What a $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Return by 2030

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has taken investors on a wild ride since its June 12 IPO. It went public at $135 per share, reached a record high of $225.64 on June 16, but now trades at about $150. That volatility wasn't surprising, since it was the biggest IPO in history, with a debut valuation of $1.77 trillion, and a divisive stock.

The bulls expect its aerospace and AI businesses to grow exponentially, while the bears believe it's speculative and overvalued. Let's review both arguments and see how much a $10,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth by the end of 2030.

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The bullish case for SpaceX

SpaceX's founder and CEO, Elon Musk, claims the company's annual revenue could reach $1 trillion by 2030. That would represent a 122% CAGR from its $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. Wall Street's analysts believe SpaceX's annual revenue could reach $330 billion to $470 billion, representing 5-year CAGRs of 78% and 91%, respectively, if everything goes right.

To hit those targets, SpaceX needs to aggressively expand its launch (Falcon and Starship), Starlink, and xAI businesses. Starship, its largest rocket ever, could reduce its cost to orbit to less than $100 per kilogram and wipe out its smaller competitors in space logistics.

Starlink, which already serves over 10.3 million subscribers, could gain tens of millions more users across the enterprise, maritime, aviation, and defense sectors. Starlink is already profitable, and its profits will surge even higher as economies of scale kick in.

The xAI segment, which handles Grok, X, Cursor, and other AI-related businesses, could evolve into an AI infrastructure company as it launches its first orbital data centers. It would support that expansion with its launch and Starlink businesses.

The bear case against SpaceX

The bears will point out that SpaceX is still unprofitable, since Starlink's profits aren't offsetting the steep losses in its space and AI divisions. At $2.04 trillion, it's already valued at 109 times last year's sales -- so it looks expensive relative to its past growth.

SpaceX recently diluted its investors with its $60 billion all-stock takeover of the AI coding start-up Cursor, and it just announced another $25 billion bond offering -- even though it raised a record $75 billion in its IPO. Those issues could all limit its gains, especially if interest rates surge and drive investors away from speculative stocks.

Where will SpaceX be in 2030?

I believe SpaceX will struggle to achieve its ambitious near-term goals -- which rely on hundreds of flawless launches, low interest rates, and rock-solid economic growth -- by 2030. Instead, a more realistic target might be a 30% CAGR (compared to its 33% revenue growth in 2025) from 2025 to 2030 -- which would still boost its revenue to $69.4 billion by the final year.

With a generous price-to-sales ratio of 30, it would have a market cap of $2.08 trillion in 2030. That 2% gain would only turn a $10,000 investment into about $10,200, so investors probably shouldn't go all-in on SpaceX until it posts its first quarterly reports.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.