SpaceX Won't Be Free-Cash-Flow Positive Until 2029 and It's Already Taking on $25 Billion in Debt. Here's What That Means for Your Investment.

Space Exploration Technologies' (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO) has given investors access to a company that combines rocket launches, satellite broadband, mobile connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, although SpaceX has one of the strongest positions in the global space economy, it is still expected to burn cash for years.

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S&P Global Ratings, part of S&P Global, expects elevated capital spending to keep SpaceX's free cash flow negative through 2029, even after its blockbuster IPO. Hence, the company's growth story depends on when its other businesses become profitable.

SpaceX has plenty of growth drivers

SpaceX's connectivity segment, which includes the Starlink business, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in fiscal 2025. SpaceX also had about 10.3 million Starlink subscribers across 164 markets, and a $27.6 billion backlog at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending March 31, 2026).

Starlink is already a profitable satellite broadband business. The company claims that its rockets have carried more than 80% of the world's satellites and other cargo sent to orbit each year since 2023. SpaceX's Falcon rockets also have a mission success rate above 99%.

The next major catalyst is the Starship reusable rocket system. SpaceX expects its newer Starlink V3 satellites to carry far more internet capacity than current V2 satellites. A Falcon 9 launch can deploy about 2,600 gigabits per second of Starlink bandwidth, while a Starship launch could deploy about 61,000 gigabits per second. Hence, one Starship launch could add more than 20 times as much Starlink capacity, helping SpaceX expand the network faster and at lower cost.

SpaceX is also extending Starlink beyond home internet into satellite-to-phone service for ordinary smartphones. If adoption grows, this could add another robust revenue stream.

SpaceX also faces multiple challenges

SpaceX's next growth phase is consuming huge amounts of capital. The company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in fiscal 2025 and another $4.3 billion net loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Starlink is also facing pricing pressure, with average revenue per user falling from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

SpaceX's AI segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025 , but it also posted a $6.4 billion operating loss. The company also invested capex of around $12.7 billion in fiscal 2025 and another $7.7 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 in the AI business.

SpaceX had $29.1 billion of long-term debt at the end of the first quarter, including a $20 billion bridge loan. The company has launched a $25 billion bond sale, with proceeds expected to repay borrowings under that bridge loan and support general corporate purposes, including its capital-intensive AI expansion.

SpaceX has lost nearly $940 billion in market value from its early post-IPO peak near $225 (as of June 25, 2026), though it remained above its $135 IPO price. Despite the share price decline, the stock trades at nearly 76.5 times trailing-12-month sales. The premium valuation leaves little room for execution mistakes, especially when the company is still burning cash.

Hence, while SpaceX is not a weak company, investors should be aware that they are paying today for cash flows that may still be several years away.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.