 5%, boosting EPS.

CEO Scott Boatwright said, “Our positive results reflect the momentum we’re building as our Recipe for Growth strategy continues to take shape.” He noted the impact of menu innovation, the revamped Chipotle Rewards program, hospitality improvements, and the expanded catering business.

However, what really seemed to boost the stock was its improved guidance: the company now sees full-year comparable sales growth in the low single digits, up from a previous forecast of flat comparable sales.

Image source: Chipotle.

Is the turnaround here?

Chipotle’s second quarter certainly marks an improvement for the business. However, it’s a modest one, given that comparable sales are still in the low single digits, margins are falling, and adjusted earnings per share are flat.

At this point, the stock may be benefiting from low expectations and the fact that its valuation has become much more attractive as it has fallen, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31 before the after-hours pop.

That’s a fair price to pay for a stock with Chipotle’s track record, which is still planning to virtually double its number of restaurants. However, for the stock to move meaningfully higher, comparable sales will have to accelerate, and margins will need to rebound.

Chipotle isn’t alone among fast-casual chains in facing challenges. The so-called K-shaped economy has put pressure on key customer segments, such as young adults and lower-income customers, which is one reason Chipotle revamped its rewards program.

That’s a good reason to give Chipotle some time to return to growth, but investors shouldn’t mistake a relief rally for a turnaround. We’ll need to see strong comp sales growth and real profit growth to know the burrito chain is back on a healthy path.

Jeremy Bowman has positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.