Is D-Wave Quantum a Buy?

Quantum computing's potential to accelerate complex computations opens a new frontier of technological innovation. Investors have piled into quantum computing stocks in anticipation of the investment opportunities quantum computing could create over the next decade.

D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), an early-stage quantum computing company that's begun ramping up its commercial operations, has been one of the hottest names in the space. Shares of D-Wave Quantum have traded between $12 and $46 over the past year and currently sit somewhere near the middle at $24 per share. With the business building momentum, is the stock a buy now? Here's why investors may want to hold off for now.

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The business is building momentum, but it's still early

D-Wave Quantum is developing annealing and gate-model quantum computer systems, software, and services for commercial applications. The company hasn't generated much revenue to date, as quantum computers aren't yet reliable enough for everyday commercial applications. The business is just getting started, with trailing-12-month revenue of just $12.4 million.

That said, D-Wave Quantum's order backlog took a big leap in the first quarter of 2026. The company sold a computer system to Florida Atlantic University for $20 million. It inked a $10 million agreement with a Fortune 100 customer for cloud-based access to quantum computing, which investors could think of as quantum computing-as-a-service.

Every contract D-Wave Quantum wins moves the needle at this stage, when the numbers are this small. As it stands now, analysts estimate that D-Wave Quantum will generate approximately $42.5 million in revenue this fiscal year, followed by $86.1 million the next.

Meanwhile, investors must still grapple with a steep valuation

Perspective is especially important when talking about a stock with a market cap of $8.4 billion. D-Wave Quantum is trading at roughly 200 times Wall Street's revenue estimates for this year, and 100 times next year's estimate. That makes D-Wave Quantum one of Wall Street's most expensive names, and that's assuming the company hits those revenue numbers over the next 18 months.

Typically, investors want to pay up for dominant companies with explosive growth. Sure, D-Wave Quantum could grow quickly from here, but that growth is coming on tiny numbers. The reality is that landing a couple of deals isn't nearly enough to give investors confidence that D-Wave Quantum can sustain its success.

It's also unclear just how D-Wave Quantum will slot into the industry's competitive landscape. There are other pure-play quantum computing companies, as well as deep-pocketed tech giants, developing their own technologies and systems. Investors who buy now are essentially banking on a best-case scenario, such as D-Wave Quantum becoming an industry leader. Investors won't know much until the broader quantum computing industry is much further along.

Right now, there's far more room for the stock to decline from there than to rise. Therefore, D-Wave Quantum is not a buy at the moment.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.