Elon Musk Admits He Underestimated Anthropic's AI, and Amazon and Alphabet Investors Should Take Notice
Key Points
Elon Musk's public praise of Anthropic reinforces Amazon and Alphabet's hidden AI investment advantage.
Investors should separate paper valuation gains from sustainable operating earnings as AI enthusiasm remains elevated.
Amazon and Alphabet benefit twice through appreciating Anthropic stakes and massive long-term cloud revenue.
- These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›
Elon Musk doesn't hand out compliments to rivals often, which is why his recent about-face turned heads. After dismissing the AI start-up Anthropic last year, Musk posted that he "was clearly wrong" and now considers it "obviously currently the leader in AI," praising its latest Claude models as the strongest yet. That is a striking admission from a competitor. But the investors who should really pay attention are not watching Musk. They are shareholders of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Musk had written a year ago that "winning was never in the set of possible outcomes for Anthropic." Reversing that in public, and calling Anthropic the outright leader, is the kind of validation money can't easily buy. It came after Anthropic raised an enormous funding round and shipped models that impressed even skeptics. When the person running a competing AI lab concedes your product is the best, the market listens.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks »
Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.
Why Amazon and Alphabet are the real winners
Here's the connection most headlines miss: Amazon and Alphabet are two of Anthropic's largest backers. Alphabet owns roughly 14% of the company, and Amazon holds a stake in the mid- to high teens, positions each worth well over $100 billion at Anthropic's latest valuation near $965 billion. Amazon alone had committed around $33 billion, with a pledge to invest tens of billions more as milestones are hit. If Anthropic is truly the AI leader, those stakes could swell further, especially with the company reportedly heading toward a blockbuster IPO.
The equity is only half the story, though. Anthropic has committed to spending more than $100 billion on Amazon Web Services over the next decade, including heavy use of Amazon's custom Trainium chips, and roughly $200 billion on Google Cloud over five years, potentially leaning on Alphabet's own AI accelerators. So both giants win twice: their investment appreciates, and the AI leader becomes an anchor customer funneling tens of billions into their cloud businesses. That is a rare double benefit, and Musk's endorsement only strengthens the case that Anthropic will keep growing into those commitments.
The catch investors should weigh
I wouldn't get carried away, though, because there's a real wrinkle here. A large chunk of the eye-popping "AI profits" Amazon and Alphabet have reported recently came from marking up the value of their Anthropic stakes, not from selling more products. Amazon booked billions in pretax gains in a single quarter simply because Anthropic's paper valuation rose. Paper gains are nice, but they aren't the same as durable operating earnings, and they can reverse just as quickly if the AI mood sours.
There's also a whiff of circularity worth acknowledging. Amazon and Alphabet invest in Anthropic, and Anthropic turns around and spends that money on their cloud services and chips. That can inflate everyone's numbers in the good times, but it also means the whole arrangement leans on a continuation of the AI boom. Anthropic itself is still spending enormously and is not a mature, profitable business. And its nearly $1 trillion private valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
The takeaway for investors
Musk's admission is more than a bit of tech-world drama. It's a high-profile confirmation that Anthropic, a company quietly underpinning two of the market's biggest stocks, is winning. For Amazon and Alphabet shareholders, that means their exposure to the AI race runs deeper than the chatbots and cloud tools you can see, extending into a stake that could be worth hundreds of billions and a customer relationship worth hundreds of billions more.
My honest take is that this is a genuine, underappreciated strength for both companies, but investors should hold it in perspective. Enjoy the upside from owning a piece of the AI leader, while remembering that a big slice of the recent gains are marks on paper, not cash in the bank. The businesses underneath still have to deliver.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
- Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $526,675!*
- Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $63,609!*
- Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $371,842!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
See the 3 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 19, 2026.
Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
