Is Joby Stock Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire?

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has a radical vision that Wall Street once loved but now is losing faith in, apparently.

The vision? For that, you have to imagine a sky in the city: Picture, there, helicopter-like aircraft, sleek, electric, and quiet, taxiing folks to and from vertiports in the city. If you can see a lot of these electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in your make-believe sky, then you can also picture Joby in its heyday, maintaining strong margins on these flying cars. The faster and safer they whirl above traffic, the stronger the demand for air taxi services.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

But now, the reality. For that, look at the skies above any American city: There are no eVTOLs flying commercially in the U.S. Joby may have built one of the most advanced flying taxi prototypes in the world today, but without proof that it can be mass-produced, investors have been a little less sure of its stock.

Increased hesitation toward Joby's business, whetted by a general skepticism toward speculative stocks today, has contributed to the air taxi designer's roughly 50% decline in 2026. And yet for those who can hold the stock long-term, I think today could be the entry that stamps a ticket to millionaire status. Here's one reason why.

Joby may be further along than investors realize

Five years ago, Morgan Stanley released a sweeping report on the future of eVTOLs and urban air mobility (UAM). Although the 50-page document has plenty of fascinating information, the most stirring among investors was a prediction that the total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOLs would reach $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050.

That was only the base case, too. In Morgan Stanley's most bullish scenario, analysts forecast the global eVTOL and UAM market reaching $4.4 trillion by 2040 and $18.9 trillion by 2050.

So far, Joby hasn't done anything yet to rule out Morgan Stanley's base case. In fact, its technological and regulatory progress looks pretty consistent with it. Joby has demonstrated flights in New York City, it is gearing up for production with its manufacturing partner Toyota (NYSE: TM), and it's two years deep into the fourth of the FAA's five-stage process for Type Certification.

With FAA Type Certification, Joby's eVTOL design -- the S4 -- would meet the FAA's safety standards, which would be a massive step forward toward commercialization.

But here's where it gets interesting: Joby has made such immense progress that it hasn't ruled out the bull case scenario, either.

If you read the conditions that would create this bullish scenario, your eye might catch something interesting: "Economic rationale more clearly evident and taking a far larger share of surface transport market, bolstered by relatively more accommodative policy and path to certification."

And wasn't it just last September that Joby planned to "jump-start U.S. operations" through a White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), an initiative designed to accelerate commercial operations of eVTOLs in the U.S?

It is, of course, too early to say whether the eVTOL's TAD is on track for the $19 trillion bull case. But the situation today is much more optimistic than Morgan Stanley's bear case -- which combines unsuccessful technology and obstructive governmental policy -- and seems very supportive of the business Joby is trying to build.

For that, I think this year's sell-off will, in retrospect, look like a prime buying opportunity. Almost everything that matters still sits in front of Joby -- it needs FAA type certification more than anything -- but for risk-tolerant investors, a sizable position could be your ticket to millionaire status.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.