The narrative surrounding Microsoft's AI spending plans for this year has been decidedly bearish. Just take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
You don't need the "next Nvidia." The current Nvidia will still do just fine.
The sellers have priced far too much pessimism into Monday.com shares.
The transition from the first to the second quarter is now in the rearview mirror for investors and they've had time to digest the conflict in the Middle East, so they are once again able to make some non-panicked assessments. And one of those assessments is that, while many artificial intelligence (AI) stocks undeniably raced well ahead of their underlying businesses to reach outrageous valuations, AI is still a viable, investment-worthy opportunity. You just need to be smart about which of these stocks you're buying, and when you're buying them.
To this end, here's a rundown of the top three AI stocks I'd want to own heading into the heart of Q2 2026.
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No, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) hasn't led any aspect of the AI revolution yet. It's trailing Amazon on the cloud computing front, while its AI-powered chatbot Copilot's market share is half that of Google Gemini, according to Statcounter, both of which are still miles behind ChatGPT. And, while Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Kevin Scott has teased the idea of eventually relying on its own artificial intelligence data center processors, the software giant is still dependent on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and other more established chipmakers.
In the meantime, Microsoft shares are still down more than 30% from their October peak, largely because of the company's swell of spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure ($37.5 billion in capital expenditures last quarter alone, up 66% year over year) that isn't producing comparable revenue or earnings growth.
Just wait. What the bears aren't fully appreciating here is the time it takes for AI investments to begin generating revenue, and how long they can once they do. As Microsoft CFO Amy Hood explained during the most recent quarterly earnings call, "roughly two-thirds of our [capital expenditures] was on short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs ...[while] the remaining spend was for long-lived assets that will support monetization for the next 15 years and beyond."
Hood added, "Our customer demand continues to exceed our supply." Underscoring her claim is the company's total backlog of $625 billion, nearly half of which is linked to its partnership with OpenAI, and roughly half of which should be reported as revenue over the coming couple of years.
Investors should start to see and understand this dynamic soon, setting the stage for the stock's overdue turnaround.
It's been a lackluster past few months for Nvidia shareholders. After soaring over 2023 and 2024 and into the first half of 2025, since August, this stock's gone nowhere. Not only are investors broadly worried that artificial intelligence stocks are in a bubble that's on the verge of bursting, but many investors recognize that Nvidia is finally facing serious competition on the AI computer processor front.
What most people searching for the next Nvidia arguably don't realize, however, is that there's nothing wrong with the current Nvidia. Its revenue is projected to grow more than 70% this year as the rise of inference computing is creating soaring demand for its Grace Blackwell GPUs, while top-line growth in the ballpark of 30% is in the cards for next year. Per-share earnings are projected to grow at a similar pace.
Image source: Getty Images.
And that's the crux of the bullish argument here. While Nvidia stock may be relatively expensive at nearly 40 times its net profits for the past four reported quarters, it's only trading at about 17 times next year's expected earnings. That's cheap.
Obviously, a complete collapse of the artificial intelligence industry could undermine the roughly $700 billion that the biggest technology names in the business have earmarked for AI infrastructure investments this year.
Be realistic, though. Even if artificial intelligence isn't quite bearing the fruit it was initially hoped to produce, its potential is clear. Enterprise-driven demand for AI hardware should continue outpacing its supply. Indeed, industry research outfit Technavio expects the inference hardware market alone to grow at an average annual pace of more than 20% through 2030, presumably led by current GPU titan Nvidia.
Finally, unless you use its solutions at your place of work, there's a good chance you've never even heard of Monday.com (NASDAQ: MNDY); its market cap of $3 billion just doesn't turn many heads.
Don't be fooled by its small size, though. Monday.com packs a relatively big punch, with revenue growth projected at 18% this year and 17% next year. And, unlike so many of its artificial intelligence peers, this company's consistently profitable, and increasingly so.
But what is it? In simplest terms, Monday.com allows companies to automate computer work that would otherwise need to be done manually. From personal AI assistants for employees to AI-powered customer service agents to decision-intelligence to project management (and more), this company's solutions save time and money by improving efficiency.
And it's great at what it does. Technology consulting and market research outfit Gartner recently named Monday.com one of the best service providers in the marketing management platform space, as Gartner also did for its collaborative work management solution, and for its project management and reporting app.
So why is the stock down 80% from June's high? Some of this weakness may reflect concern over its admittedly high valuation, while a big chunk of the pullback can be chalked up to broad weakness from most artificial intelligence tickers during this time frame.
The sellers, however, have arguably overshot their target. Monday.com has already proven the marketability of its products, and now that its customers are using them, it's difficult for them to stop. Indeed, practically all of its revenue is recurring revenue that doesn't need to be fought for and won over and over again. The company just needs to add customers... which it is.
The analyst community thinks the bears overshot their target. Their consensus target of $112.61 per share, in fact, is more than 80% above the stock's present price.
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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, Monday.com, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.