SpaceX Has Landed Data Center Deals With Anthropic, Google, and Reflection That Could Be Worth Over $76 Billion Through 2029. Is That Enough to Justify Its Valuation?

Many people and investors scoffed at Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) and its founder, Elon Musk, when the company sought to raise over $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. That's primarily because the company generated only about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, posted a nearly $2.6 billion operating loss, and incurred over $30 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

But SpaceX has shown that, beyond its space and Starlink businesses, it also has a burgeoning data center business that provides compute to some of the largest players in artificial intelligence (AI).

SpaceX has now inked deals with Anthropic, Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google, and an AI start-up called Reflection, potentially worth over $76 billion in revenue (collectively) between now and the end of 2029. Is this enough to justify SpaceX's massive valuation?

Image source: Getty Images.

There's no guarantee the deals will run through 2029 at current costs

Here's what each data center deal looks like: SpaceX provides these three companies access to its data centers, which host Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) and other AI infrastructure.

• Starting in May, Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, began paying SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through 2029, in a deal valued at over $40 billion.
• Google has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month, starting in October and continuing through June 2029, for access to Nvidia's GPUs and other data center infrastructure, including central processing units (CPUs) and memory. The deal is worth over $30 billion over its potential life.
• Starting in July, Reflection will pay $150 million per month for compute through 2029, valuing the deal at $6.3 billion over its life.

While it all sounds great, there's no guarantee that these deals will last. Each party may terminate the deal with 90 days' notice, typically effective at the beginning of 2027.

Commenting on the Anthropic deal for its Colossus data center in late May, Musk said he wasn't yet sure whether it would actually last through 2029.

"SpaceX has not committed to leasing Colossus for years, ​although it's possible that may be what happens," Musk ​wrote on his social media platform X, adding that the short-term ability to end the agreement was done at SpaceX's request and not Anthropic's. "We ⁠won't leave them hanging and will provide a reasonable off-ramp, but if compute gets super tight, ​I said we might need it back at ​some point."

This implies that SpaceX has plenty of demand for its data centers, but there's also a chance that compute doesn't stay this tight over the next three years and that pricing changes, so there are still many variables.

SpaceX's valuation still depends on things that haven't happened yet

Even if demand for compute stays this tight and Anthropic and Google choose to continue leasing SpaceX's data centers, SpaceX won't have enough capacity to simply keep scaling data center deals.

Anthropic's deal gives it access to over 300 megawatts (MW) of compute capacity. In its registration statement, SpaceX said its Colossus and Colossus II data centers collectively have about 1 gigawatt (GW) of compute power, with additional power capacity available for data center operations.

So it can't keep leasing unlimited compute. The company will have to build more data centers at some point, which are not cheap.

Don't get me wrong, if all three of these compute deals last through the end of 2029 at this pricing level, that will be a big positive for the company and will certainly help bolster the argument that the company deserves its current valuation.

But if SpaceX is really going to succeed as a stock and get to a $5 trillion or $10 trillion market cap, or even higher, it's going to have to make its vision of putting data centers in space a reality. This will require the company to get Starship, a fully reusable, heavy-lift launch rocket, fully operational.

In its registration statement, SpaceX says, "We expect to begin deploying our orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028." But I think investors should exercise heavy skepticism at this point.

Ultimately, while these initial data center deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection do show some of the company's potential, when you trade over a $2 trillion market cap, you need more than just potential.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.