The Iran Ceasefire Is Over. Which Cryptocurrencies Could See the Biggest Impact in 2026?

On July 8, President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over" at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, and the U.S. and Iran have since returned to active hostilities. Oil prices spiked, and crypto prices saw plenty of volatility -- but, at least so far, that volatility hasn't resulted in sharp price declines as in the war's prior phase before the ceasefire, and some coins even went up.

So which coins are the most likely to see the biggest impact from the war starting again, and why?

Image source: Getty Images.

Bitcoin's pattern is encouraging

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has behaved quite oddly during the conflict with Iran, and its pattern of behavior is shifting amid the coin's own cyclical bear market.

On June 13, 2025, as Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, Bitcoin fell almost 4% within a day, from $107,000 to $103,000. On June 8, 2026, when the two countries traded their biggest strikes since that April, Bitcoin again dropped more than 2%, from a starting point of $63,700. But in both cases, as well as so far in its price action on July 7-9, the pattern has been a shallow drop at the start of hostilities, followed by a bounce within a week.

Iran does not officially hold Bitcoin, nor is there significant mining in the country, nor are there significant holdings or mining operations in any other belligerent state. Still, Iran began accepting Bitcoin as one option for paying the new Strait of Hormuz transit tolls it levied in March 2026. The June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) that ushered in the first ceasefire paused toll collection for 60 days, but Iran had already adopted a so-called service fees as a workaround to that pause, and, with the ceasefire's collapse, the pause is now itself in question.

Although it's unclear exactly how much revenue Iran has made from that arrangement or whether it will continue, preliminary estimates suggest that it could be as much as $7.7 billion on an annualized basis. That would create a new source of demand for Bitcoin.

Is Ethereum an oil trade in disguise?

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has fallen two to three times harder than Bitcoin did during every flare-up of the conflict. Its Ether coin fell 7% in a day during the June 2025 strikes and about the same in the first phase of fighting in 2026.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee argues that Ether's inverse correlation with the price of crude oil is the cause of this behavior. His rationale is that a surge in oil prices stokes inflation, which then leads the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates and usher in tighter macro conditions that inevitably punish rate-sensitive assets like Ether.

So, for anyone shopping for inflation-proof investments, Ethereum is probably the wrong option, as it appears vulnerable to the inflationary pressure this conflict creates.

The coins with the most direct Iran exposure

There are a couple of coins that are highly exposed to Iran specifically.

Tron (CRYPTO: TRX) is historically the primary payment rail that Iran uses for its stablecoin activities. Nobitex, Iran's largest crypto exchange, has moved at least $2 billion on Tron and $317 million on BNB since 2023, per a Reuters analysis. On June 2, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Nobitex and three of its peers. And when an Israeli hacker group drained $90 million from Nobitex's coffers in June 2025, Tron fell 6.5% in a day; there is a high risk of this kind of cyber warfare happening again.

Yet Iran uses stablecoins more when access to its traditional financial system is under pressure. Nobitex kept moving funds through the February to April 2026 strikes despite near-total internet blackouts in Iran. Renewed conflict could lead to increased transaction volume, which could mean Tron, and to a lesser extent BNB, see their prices bid up -- or, they could get caught in the crossfire.

The best plan is to stay far away from those coins for the moment.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still investable and may even be exposed to new upside, so it's worth continuing to accumulate it.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool recommends BNB and TRON. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.