Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile offer investors two very different ways to play the commercial space opportunity.
SpaceX’s limited public float may continue to support its stock, but it also changes the risk-reward profile for new investors.
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have important growth catalysts, but each still comes with execution and valuation risks.
Space Exploration Technologies' (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock is up nearly 37% (as of June 18) from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 per share. Reuters estimates that only about 3% to 4% of SpaceX's shares are publicly tradable. While the limited supply can keep pushing the stock higher, the scarcity also makes it less attractive to new investors, especially after a strong rally.
Instead, these two space stocks can prove to be better alternatives to SpaceX for retail investors.
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is already generating revenue and is backed by a robust order backlog, a history of launching rockets, and demand from the defense sector. The company is also set to join the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on June 22. An index inclusion can increase visibility and create demand from funds that track the index.
Rocket Lab's share price is down by around 6.6% (as of June 18) from the day before the SpaceX IPO. While that decline does not affect the company's business case, it gives retail investors a better entry point.
In the first quarter of 2026, Rocket Lab's revenue rose 63.5% year over year to $200.3 million, while its backlog reached about $2.2 billion. The company also signed 31 Electron (rockets to launch small satellites) and HASTE (hypersonic defense-testing rocket) contracts, and five Neutron (upcoming medium-lift rocket for larger missions) contracts during the first quarter.
The HASTE rocket is supported by a $190 million, 20-launch order tied to the Department of Defense-backed MACH-TB hypersonic testing program. HASTE also accounts for almost one-third of Rocket Lab's launch backlog. Rocket Lab has also signed its largest contract ever, covering five Neutron flights and three Electron launches through 2029, without cutting prices just to fill up the launch schedule.
Rocket Lab is currently trading at over 91 times sales, which is not cheap. But for investors willing to accept some valuation risk, the company appears to be a smart pick now.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is building a satellite network that can connect directly to ordinary smartphones, without users needing a satellite phone or special hardware. AST has partnerships with nearly 60 mobile network operators globally, and its ecosystem covers more than 3 billion subscribers. That could become a competitive advantage if its service works at scale.
The company's next major batch of BlueBird satellites is already in advanced production and assembly. AST is targeting six fully assembled satellites per month. The June 17 launch of three BlueBird satellites brought AST's launched satellite count to around 10. The company aims to have 45 satellites in orbit during 2026.
AST is also seeing traction in financial and operational metrics. The company recently reached a peak download speed of 98.9 megabits per second directly to ordinary smartphones. Revenue was only $14.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Management expects fiscal 2026 revenue to fall in the range of $150 million to $200 million.
SpaceX is valued above $2.4 trillion, while AST's market value is around $31.3 billion. If AST expands coverage and converts its telecom partnerships into recurring revenue, the business could grow faster from today's smaller base. Its execution risks are also easier to track through satellite launches, coverage, download speeds, and revenue growth.
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Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.