Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending?

The crypto flash crash on Oct. 10, 2025, started the bear market with a bang. Nine months into the slump, most crypto majors have lost at least 30% of their peak value; some investor have been saying that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is dead; and many altcoins have experienced plunges in excess of 95%. But in recent weeks, there have been a few inklings suggest the end of the bear market may be in sight.

Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) is flirting with an all-time high; Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) is up 16% in a month (as of July 8); and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is clawing its way back from its June lows. Are those things just a coincidence, or is there a real chance of the bear market ending soon?

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The case that things are looking up

One of the main features of crypto bear markets is that capital abandons weaker projects and consolidates into a handful of perceived winners. Those winners are typically a mix of the crypto majors and promising altcoins that look likely to survive and eventually thrive as market conditions improve.

Hyperliquid is the poster child for this kind of capital rotation. Despite being an altcoin, the token is up 75% during the past three months thanks to the success of its platform for trading perpetual futures contracts. What's more, three U.S. spot Hyperliquid exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have drawn in a total of $312.9 million in net capital inflows since their launch in mid-May.

Another major feature of crypto bear markets is that pessimism about previously disfavored assets starts to dissipate due to fundamentals improving to the point where they can't be ignored.

For example, at the start of 2026, Solana's sum total of tradeable, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) on its chain were worth $1.4 billion, and as of July 8, that capital base was worth $3.5 billion, up 38% during the past 30 days alone. And Ethereum's tokenized asset value is recovering too, though at an slower pace.

So, there are indeed some green shoots forming here, and the market appears to be noticing.

It isn't over yet

The bear market probably isn't over yet, though the odds of it dragging on for a lot longer are also dropping.

Historically, crypto bear markets last between nine and 18 months, with a median duration of about 12 months. By that historical measure, being nine months in is not the optimal moment to buy cryptocurrency. For Bitcoin, the last market cycle saw a 77% decline from November 2021 to November 2022; the coin's current 50% tumble from its all-time high set in October 2025 could have much further to go.

The macro environment is not cooperating either.

In May, the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation came in at a three-year high of 4.2%, in line with expectations but hot enough that the Federal Reserve's next move may be a rate hike rather than a cut. If that happens, it will starve crypto of the liquidity it needs to rebound. At the same time, with the ongoing bonanza in semiconductor, AI, and memory stocks, capital in the traditional financial system has no shortage of high-growth places to invest in, which makes risky alternatives like crypto a lot less likely to run.

Loading up on high quality crypto names during a bear market tends to be profitable even if the macro environment suggests things won't improve for a while. The practical approach for investors here is thus to dollar-cost average into crypto majors like Bitcoin and Solana. For those who are especially risk tolerant, buying Hyperliquid or one of its competitors could also be a good decision.

But no matter what you do, be ready to hold onto your purchases for quite some time; the market almost never works on the schedule that investors have in mind.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.