Will Trump Nationalize SpaceX? Here's What Betting Markets Are Predicting Post-IPO.

The Trump Administration has not been shy about taking ownership stakes in what it views as critical suppliers of goods and services key to U.S. interests.

In recent years, the U.S. government has taken interests in semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), rare-earth miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP), and lithium producer Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE: LAC).

"The U.S. government has negotiated stakes in dozens of companies," reports CNBC. "Some U.S. ownership stakes have been opportunistic, while others have been a part of a broader economic strategy."

Now, there's a rising belief that the U.S. government will take ownership stakes in key artificial intelligence companies. Last month, Senator Bernie Sanders wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times suggesting that citizens consider nationalizing certain powerful companies that control critical AI technologies.

Image source: Getty Images.

"Artificial intelligence will almost certainly be the most transformational technology in the history of the world," Sanders wrote. "The question, then, is not whether A.I. will change the world. It will. The question is: Who will own and control that future? Who will benefit from it, and who will be hurt by it?"

Sanders's solution is to establish a sovereign wealth fund that can facilitate such direct stakes. AI investors should take note.

"I will soon be introducing the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act," Sanders revealed. "This legislation would give the public a direct ownership stake in the largest A.I. companies in our country. How? It would create a sovereign wealth fund through a one-time 50 percent tax -- not on the profits of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and other companies, but paid with something far more valuable than that: the stock."

Sanders specifically lists xAI -- the AI division of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) -- as a potential target of partial nationalization. How seriously should investors be taking this? Betting markets offer some insight into what might happen next.

Nationalize SpaceX? Here's what betting markets are predicting

Previous to SpaceX's historic IPO, betting markets were surprisingly bullish on the U.S. government nationalizing the company. In August of 2025, for example, certain betting markets had odds of the space company being nationalized by January of 2027 at around 11%, though limited trading volumes make this somewhat suspect.

As the year has rolled on, however, the odds of SpaceX being nationalized by the start of next year have consistently fallen. Current odds hover at roughly 4%. Considering the track record for things like this in prediction markets, it's fair to say that these are just guesses.

Of course, the government could always begin nationalization -- or at least the process of taking a direct stake -- after January of 2027. We just don't have betting markets for predicting such a situation. But if recent history is any indication, investors should not be surprised to see governments more directly involved in the AI sector's evolution.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel and MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.