AMD Is 11% Away From Joining the $1 Trillion Club. Could It Get There This Year?

AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) carries a market value of about $920 billion. To join the $1 trillion club -- the small group of companies worth 13 figures -- the stock needs to climb only about 11% from here. After the run it has been on, more than quadrupling off its 52-week low, that no longer sounds far-fetched.

So could AMD close the final stretch and cross $1 trillion before the year is out?

Image source: Getty Images.

Where the growth comes from

What's powering AMD isn't its long-standing business in personal-computer and gaming chips, steady as that has become. It is the data center -- and, within it, the AI accelerators (the specialized graphics processing units, or GPUs) it sells to companies building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

In the first quarter of 2026, AMD's data center revenue rose 57% year over year to about $5.8 billion -- more than half of the company's $10.3 billion in total sales, and up sharply from a business a fraction of this size a few years ago. AI accelerators make up a substantial piece of that data center total, and sales of those accelerators grew by a strong double-digit percentage year over year. In other words, the fastest-growing part of AMD -- the data center -- is now also its largest.

Zoom out to the full year, and the trajectory looks just as steep. AMD grew 2025 revenue 34% to $34.6 billion and more than doubled its bottom line, with earnings up 164%. Its newest MI350 accelerators are ramping into large customers now, a next-generation MI450 part is on the way, and the company has landed commitments from hyperscale customers for multiple gigawatts of computing capacity. That kind of forward demand is why investors keep pushing the stock higher.

AMD's other businesses are pulling their weight, too. Its server processors have been steadily taking share from Intel, and management now expects the overall server-processor market to top $120 billion a year by 2030 -- a market that would dwarf the company's entire sales base today. Whether that proves too optimistic or not, it captures why the market is willing to price the stock years ahead of results actually on the books.

Could it hit $1 trillion this year?

The path is credible. To reach $1 trillion, AMD needs its stock to add about 1% -- and a company growing earnings this fast, in a market this enamored with AI, can cover that ground quickly. Nvidia crossed the same mark, and then several more, on the strength of the very same demand.

But just because the path is credible doesn't make the stock a buy. There are risks. For instance, AMD is up against a juggernaut. And Nvidia still dominates. Additionally, another key risk is that AMD's largest customers are designing in-house chips.

In addition, the stock's valuation is already stretched. At about $554 per share, AMD trades at more than 180 times its earnings and about 75 times the earnings expected over the next year. Multiples like that bake in years of rapid growth with very little margin for a stumble.

So, could AMD hit $1 trillion in 2026?

Yes -- I think there is a fair chance, and a strong quarter or two might be all it takes. But I wouldn't buy the growth stock just because this milestone is possible. Crossing $1 trillion would make headlines, but it wouldn't make the business's underlying intrinsic value worth more than the day before. At more than 180 times earnings, AMD is priced for the accelerator boom to keep running with almost no missteps.

Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.