Shell Sees Global LNG Demand Surging 65% By 2050 Despite a War-Driven Slowdown in 2026. Here's What Investors Need to Know.

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) recently released its latest outlook for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. The energy giant noted that while the war-driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause LNG demand to flatten out this year, it expects growth to resume in 2027 and rise 65% by 2050.

Here’s a look at Shell’s latest outlook and some LNG stocks capitalizing on this growth trend.

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A war-driven speedbump

About 20% of global LNG volumes flowed through the Strait of Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran earlier this year. Iran has retaliated by attacking ships trying to exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a steep drop in LNG traffic. Iran also attacked LNG infrastructure in Qatar, causing damage that could knock out 17% of its capacity for up to five years. ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) owned minority interests in two of the damaged LNG trains, while Shell holds a stake in a damaged gas-to-liquids facility.

U.S. LNG shippers have helped offset some of this supply disruption by ramping up exports, including a record 11.7 million metric tons (MT) in March. Meanwhile, U.S. export capacity got a boost in April when ExxonMobil and its partner QatarEnergy loaded the first cargo at their recently completed Golden Pass terminal.

Despite the surge in U.S. LNG exports, Shell expects that global LNG demand will be similar to last year’s level. That assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal later this summer.

While Shell sees flat demand this year, it expects growth to return to normal in 2027. It foresees growth continuing through 2050, when demand is projected to reach 700 million tonnes, a 65% increase from 2025 levels. Asia will be the main driver of LNG demand growth. Emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia will increasingly adopt the cleaner-burning fuel in place of coal. Meanwhile, mature markets like Japan will need more LNG to help power data centers.

More LNG investment is needed

Several energy companies are already building new LNG capacity to meet growing demand. However, Shell estimates that energy companies will need to build around an additional 200 million tonnes of new supply in the 2030s and 2040s to meet growing demand.

Shell is helping lead the charge to build more global LNG capacity. It has joint venture investments in two expansion projects in Qatar: North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS). It also has a minority stake in the Ruwais LNG project in the UAE. Meanwhile, Shell is evaluating an expansion of the recently completed LNG Canada terminal, which it could approve by the end of this year. As an LNG leader, Shell will likely continue to pursue new investments to grow global LNG capacity.

Meanwhile, LNG is one of ExxonMobil’s long-term growth catalysts. As noted, Exxon and QatarEnergy recently completed the Golden Pass LNG project. It’s also a partner with Shell on QatarEnergy’s NFE project. These projects are key drivers supporting its growth plan to 2030. Additionally, Exxon expects new LNG project start-ups in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique to fuel growth beyond 2030. Exxon is also reportedly evaluating a potential acquisition of Woodside Energy, which has leading LNG operations in Australia and a large-scale LNG development project in the U.S. (Louisiana LNG).

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is also expanding its global LNG platform. The U.S. oil and gas giant owns interests in the NFS and NFE projects. Additionally, it has an equity interest in Port Arthur LNG (phase 1) and an LNG supply contract for phase 2. The company also has an LNG supply agreement for Rio Grande LNG (Train 5). Those contracts are part of its aspiration to build a 10 to 15 MT per year portfolio of commercial LNG supply contracts from third-party facilities.

Capitalizing on growing global LNG demand

While LNG demand will flatten out this year due to supply disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, growth should resume next year and continue through 2050. That’s providing Shell, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and other large energy companies with multiple LNG investment opportunities. These investments should help fuel their growth in the coming decades, making them compelling energy stocks to buy and hold for the long term.

Matt DiLallo has positions in ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool recommends ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.