Trump Set to Make Final Decision on Iran. Gold Nears $4,600 Mark, Dow Jones Hits New Record High

Tradingkey - U.S. President Trump announced on Friday that he will make a final ruling on the preliminary agreement previously reached by U.S. and Iranian negotiators.

Core significance of the event

If formally signed, the Memorandum of Understanding would represent the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of the current U.S.-Iran conflict. However, to reach a comprehensive final agreement that satisfies Trump's nuclear demands, both parties still need to engage in several subsequent rounds of negotiations.

It is understood that the text of the MoU, which includes provisions for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was largely finalized this Tuesday. However, Trump has indicated to mediators that he requires more time for a final review.

Trump Makes Public Statement

On Friday morning, Trump posted an extensive message via Truth Social, detailing the core terms of the agreement he emphasized and signaling that its approval is imminent.

Trump explicitly demanded that Iran commit to "never developing or possessing nuclear weapons or a nuclear bomb"; the Strait of Hormuz must immediately allow for "unrestricted two-way navigation" without any transit fees, and Iran must immediately clear or detonate all remaining mines in the strait.

He simultaneously announced that the "unprecedented naval blockade" previously imposed by the U.S. has been officially lifted, and all vessels trapped in the strait due to the blockade may immediately begin their return voyages.

Market Reaction

Major asset markets fluctuated following the latest news regarding U.S.-Iran relations.

Gains in the three major U.S. stock index futures expanded, with only Dow futures rising unilaterally. As of press time, the Dow was up 0.74% at 51,044, hitting a fresh intraday record high; the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,585; and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.28% to 26,993.

Spot gold rose in the short term, briefly nearing the $4,600 mark. As of press time, it was up 1.67% at $4,571.13, while spot silver edged up 0.14% to $75.74.

Both major crude oil futures were under pressure. WTI crude futures once fell to $86 and remained down 1.45% at $87.61 as of press time; the more actively traded Brent August crude futures broke below $90, currently down 1.73% at 91.08%.

The U.S. Dollar Index weakened in the short term, falling 0.2% to 98.8. Yields on 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year U.S. Treasuries all declined, standing at 3.994%, 4.132%, and 4.436% respectively as of press time.

Key disagreements in the agreement

Notably, the current Memorandum of Understanding only stipulates that Iran agrees to enter negotiations regarding its nuclear program and does not include any specific terms for nuclear concessions.

Trump stated in a post that Iran’s deeply buried enriched uranium will be fully excavated and destroyed through close collaboration between the U.S., the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the IAEA. However, U.S. officials later clarified that the U.S. has currently only secured oral commitments from Iran regarding nuclear materials, and the final outcome will depend on a formal written agreement reached through official negotiations.

Regarding the issue of Iran’s frozen funds, which has drawn widespread attention, Trump stated clearly: "Until further notice, there will be no exchange of funds."