Here's the Precise Timeline of When SpaceX Insiders Can Dump Their Shares on Retail Investors

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Elon Musk's SpaceX entered Wall Street's record books on June 12 by nearly tripling the largest-ever capital raise for an initial public offering (IPO).

  • SpaceX's staggered lockup period is right around the corner.

  • Insider sales, coupled with the likelihood of share-based dilution, bode poorly for retail investors.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›

Three weeks ago, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (NASDAQ: SPCX), etched its name in Wall Street's record books.

Prior to SpaceX, no public company had ever raised more than $29.4 billion from an initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' option. SpaceX practically tripled this figure by raising $85.7 billion from its June 12 IPO. It also made SpaceX one of America's largest businesses.

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But it'll take a lot more than IPO buzz and history-making moments to convince Wall Street that SpaceX is a stock retail investors should own. Despite several upcoming catalysts, including SpaceX's inclusion in the growth-focused Nasdaq-100, a massive potential fleecing of retail investors awaits, courtesy of the company's accelerated share lockup period.

A businessperson pressing the sell button on an oversized digital screen.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here's precisely when SpaceX's insiders can sell their shares

In addition to the largest-ever IPO capital raise, SpaceX's debut was unique in how few shares the company sold. While the 555.6 million shares sold might sound like a lot, it's less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares. Typically, companies that are going public sell 10% to 25% of their outstanding shares.

SpaceX's historically low float (i.e., tradable shares), coupled with forced buying by index funds -- SpaceX was or will be added to the Russell 1000, Russell 3000, and Nasdaq-100 -- can artificially boost its share price.

But this tailwind for SpaceX stock has a rapidly approaching end date. Once Musk's AI and space conglomerate reports its first quarterly operating results as a public company, currently estimated for Aug. 6, the clock starts ticking for insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) to sell their shares.

For early release-eligible shares, insider sales can begin two trading days following the first quarterly report. Here's the full breakdown for the early release unlock schedule:

  • After two full trading days following the first public quarterly report (20% of early release shares)
  • If SpaceX stock is 30% (or more) above its IPO price for five of 10 trading days ending on the second trading day after the first report (10%)
  • Calendar day 70 after its June 12 IPO (7%)
  • Calendar day 90 after IPO (7%)
  • Calendar day 105 after IPO (7%)
  • Calendar day 120 after IPO (7%)
  • Calendar day 135 after IPO (7%)
  • After two full trading days following its second public report in November (28%)
  • Calendar day 180 after IPO (7%)

On calendar day 366 after SpaceX's IPO, all remaining shares are eligible to be sold. This includes the shares held by CEO Elon Musk.

In other words, one of the largest wealth transfers in Wall Street's storied history, from SpaceX insiders to unsuspecting retail investors, is roughly a month away from commencing.

Not only will early release-eligible insiders have a clear path to cash in, but SpaceX's prospectus also outlined the likelihood of debt and equity capital raises for the foreseeable future. This can result in share-based dilution that provides added downside pressure on SpaceX stock.

Even with several early catalysts, SpaceX stock looks to be a landmine for retail investors.

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Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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