Australian Dollar trims losses after Fed holds
- AUD/USD trims losses after Fed hold, but remains under pressure.
- Three FOMC dissenters favored rate hike, keeping hawkish risks alive.
- Warsh press conference next key catalyst for Aussie direction.
The Aussie Dollar trimmed some of its earlier losses after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, by a 9 to 3 vote, with three dissenters who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The AUD/USD trades at around 0.6950, down 0.32%.
AUD/USD remains on the backfoot, despite Fed’s decision
The Fed noted that economic activity continues to grow steadily despite the high uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. It highlighted that “Productivity growth and capital investment are robust. Job gains remain consistent with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
The policy statement reaffirmed the Fed's dedication to maintaining price stability. Dissenting opinions came from Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed Lorie Logan, who favored a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Investors now await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
AUD/USD Hourly chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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