12 Months From Now, Will You Wish You'd Bought This Industrial Stock?

It's tempting to be sure. Although the stock's made no net progress since its collapse in early 2020, the company's backlog continues growing to record levels. It just received a huge number of orders from China, too, where a state-supported competitor operates.

Still, most investors are hesitant to take a swing, and understandably so.

The company in question is passenger jet maker Boeing (NYSE: BA). Here's some food for thought if the ticker is on your watch list but not yet in your portfolio.

The long-term stage is set (bullishly)

A quick-and-dirty recap of the past seven years: After years of development, two separate crashes of its lauded 737 MAX jets, in 2018 and 2019, followed by the airline industry's pandemic-prompted shutdown in 2020, have had Boeing on the ropes. Then, just when a ray of hope was finally starting to shine, a fresh round of economic malaise -- bolstered by the conflict with Iran -- undermined the budding rebound. Most major airlines are struggling with painfully high fuel costs that are upending smaller carriers like now-defunct Spirit. Airlines just aren't in a great position to purchase new planes.

They may have little choice in the matter, though. That's what Boeing's recent results suggest, anyway. The company's first-quarter revenue grew 14% year over year, chipping away at its lingering losses. Analysts expect similar progress through this year and into next, when the company's projected to swing back to a solid per-share profit of $4.11, en route to a bottom line of $7.83 per share in 2028.

The thing is, Boeing can -- and likely will -- reach this lofty profit target. Its backlog of business continues to swell despite broad economic headwinds, having grown to $695 million (over 6,100 aircraft) by the end of Q1.

Image source: Getty Images.

And that's still just the beginning. In its most recent industry outlook, Boeing predicts the world will take delivery of 43,600 commercial passenger jets between now and the end of 2044, bringing its total active aircraft count to 49,640. Yes, nearly all planes in use right now will be replaced by then, starting soon.

Somewhere in between

But the question remains: 12 months from now, will you wish you'd bought this stock today?

The best answer is a definitive "maybe."

From a valuation perspective, this stock's current price of about 50 times next year's anticipated earnings, and nearly 30 times 2028's expected per-share profits, isn't outrageous. But it is relatively steep for a company that moves slowly even in the best of times. That's also expensive given the raw reality that the global economy could slow down in the foreseeable future (particularly if the conflict in the Middle East lingers or, worse, escalates).

On the other hand, it's difficult to ignore the fact that the analyst community still mostly rates Boeing stock as a strong buy, with a 12-month consensus price target of $270.79 that's nearly 30% above the ticker's present price. Again, though, those are outlooks that assume the world maintains its status quo. If it doesn't, everything changes.

Conclusion? Boeing isn't a must-have name here, particularly if you're risk-averse or absolutely need great growth. There's not a lot of near-term downside, though. You could certainly do worse.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.