SpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Will get Your Portfolio Into Orbit in 2026?

The satellite race is intensifying as Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) seek to connect the world from orbit, leaving investors to decide which pioneer offers better long-term potential.

Space Exploration Technologies — SpaceX — provides high-speed internet through its Starlink constellation and dominates the global rocket launch market. AST SpaceMobile focuses on a direct-to-device cellular network, eliminating the need for specialized ground equipment. Both companies aim to bridge the global digital divide, but their business models and financial health vary significantly.

The case for SpaceX

Space Exploration Technologies provides rocket launch services to commercial and government agencies while scaling its Starlink broadband business. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink reported approximately 10.3 million subscribers across 164 distinct markets. The company leverages its reusable rocket technology to deploy its own satellite constellations at a significantly lower cost than traditional aerospace firms.

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $18.7 billion, an increase of approximately 33% from the $14 billion reported in the previous year. Despite this top-line growth, the company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion for the fiscal year. This performance reflects the massive capital requirements for building out the global Starlink network and developing next-generation heavy-lift rockets.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 1.4x, indicating the company maintains sufficient short-term assets to cover its immediate liabilities. Free cash flow, calculated as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was about negative $14 billion in FY 2025. Note that stock-based compensation (SBC) accounted for roughly 28.7% of operating cash flow, inflating reported cash generation, since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network designed to connect standard, unmodified smartphones directly to satellites. The company has established partnerships with approximately 60 mobile network operators, including AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ), targeting nearly 3 billion potential subscribers. This business model focuses on a revenue-sharing agreement within the communication stocks space rather than selling direct hardware to consumers.

In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.

The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, reflecting heavy investment in its satellite constellation.

Risk profile comparison

Space Exploration Technologies faces significant risks associated with the high cost and technical complexity of its satellite and rocket programs. Any delays in launch schedules or mission failures could disrupt the expansion of the Starlink network and impact customer trust. Additionally, the company must navigate evolving international regulations regarding orbital debris and spectrum allocation that could limit its growth in certain regions.

AST SpaceMobile deals with financial strain, having recently issued $1 billion in convertible notes that could dilute existing shareholders. The business success depends on the unproven Block 2 satellites and proprietary ASIC chips, which face potential delays and cost overruns. The company also competes against better-funded rivals like Space Exploration Technologies and must maintain complex regulatory approvals from the FCC to operate its network.

Valuation comparison

Space Exploration Technologies carries a lower P/S ratio than AST SpaceMobile, although both are high relative to the sector.

Sector benchmark uses the SPDR XLI sector ETF.
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

The success of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has made founder Elon Musk the richest man in the world and given him the expectation that he can make an even greater fortune out of SpaceX, as Space Exploration Technologies Corp is known. The business certainly has market support behind it, raising the world’s largest IPO, $85.7 billion.

SpaceX's various businesses intend to leverage the company's core launch capabilities, done with reusable rockets. The ability to reuse boosters significantly lowers per-launch costs and spreads fixed manufacturing costs across multiple missions. Expectations are that scaling up quickly will happen, with Wall Street analysts projecting $39 billion in sales for fiscal 2026 with a much lower net loss, around $1.6 billion, and move into profitability in 2027.

The lack of free cash flow looks to be crushing; however, projections indicate free cash flow will be negative $28 billion this year, jumping to negative $67 billion in 2027.

AST SpaceMobile doesn’t have the grand ideas of SpaceX (no Mars colonies planned here), but the organization expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Bell Canada, Telus (NYSE:TU), and Rakuten in Japan.

By the end of the year, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow looks to be much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.

While SpaceX has the hype from its high-profile founder and its extravagant projections about far-off businesses, it, too, is mainly a network provider right now. Given AST SpaceMobile appears more focused on its business plan and will probably be the earlier of the two to turn a profit, it’s the space stock to buy in 2026.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, American Tower, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.