Uber Agrees to Invest up to $1.2 Billion in Rivian and Purchase up to 50,000 R2s. Here's Why Rivian May Be a Sneaky Robotaxi Winner.

In the new frontier of robotaxis, Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) decided that its best strategy is not to build them. Instead, it will rely on other companies, like Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), to produce its fleet. In the long run, this can benefit Uber, as it already has the software and branding to easily integrate robotaxis into its transportation ecosystem.

But this can also benefit Rivian, making it a potentially sneaky robotaxi winner. Here's why.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Details of the deal

In March, Uber announced it would invest up to $1.2 billion in Rivian through 2031, contingent on Rivian meeting certain milestones. Uber or its fleet partners will also purchase 10,000 of Rivian's R2 robotaxis, with the right to purchase up to 40,000 more by 2030, bringing potential total purchases to 50,000 vehicles. The plan is to roll out the R2 vehicles in Miami and San Francisco in 2028 and eventually be in 25 cities by 2031.

Beyond the Uber agreement

There's a lot for Rivian to like about Uber's deal, as it could serve as a high-stakes test of its autonomous vehicle technology in a market that will only become more valuable. By 2035, the global robotaxi market is expected to reach $415 billion, according to research from Goldman Sachs Group.

If the deal with Uber is successful, it would lend credibility to Rivian's abilities to produce robotaxis, helping to expand its revenue-generating potential. Areas of opportunity would be wide open, including everything from rental cars to delivery vehicles.

Speaking of delivery vehicles, as a fun fact, Amazon, which owns over 158 million shares of Rivian as of March 31, ordered 100,000 electric delivery vans from Rivian in 2019. This is just hypothetical, but in the not-too-distant future, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario in which Amazon could order autonomous delivery vans from a company like Rivian and have robots ride in them to deliver packages.

The challenges ahead

As much as there is to like about Rivian's upside potential, there are also risks. Rivian is not a profitable company, reporting net losses of $3.6 billion in 2025 and $4.7 billion in 2024. Relatively speaking, it simply doesn't produce many vehicles and needs to increase its scalability to eventually reach profitability. As an example, Rivian expects to deliver up to 70,000 vehicles for all of 2026, while competitor Tesla delivered over 480,000 vehicles in just the second quarter of 2026.

The good news for anyone considering an investment in Rivian is that scaling is underway, with a plant under construction in Georgia that's expected to start producing vehicles in 2028.

With all that in mind, an investment in Rivian is about what it could do in the future, including executing its plan to build a robotaxi fleet for Uber. That can unlock more opportunities, but it requires precise execution from the management team with little room for error.

For those with a higher risk appetite, Rivian could be a small, speculative position in a portfolio. For a less risky investment in the robotaxi space, I would consider Uber, as it's profitableand comes with a fuller transportation ecosystem that is shaping up to include everything from robotaxis to air taxis.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.