Can Amazon Become a $4 Trillion Stock by 2027?
Key Points
The AI business, backed by Amazon's name, cash, and client list, is growing rapidly.
It's planning to have same-day delivery available in 4,500 U.S. cities by the end of the year.
Amazon stock is trading at a discount today.
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Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been one of the best-performing stocks ever on the market, but it's not so hot right now. It's underperforming the S&P 500 with a 7% year-to-date increase, right smack in the middle of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks.
One Wall Street analyst sees Amazon stock gaining 50% over the next 12 months. If that were to happen, Amazon would reach $4 trillion in total value. Here's how it could work.
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Opportunities in AI
Amazon's biggest opportunities today are in artificial intelligence (AI). It was in a position to harness the opportunity when AI exploded almost four years ago, since its cloud services company, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is the largest of its kind, accounting for nearly 30% of the global market, according to Statista.
Image source: Amazon.
This business is growing at the rate of an AI upstart, which is basically what it is. However, it's leveraging Amazon's backing and cash to get ahead.
Some examples of recent performance: Spending on Bedrock, AWS's signature AI building platform, increased 170% sequentially in the 2026 first quarter, and the number of developers using Kiro, AWS's agentic AI coding tool, more than doubled.
This trend is also driving growth into AWS as a whole, which had been slowing. AWS sales increased 28% year over year in the first quarter, the highest growth in 15 quarters, and on a base close to twice the size of what it was 15 quarters ago.
"We have never seen a technology grow as rapidly as AI," said CEO Andy Jassy.
Adventures in e-commerce and more
The company's engine is still e-commerce, which represented more than 60% of total sales in the first quarter. Amazon accounts for more than 40% of all U.S. e-commerce, according to Statista, and the continued shift to online shopping benefits perhaps Amazon more than any other company in the world. Amazon recently overtook Walmart as the largest company in the world by sales, driven by the e-commerce machine.
E-commerce is still growing by double digits, and management is constantly improving the value proposition. It now reaches hundreds of markets with one-hour delivery, and 2,000 markets with three-hour delivery, and it's planning to have same-day delivery available in 4,500 U.S. cities by the end of the year.
Amazon continues to acquire smaller companies that support its businesses, and it's also rolling out its own new ventures. One project to watch is Amazon Leo, formerly Project Kuiper, which is a direct competitor of Space Exploration Technologies' Starlink business. It's just launching and much smaller than Starlink, but it has already made some important deals with companies including Delta Airlines, which will use it for in-flight Wi-Fi, and Apple, which will use it for Apple Watches and other products.
Can Amazon stock gain 50% by next year?
Amazon has been demonstrating fine performance recently, and it has robust long-term opportunities. However, its performance hasn't been enough to quell market fears about AI overspending and failing to recoup its investments.
At the current price, Amazon trades at under 30 times trailing-12-month earnings, just off a 10-year low. That gives the stock some space to rise.
For Amazon to reach $4 trillion, keeping the P/E ratio constant, net income would need to increase 50% over the next 12 months. It grew 31% in 2025, and 50% is possible but a high goal. However, if it grows 31% again in 2026, the stock could still gain 50% at a higher P/E ratio.
Management is guiding for operating income to increase only slightly year over year in the second quarter. It's cash outlays for the AI build-out are eating into profitability, and management says it's short-term pressure for long-term gain. However, Amazon stock may have limited upside in the short term without a skyrocketing valuation if profits are pressured.
The consensus analyst target price for Amazon stock over the next year or so is 30%, reaching close to $3.5 trillion in value, and there's more of a case for that to happen.
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Jennifer Saibil has positions in Apple and Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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